干旱區(qū)社會(huì)水文系統(tǒng)演化規(guī)律與驅(qū)動(dòng)機(jī)制研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-01-05 18:31
【摘要】：在“人類紀(jì)”時(shí)代,人類社會(huì)與自然生態(tài)組成耦合的社會(huì)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。水作為自然生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的核心要素,與人類社會(huì)也存在密切的相互作用,組成耦合的社會(huì)水文系統(tǒng)。干旱區(qū)社會(huì)水文系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部的耦合反饋?zhàn)饔酶訌?qiáng)烈。研究干旱區(qū)社會(huì)水文系統(tǒng)演化規(guī)律及其驅(qū)動(dòng)機(jī)制,對(duì)揭示人水相互作用機(jī)理、發(fā)展相關(guān)理論和方法、制定水資源管理政策具有重要的學(xué)術(shù)意義和實(shí)踐價(jià)值。構(gòu)建了基于自然-社會(huì)二元驅(qū)動(dòng)機(jī)制的社會(huì)水文系統(tǒng)動(dòng)態(tài)演變分析的理論框架,并構(gòu)建了基于水量平衡-經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)-社會(huì)決策三層次的社會(huì)水文模型框架,提出社會(huì)生產(chǎn)力與自然系統(tǒng)變異性之間的相互作用是社會(huì)水文系統(tǒng)演化的動(dòng)力基礎(chǔ)。開展了塔里木河流域2000年社會(huì)水文動(dòng)態(tài)演化歷史的階段分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)外部社會(huì)輸入的技術(shù)與制度因素長(zhǎng)期主導(dǎo)了當(dāng)?shù)厣鐣?huì)水文系統(tǒng)發(fā)展階段的演替。進(jìn)一步針對(duì)巴州地區(qū)1960-2010年的社會(huì)水文動(dòng)態(tài)演化歷史的分析表明,在社會(huì)生產(chǎn)力逐漸成為社會(huì)水文系統(tǒng)演化的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力的同時(shí),自然條件如水土資源的約束也對(duì)社會(huì)生產(chǎn)力發(fā)展起著關(guān)鍵的塑造作用。為改進(jìn)對(duì)社會(huì)決策過程的刻畫,定義了表征政策決策者進(jìn)行耕地-節(jié)水政策調(diào)控意愿的“決策者敏感度”概念,對(duì)政策變量進(jìn)行結(jié)構(gòu)化定量表達(dá),從而實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)政策演變過程的動(dòng)態(tài)模擬。在此基礎(chǔ)上耦合水量平衡和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)模型建立了概念性社會(huì)水文模型,模擬了巴州地區(qū)1998-2010年間節(jié)水農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展及耕地和節(jié)水政策的自適應(yīng)演變過程,揭示了技術(shù)進(jìn)步的回彈效應(yīng)與政策調(diào)控的適應(yīng)效應(yīng)對(duì)灌溉效率悖論現(xiàn)象演變的作用機(jī)理。基于多種社會(huì)調(diào)查方法,比較分析了不同人群對(duì)節(jié)水措施的認(rèn)識(shí),揭示了由于缺乏對(duì)水土資源協(xié)調(diào)利用的認(rèn)知,導(dǎo)致節(jié)水農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展時(shí)耕地政策過度寬松的社會(huì)深層原因。在此基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用干旱區(qū)節(jié)水農(nóng)業(yè)的社會(huì)水文模型,以巴州為例模擬比較了不同初始耕地政策方案對(duì)灌溉效率悖論的影響。結(jié)果表明,提前采取模型預(yù)測(cè)的嚴(yán)格耕地政策,可能導(dǎo)致灌溉效率悖論提前發(fā)生,且由于灌溉面積增長(zhǎng)緩慢而嚴(yán)重傷害農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展;干旱區(qū)節(jié)水農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的初期,在考慮社會(huì)水文系統(tǒng)存在耦合反饋的基礎(chǔ)上采取適當(dāng)寬松的耕地政策措施,更有利于經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的可持續(xù)性發(fā)展。研究成果可為干旱區(qū)節(jié)水農(nóng)業(yè)的政策制定提供參考。
[Abstract]:In the era of the "Human Age", human society and natural ecology constitute a coupled social ecosystem. Water, as the core element of natural ecosystem, also has close interaction with human society to form a coupled social hydrological system. The coupling feedback within the social hydrological system in arid area is stronger. It is of great academic significance and practical value to study the evolution law and driving mechanism of social hydrological system in arid areas, to reveal the mechanism of human-water interaction, to develop relevant theories and methods, and to formulate water resources management policies. The theoretical framework of dynamic evolution analysis of social hydrological system based on natural and social dual driving mechanism is constructed, and the framework of social hydrological model based on three levels of water balance, economic activity and social decision-making is constructed. It is proposed that the interaction between social productivity and variability of natural system is the dynamic basis of the evolution of social hydrological system. The stage analysis of the social hydrological dynamic evolution history in the Tarim River Basin in 2000 is carried out. It is found that the technical and institutional factors imported by the external society have dominated the succession of the local social hydrological system for a long time. The further analysis of the history of social hydrological dynamic evolution from 1960 to 2010 in Bazhou shows that, while social productivity gradually becomes the main driving force of the evolution of social hydrological system, Natural conditions such as the constraints of soil and water resources also play a key role in shaping the development of social productive forces. In order to improve the depiction of the social decision-making process, the concept of "decision-maker sensitivity", which represents the policy decision makers' willingness to regulate and control arable land and water saving policies, is defined, and the policy variables are expressed quantitatively and structurally. In order to realize the dynamic simulation of the policy evolution process. On the basis of this, a conceptual social hydrological model is established by coupling water balance and macroeconomic models, which simulates the development of water-saving agriculture and the adaptive evolution of cultivated land and water-saving policies in Bazhou region during the period 1998-2010. The mechanism of rebound effect of technological progress and adaptive effect of policy regulation on the evolution of paradoxical phenomenon of irrigation efficiency was revealed. Based on a variety of social investigation methods, this paper compares and analyzes the understanding of water-saving measures among different population groups, and reveals