【摘要】：SWAT （Soil and Water Assessment Tool）模型憑借其強大的水循環(huán)模擬能力在全世界范圍內(nèi)的應(yīng)用已越來越廣泛。它可以基于GIS平臺建立的地形空間數(shù)據(jù)對流域匯水區(qū)進行自動劃分，并形成水源地區(qū)域邊界；結(jié)合模型輸入的各種物理分布式文件，通過水文響應(yīng)單元模擬研究區(qū)水文過程。這種分布式水文模型不僅對研究區(qū)實測資料依賴小，而且操作性強，對匯水區(qū)域劃分的效率和質(zhì)量也能夠得以保證，尤其能夠完成環(huán)境變化情景下的水文過程分析。 長春作為典型的北方缺水性城市，新立城水庫這個離長春最近的水源地的供水安全保障工作就顯得尤為重要。本文建立了研究區(qū)月尺度的徑流模擬SWAT模型，并檢驗了徑流過程模擬的適用性和可靠性，并為新立城水庫水資源保護提供了科學(xué)依據(jù)。 本文以新立城水庫匯水區(qū)為研究區(qū)，研究模型的結(jié)構(gòu)組成和運行機理，分析了模型中與徑流模擬相關(guān)的水文循環(huán)陸地產(chǎn)流階段、匯流階段和河道匯流演算階段等3個階段。通過收集研究區(qū)DEM高程圖、土地利用/植物覆被圖、土壤類型圖以及逐日水文氣象資料等信息，應(yīng)用GIS技術(shù)進行空間數(shù)據(jù)處理并使用Matlab、pcpSWAT、dew02等軟件創(chuàng)建了針對于研究區(qū)的土壤和氣象數(shù)據(jù)庫。并在此基礎(chǔ)上運行SWAT模型，提取流域水系并確定了流域的匯流邊界。通過對面積閾值6600ha的限制，將研究區(qū)劃分為16個子流域。通過加載土地利用/植物覆被數(shù)據(jù)、土壤數(shù)據(jù)和氣象數(shù)據(jù)，并設(shè)定土地利用和土壤類型的閾值分別為5%和10%，將研究區(qū)劃分為93個HRUs。成功建立了新立城水庫匯水區(qū)的SWAT基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)模型。 利用已建SWAT模型對研究區(qū)徑流量進行以月為時間步長的模擬，并利用兩種不同方法分別對模型進行敏感性分析以進行參數(shù)率定。采用伊通水文站2004—2008年的實測徑流數(shù)據(jù)校正模型參數(shù)，2009-2010年實測徑流數(shù)據(jù)對模型進行驗證，然后分別對兩種方法運行結(jié)果進行模型適用性指標評價。結(jié)果表明，利用SWAT自動校正模塊在校核期和驗證期的月徑流量的判定系數(shù)R2分別為0.86和0.99；模型效率系數(shù)Ens分別為0.80和0.97；相對誤差Re分別為20.0％和19.3％；利用SUFI-2算法在校核期和驗證期的月徑流量的判定系數(shù)R2分別為0.92和0.98；模型效率系數(shù)Ens分別為0.91和0.96；相對誤差Re分別為6.0％和10.3％。兩種方法對模型適用性評價的各項指標均滿足研究要求，表明建立的SWAT模型可以應(yīng)用于該流域。對比兩種方法，無論從輸出結(jié)果質(zhì)量還是操作便捷程度及運行效率方面來看，，SUFI-2算法明顯好于模型自帶模塊。
[Abstract]:With its powerful water cycle simulation ability, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model has been used more and more widely all over the world. It can automatically divide watershed catchment area based on topographic spatial data established by GIS platform and form regional boundary of water source area. Combined with various physical distributed files input by model hydrological response unit is used to simulate hydrological process in the study area. The distributed hydrological model is not only less dependent on the measured data, but also more operable, and the efficiency and quality of the division of the catchment area can be guaranteed, especially the hydrological process analysis under the environmental change scenario. Changchun is a typical water shortage city in the north of China. It is very important to ensure the water supply safety of Xinlicheng Reservoir, which is the nearest water source to Changchun. In this paper, a monthly scale SWAT model of runoff simulation in the study area is established, and the applicability and reliability of the simulation of runoff process are tested, which provides a scientific basis for the protection of water resources of Xinliteng Reservoir. Taking the catchment area of Xinlicheng Reservoir as the study area, this paper studies the structure composition and operation mechanism of the model, and analyzes three stages of hydrological cycle land runoff generation, confluence and channel flow calculation related to runoff simulation. By collecting information such as DEM elevation map, land use / plant cover map, soil type map and daily hydrometeorological data, The spatial data processing using GIS technology and the use of Matlab,pcpSWAT,dew02 and other software to create a soil and meteorological database for the study area. On this basis, the SWAT model is used to extract the drainage system and determine the confluence boundary of the watershed. By limiting the area threshold 6600ha, the study area is divided into 16 subbasins. By loading land use / plant cover data, soil data and meteorological data, and setting a threshold of 5% and 10% for land use and soil type, the study area was divided into 93 HRUs.. The SWAT basic data model in the catchment area of Xinlicheng Reservoir has been established successfully. The SWAT model is used to simulate the runoff in the study area with a monthly time step, and two different methods are used to analyze the sensitivity of the model to determine the parameters. The model parameters of Yitong Hydrologic Station from 2004-2008 to 2009-2010 were used to verify the model, and then the applicability of the two methods was evaluated. The results show that the determination coefficient R2 of monthly runoff is 0.86 and 0.99, the model efficiency coefficient Ens is 0.80 and 0.97, the relative error Re is 20.0% and 19.3%, respectively. Using SUFI-2 algorithm, the determination coefficient R2 of monthly runoff is 0.92 and 0.98, the Ens of model efficiency is 0.91 and 0.96, and the relative error Re is 6.0% and 10.3%, respectively. The two methods can meet the requirements of the study on the applicability of the model, which indicates that the established SWAT model can be applied to the basin. Compared with the two methods, the SUFI-2 algorithm is obviously better than the model module in terms of output quality, operation convenience and operation efficiency.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV12

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