【摘要】：鑒于典型暴雨在資料缺乏的中小流域水文設計時的重要性,考慮到典型暴雨本身具有灰色性、模糊性及隨機性,從水文設計的安全性與樣本集的整體性考慮,確定能反映暴雨特性的因子指標,采用可能度法計算各指標的權重,在典型暴雨灰加權關聯(lián)度綜合評價模型、典型暴雨模糊加權模式識別模型及典型暴雨貝葉斯加權評價模型三個單一模型的基礎上,構建了基于貝葉斯理論的典型暴雨灰色模糊優(yōu)選綜合模型,以優(yōu)選典型暴雨。實例應用結果表明,單一模型及綜合模型均給出了選擇典型暴雨的定量計算方法,得到了典型暴雨的可行性解集,彌補了傳統(tǒng)定性選擇典型暴雨主觀隨意性較大的不足,其中綜合模型得到的可行性解集更可靠,解集中各元素的離散程度大,更便于典型暴雨的優(yōu)選。
[Abstract]:In view of the importance of typical rainstorm in the hydrological design of small and medium watersheds where data are lacking, considering that the typical rainstorm itself is grey, fuzzy and random, the safety of hydrological design and the integrity of sample set are considered. The factor index which can reflect the characteristics of rainstorm is determined, and the weight of each index is calculated by the possibility method, and the comprehensive evaluation model of grey weighted correlation degree of typical rainstorm is established. On the basis of three single models of typical rainstorm fuzzy weighted pattern recognition model and typical rainstorm Bayesian weighted evaluation model, the grey fuzzy optimal comprehensive model of typical rainstorm is constructed based on Bayesian theory to select typical rainstorm. The application results show that both the single model and the comprehensive model give the quantitative calculation method for selecting typical rainstorm, and obtain the feasible solution set of typical rainstorm, which makes up for the deficiency of traditional qualitative selection of typical rainstorm with large subjective randomness. The feasible solution set obtained by the synthetic model is more reliable, and the discrete degree of each element in the solution set is large, which is more convenient for the selection of typical rainstorm.
【作者單位】： 陜西省地質調查中心;武警水電第一支隊;
【分類號】：TV125
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本文編號：2408069