the deep social reasons for the excessive looseness of cultivated land policy in the development of water-saving agriculture due to the lack of understanding of the coordinated utilization of water and soil resources. On this basis, the social and hydrological model of water-saving agriculture in arid area was used to simulate and compare the effects of different initial cultivated land policy schemes on irrigation efficiency paradox with Bazhou as an example. The results show that the strict cultivated land policy adopted in advance may lead to the paradox of irrigation efficiency occurring in advance, and the slow growth of irrigated area will seriously harm the development of agricultural economy. In the early stage of the development of water-saving agriculture in arid area, it is more beneficial to the sustainable development of economy and society to adopt appropriate policy measures of loose cultivated land on the basis of considering the coupling feedback of social hydrological system. The research results can provide a reference for the policy formulation of water-saving agriculture in arid area.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4
，
本文編號(hào)：2402145
[Abstract]:In the era of the "Human Age", human society and natural ecology constitute a coupled social ecosystem. Water, as the core element of natural ecosystem, also has close interaction with human society to form a coupled social hydrological system. The coupling feedback within the social hydrological system in arid area is stronger. It is of great academic significance and practical value to study the evolution law and driving mechanism of social hydrological system in arid areas, to reveal the mechanism of human-water interaction, to develop relevant theories and methods, and to formulate water resources management policies. The theoretical framework of dynamic evolution analysis of social hydrological system based on natural and social dual driving mechanism is constructed, and the framework of social hydrological model based on three levels of water balance, economic activity and social decision-making is constructed. It is proposed that the interaction between social productivity and variability of natural system is the dynamic basis of the evolution of social hydrological system. The stage analysis of the social hydrological dynamic evolution history in the Tarim River Basin in 2000 is carried out. It is found that the technical and institutional factors imported by the external society have dominated the succession of the local social hydrological system for a long time. The further analysis of the history of social hydrological dynamic evolution from 1960 to 2010 in Bazhou shows that, while social productivity gradually becomes the main driving force of the evolution of social hydrological system, Natural conditions such as the constraints of soil and water resources also play a key role in shaping the development of social productive forces. In order to improve the depiction of the social decision-making process, the concept of "decision-maker sensitivity", which represents the policy decision makers' willingness to regulate and control arable land and water saving policies, is defined, and the policy variables are expressed quantitatively and structurally. In order to realize the dynamic simulation of the policy evolution process. On the basis of this, a conceptual social hydrological model is established by coupling water balance and macroeconomic models, which simulates the development of water-saving agriculture and the adaptive evolution of cultivated land and water-saving policies in Bazhou region during the period 1998-2010. The mechanism of rebound effect of technological progress and adaptive effect of policy regulation on the evolution of paradoxical phenomenon of irrigation efficiency was revealed. Based on a variety of social investigation methods, this paper compares and analyzes the understanding of water-saving measures among different population groups, and reveals the deep social reasons for the excessive looseness of cultivated land policy in the development of water-saving agriculture due to the lack of understanding of the coordinated utilization of water and soil resources. On this basis, the social and hydrological model of water-saving agriculture in arid area was used to simulate and compare the effects of different initial cultivated land policy schemes on irrigation efficiency paradox with Bazhou as an example. The results show that the strict cultivated land policy adopted in advance may lead to the paradox of irrigation efficiency occurring in advance, and the slow growth of irrigated area will seriously harm the development of agricultural economy. In the early stage of the development of water-saving agriculture in arid area, it is more beneficial to the sustainable development of economy and society to adopt appropriate policy measures of loose cultivated land on the basis of considering the coupling feedback of social hydrological system. The research results can provide a reference for the policy formulation of water-saving agriculture in arid area.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4
，
本文編號(hào)：2402145
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