【摘要】：錢塘江在杭州灣處呈現(xiàn)的喇叭口形狀造就其獨特的風(fēng)景錢塘江大潮。但是，在人們領(lǐng)略大自然這一奇特魅力的同時，錢塘江涌潮也給人們帶來了不可忽視的災(zāi)害，幾乎每年都會發(fā)生多起錢塘江潮水卷人事件。如果能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)對涌潮的準(zhǔn)確預(yù)報，就可以增強(qiáng)防災(zāi)預(yù)案的針對性和可操作性，方便相關(guān)部門開展防潮工作，從而減少事故的發(fā)生。文中提出一種基于水位數(shù)據(jù)的“黑箱”建模方法，并在該方法的基礎(chǔ)上開發(fā)了錢塘江涌潮自動檢測與實時預(yù)報系統(tǒng)，其主要工作如下： （1）介紹了基于統(tǒng)計規(guī)律的涌潮預(yù)報方法、基于調(diào)和分析的涌潮預(yù)報方法和基于水動力學(xué)的涌潮預(yù)報方法。針對上述三種預(yù)報方法存在的問題，研究一種具有自學(xué)習(xí)、自適應(yīng)功能的預(yù)報算法。文中提出了一種基于歷史水位數(shù)據(jù)的“黑箱”建模方法，通過“黑箱”建模最終確定了判斷涌潮到達(dá)的具體條件，并且提出了相應(yīng)的涌潮分段實時預(yù)報方法，以滿足錢塘江涌潮預(yù)報的需求。 （2）針對歷史水位數(shù)據(jù)中存在的問題（數(shù)據(jù)擾動、不符合規(guī)律等），對錢塘江進(jìn)行實地調(diào)研，分析流速輔助判斷的必要性，并基于Android操作系統(tǒng)設(shè)計流速檢測裝置以采集SurfaceVelocity Radar (SVR)流速儀數(shù)據(jù)。對涌潮自動監(jiān)測站進(jìn)行了升級試點改造，新增SVR流速儀并設(shè)計適配器以消除紊流對流速測量的影響。 （3）將采集到的現(xiàn)場數(shù)據(jù)通過GPRS/GSM網(wǎng)絡(luò)傳輸?shù)剿恼痉⻊?wù)器。開發(fā)錢塘江涌潮預(yù)報軟件，對文中提出的涌潮分段實時預(yù)報方法進(jìn)行具體實現(xiàn)，并將預(yù)報結(jié)果存至實時預(yù)報數(shù)據(jù)庫中，以便預(yù)報信息發(fā)布。 （4）為方便對涌潮實時預(yù)報信息的查看，對錢塘江涌潮實時預(yù)報網(wǎng)站進(jìn)行設(shè)計開發(fā)。通過調(diào)用google地圖以及文本形式兩種方式，實現(xiàn)預(yù)報信息的顯示模塊；設(shè)計管理員控制模塊，系統(tǒng)管理員可通過該網(wǎng)站對預(yù)報信息進(jìn)行修正，方便其對涌潮預(yù)報信息的管理。 （5）對系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行實際運行，，以測試該預(yù)報方法的性能。將預(yù)報結(jié)果與實際涌潮信息進(jìn)行對比分析可知，文中提出的預(yù)報方法具有較高的精度，滿足了人們對錢塘江涌潮實時預(yù)報的需求。
[Abstract]:Qiantang River in Hangzhou Bay in the shape of a bell-mouth to create its unique scenery Qiantang River tide. However, while people appreciate the peculiar charm of nature, the tidal current of Qiantang River also brings people disasters that can not be ignored. Almost every year, there are many incidents of people in Qiantang River. If the accurate prediction of tidal bore can be realized, the pertinence and maneuverability of disaster prevention plan can be enhanced, and it is convenient for relevant departments to carry out dampproof work, thus reducing the occurrence of accidents. In this paper, a "black box" modeling method based on water level data is proposed, and a system for automatic detection and real-time prediction of tidal bore in Qiantang River is developed on the basis of this method. The main work is as follows: (1) the methods of tidal bore prediction based on statistical law, tidal bore prediction method based on harmonic analysis and hydrodynamic method are introduced. Aiming at the problems of the three forecasting methods mentioned above, a prediction algorithm with self-learning and adaptive function is studied. In this paper, a "black box" modeling method based on historical water level data is proposed. Through the "black box" modeling, the specific conditions for judging the arrival of tidal bore are finally determined, and the corresponding real-time prediction method of tidal bore section is put forward. In order to meet the demand of tidal bore forecast in Qiantang River. (2) in view of the problems existing in the historical water level data (data disturbance, not in accordance with the law, etc.), the paper carries out field investigation on Qiantang River, and analyzes the necessity of velocity assistant judgment. And based on the Android operating system, the device is designed to collect the data of SurfaceVelocity Radar (SVR) current meter. The automatic monitoring station of tidal bore was upgraded and the SVR current meter was added and an adapter was designed to eliminate the impact of turbulence on the velocity measurement. (3) the collected field data was transmitted to the hydrologic station server via the GPRS/GSM network. The software for forecasting tidal bore in Qiantang River is developed, and the method of real-time forecast of tidal bore in this paper is realized in detail, and the forecast results are stored in the real time forecast database. (4) for the convenience of viewing the real-time forecast information of tidal bore, the real-time forecasting website of tidal bore in Qiantang River is designed and developed. By calling google map and text form, the display module of forecast information is realized, and the administrator control module is designed, and the system administrator can modify the forecast information through the website. It is convenient to manage the tidal bore forecast information. (5) the system is operated in practice to test the performance of the forecasting method. By comparing the forecast results with the actual tidal bore information, it can be seen that the method proposed in this paper has a high accuracy and meets the demand of real time forecast of tidal bore in Qiantang River.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：杭州電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：P332.3;P338

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