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基于水文地質(zhì)參數(shù)敏感度分析的水庫(kù)滲漏量不確定性評(píng)價(jià)

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-10-05 13:04
【摘要】:巖溶地區(qū)地表水庫(kù)與地下水有較為密切的水力聯(lián)系,合理預(yù)測(cè)巖溶水庫(kù)滲漏程度對(duì)工程設(shè)計(jì)與施工具有重要指導(dǎo)意義。以云南省某水庫(kù)為例,在分析庫(kù)區(qū)巖溶水文地質(zhì)條件的基礎(chǔ)上,利用USGS開發(fā)的Model Muse對(duì)水庫(kù)擴(kuò)建后受影響區(qū)域進(jìn)行地下水?dāng)?shù)值模擬,并結(jié)合UCODE對(duì)滲透系數(shù)及入滲強(qiáng)度等參數(shù)進(jìn)行敏感度分析。得出棲霞茅口組灰?guī)r(P1q+m)的滲透系數(shù)等四個(gè)敏感度較高的參數(shù)。這些參數(shù)在合理取值范圍內(nèi)存在多個(gè)值會(huì)對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)水庫(kù)滲漏量及滲漏等級(jí)產(chǎn)生較強(qiáng)影響。因此,在利用數(shù)值法預(yù)測(cè)水庫(kù)的滲漏等級(jí)時(shí),首先應(yīng)對(duì)研究區(qū)做全面細(xì)致勘察,提升參數(shù)的準(zhǔn)確性與可靠性。
[Abstract]:There is a close hydraulic relation between surface reservoir and groundwater in karst area. It is important to predict the seepage degree of karst reservoir reasonably for engineering design and construction. Taking a reservoir in Yunnan Province as an example, based on the analysis of the karst hydrogeological conditions in the reservoir area, the groundwater numerical simulation of the affected area after the expansion of the reservoir is carried out by using the Model Muse developed by USGS. The sensitivity of permeability coefficient and infiltration strength were analyzed with UCODE. The permeability coefficient of Qixia Maokou formation limestone (P1Q m) is obtained. The existence of several values in the reasonable range of these parameters will have a strong influence on the prediction of reservoir leakage and leakage grade. Therefore, in order to improve the accuracy and reliability of the parameters, the numerical method should be used to predict the leakage grade of the reservoir.
【作者單位】: 地質(zhì)災(zāi)害防治與地質(zhì)環(huán)境保護(hù)國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室(成都理工大學(xué));中國(guó)電建集團(tuán)成都勘測(cè)設(shè)計(jì)研究院有限公司;曲靖市水利電力勘測(cè)設(shè)計(jì)研究院;
【基金】:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目(41472275);國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金青年基金(41502237)資助
【分類號(hào)】:TV221.2;TV697

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

1 王芳;;涵洞流量方程不確定性及參數(shù)敏感度分析[J];水利天地;2014年06期

2 ;[J];;年期

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