發(fā)布時間：2019-03-09 16:03

【摘要】：基于汀江流域控制站(溪口站)1965—2012年日均徑流量實(shí)測數(shù)據(jù)及長汀、上杭、永定氣象站逐日降水量、逐日氣溫資料,采用年段均值比較、5a滑動、趨勢線分析和累積距平等方法,分析流域近50年來的徑流量序列,揭示徑流量變化的趨勢,判別徑流量變化的突變年份,劃分徑流量變化的階段.并應(yīng)用改進(jìn)后的累積量斜率變化率比較法定量估算了近50年來氣候變化和人類活動對汀江徑流量變化的貢獻(xiàn)率.結(jié)果表明:(1)徑流量總體呈現(xiàn)下降—上升—下降的波動,判別突變年份為1972、2001年,劃分徑流變化階段為1965—1972年(A階段)、1973—2001年(B階段)、2002—2012年(C階段);(2)與A階段相比,B、C階段氣候變化對徑流量變化的貢獻(xiàn)率分別為65.1%、50.5%,而人類活動對徑流量變化的貢獻(xiàn)率為34.9%、49.5%,可見人類活動對徑流量變化貢獻(xiàn)日趨突出.
[Abstract]:Based on the daily mean runoff data from 1965 to 2012 and Changting, Shanghang and Yongding meteorological stations, daily precipitation and daily temperature data were measured at the Ting River Basin Control Station (Xikou Station). The annual mean value was compared and the annual mean value was compared for 5 years. Trend line analysis and cumulative distance equality method are used to analyze runoff series in the past 50 years, to reveal the trend of runoff change, to distinguish the abrupt year of runoff change and to divide the stages of runoff change. The contribution rate of climate change and human activities to the variation of Ting River runoff in the last 50 years is quantitatively estimated by using the improved comparison method of slope change rate of cumulant quantity. The results are as follows: (1) the total runoff fluctuates from decline to rise-decline, and the year of abrupt change is 1972. In 2001, runoff was divided into three stages: 1965-1972 (stage A), 1973-2001 (stage B) and 2002-2012 (stage C). (2) compared with stage A, the contribution rate of climate change to runoff in stage B and C was 65.1% and 50.5% respectively, while the contribution rate of human activities to runoff change was 34.9% and 49.5%, respectively. It can be seen that the contribution of human activities to the change of runoff is becoming more and more prominent.
【作者單位】： 華南師范大學(xué)地理科學(xué)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(41471147)
【分類號】：P333.1;P467

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