【摘要】：徑流演變特征研究可為在變化環(huán)境下制定流域水資源規(guī)劃、建立流域水文響應(yīng)機(jī)制提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。以沙潁河流域代表水文站阜陽站為例,運(yùn)用M-K檢驗(yàn)法和小波分析法分析了1956年-2011年徑流變化特征,并從氣候變化及人類活動(dòng)的角度分析了徑流變化的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。結(jié)果表明:沙潁河阜陽站徑流總體呈下降趨勢(shì),但下降趨勢(shì)不明顯,總體未達(dá)到95%顯著性水平;在1966年前后存在明顯的突變點(diǎn);徑流存在13a、26a兩類周期變化特性,周期演變過程受人類活動(dòng)影響顯著。就驅(qū)動(dòng)因素而言,人類活動(dòng)對(duì)徑流變化的貢獻(xiàn)率在65%以上,氣候變化對(duì)徑流變化的影響較弱,表現(xiàn)為從負(fù)向到正向的趨勢(shì)。
[Abstract]:The study on the characteristics of runoff evolution can provide a scientific basis for making water resources planning and establishing hydrological response mechanism in the basin under the changing environment. Taking Fuyang station, a typical hydrological station in Shaying River Basin, as an example, the characteristics of runoff change from 1956 to 2011 were analyzed by using the method of M\ + K test and wavelet analysis, and the main driving factors of runoff change were analyzed from the point of view of climate change and human activities. The results show that the runoff in Fuyang station of Shaying River shows a general downward trend, but the decreasing trend is not obvious, the overall level is not 95% significant, and there is an obvious mutation point before and after 1966. There are two kinds of periodic variation characteristics of runoff in the past 13 years and 26 years, and the periodic evolution process is influenced by human activities significantly. As far as driving factors are concerned, the contribution rate of human activities to runoff change is more than 65%, and the influence of climate change on runoff change is weak, showing a trend from negative to positive.
【作者單位】： 鄭州大學(xué)水利與環(huán)境學(xué)院;鄭州大學(xué)水科學(xué)研究中心;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金(51279183;51509222) 鄭州大學(xué)重大科技項(xiàng)目培育基金(2015ZDPY01)~~
【分類號(hào)】：P333
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本文編號(hào)：2457750