【摘要】：洪澇災(zāi)害、干旱缺水和水生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化等三大水問(wèn)題是制約我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的重要因素。太湖流域位于長(zhǎng)江三角洲南緣,濱江臨海,地勢(shì)低洼,受風(fēng)暴潮和長(zhǎng)江洪水的雙重威脅。針對(duì)太湖流域“雨量充沛、洪澇頻繁,地勢(shì)低洼、容易成災(zāi),太湖水位易漲難落、險(xiǎn)情不斷,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)、均淹不得”的防洪特點(diǎn),建立太湖流域水文預(yù)報(bào)與調(diào)度系統(tǒng),能夠依據(jù)實(shí)時(shí)雨、水、工情信息和天氣預(yù)報(bào),在計(jì)算機(jī)上快速進(jìn)行水文預(yù)報(bào)計(jì)算,以人機(jī)交互方式制定實(shí)時(shí)調(diào)度方案,進(jìn)行調(diào)度方案仿真,并且具有水文預(yù)報(bào)調(diào)度數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)處理、水文調(diào)度信息查詢、水文預(yù)報(bào)調(diào)度報(bào)告編制、系統(tǒng)管理等輔助功能,對(duì)于輔助防洪減災(zāi)、水資源調(diào)度、水污染防控等具有重大的生產(chǎn)實(shí)踐價(jià)值和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。 為探究氣候變化條件下太湖流域山丘區(qū)的水文氣象要素變化規(guī)律,本研究中首先要對(duì)太湖流域山丘區(qū)進(jìn)行了分布式水文模擬,然后在此基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行洪水預(yù)報(bào)方案精度分析,以期為太湖流域防洪決策提供科學(xué)參考。 本文根據(jù)太湖流域山丘區(qū)的流域信息、土地利用及土壤利用類(lèi)型、水文氣象數(shù)據(jù)等,基于EasyDHM水文模擬平臺(tái),構(gòu)建了太湖流域山丘區(qū)分布式水文模型。并在此基礎(chǔ)上完成了典型參數(shù)分區(qū)的參數(shù)率定與驗(yàn)證工作,取得了較好的模擬效果,實(shí)現(xiàn)了該流域的分布式洪水預(yù)報(bào)方案�？傮w來(lái)看,基于分布式水文模型的洪水預(yù)報(bào)方案,整體達(dá)到了乙級(jí)以上預(yù)報(bào)水平,局部可以達(dá)到甲級(jí)預(yù)報(bào)水平。在五個(gè)測(cè)站的洪水預(yù)報(bào)評(píng)價(jià)中,預(yù)報(bào)精度等級(jí)達(dá)到甲級(jí)的站點(diǎn)有1個(gè),剩余4個(gè)站點(diǎn)中,有兩個(gè)站的預(yù)報(bào)合格率也達(dá)到了80%,說(shuō)明分布式水文模型EasyDHM在太湖流域山區(qū)地區(qū)洪水模擬中運(yùn)用良好,預(yù)報(bào)方案精度均達(dá)到或接近甲級(jí),可用于太湖流域山丘地區(qū)的短期洪水預(yù)報(bào)。EasyDHM模型結(jié)構(gòu)清晰,參數(shù)具有物理意義,適用范圍廣泛,實(shí)用性較強(qiáng),并且得到了精度較高的模擬結(jié)果,為分布式水文模型在實(shí)際的洪水預(yù)報(bào)奠定了基礎(chǔ)。
[Abstract]:Three major water problems, such as flood disaster, drought and water shortage, and deterioration of water ecological environment, are the important factors restricting the economic and social development of our country. Taihu Lake basin is located in the southern margin of the Yangtze River Delta. It is low-lying and is threatened by storm surge and flood of the Yangtze River. In view of the flood control features of "abundant rainfall, frequent flooding, low-lying topography, easy disaster formation, easy rise and fall of water level in Taihu Lake, continuous danger and economic development, and no flooding", a hydrological forecasting and regulation system was established in the Taihu Lake Basin. According to the real-time rain, water, working condition information and weather forecast, we can quickly calculate the hydrological forecast on the computer, draw up the real-time dispatching scheme in the way of man-machine interaction, carry on the dispatching scheme simulation, and have the hydrologic forecast dispatching data pretreatment. The auxiliary functions such as query of hydrologic dispatching information, compilation of hydrological forecast and dispatching report, system management and so on, are of great practical value and social and economic benefits for assisting flood control and disaster reduction, water resource dispatching, water pollution prevention and control, and so on. In order to explore the changing rule of hydrometeorological elements in the hilly area of Taihu Lake Basin under climate change, the distributed hydrological simulation was first carried out in this study, and then the accuracy analysis of flood forecasting scheme was carried out on the basis of this. In order to provide scientific reference for flood control decision-making in Taihu Lake Basin. Based on the watershed information, land use and soil use types, hydrometeorological data and EasyDHM hydrological simulation platform, a distributed hydrological model for the hilly area of Taihu Lake basin was established in this paper. On this basis, the parameter calibration and verification of typical parameter partition is completed, and good simulation results are obtained, and the distributed flood forecasting scheme of the basin is realized. In general, the flood forecasting scheme based on the distributed hydrological model has reached the level above Grade B and can reach the level of Class A forecast in some areas. Of the five stations for flood forecasting and evaluation, one has a grade A forecast accuracy, and two of the remaining four stations have reached 80 percent of the forecast qualified rate. The results show that the distributed hydrological model EasyDHM is well used in flood simulation in the mountainous areas of Taihu Lake Basin, and the accuracy of the forecasting scheme is up to or near Grade A, which can be used for short-term flood forecasting in the hilly areas of the Taihu Lake Basin. The structure of the EasyDHM model is clear. The parameters have physical significance, wide range of application and strong practicability. The simulation results with high accuracy are obtained, which lays a foundation for the distributed hydrological model to forecast the flood in practice.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：P338;P334.92

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