【摘要】：潰壩撤離技術(shù)理論對(duì)編制撤離預(yù)案和指導(dǎo)撤離行動(dòng)至關(guān)重要,目前研究主要集中在影響因素分析、潰壩洪水-人流-路徑疊加分析、人員死亡數(shù)量規(guī)律統(tǒng)計(jì)等方面,但潰壩撤離基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)不足,環(huán)境-地物-人群三元耦合過(guò)程中主要因素互饋機(jī)制不清,預(yù)警時(shí)間研究不深,相關(guān)理論發(fā)展受限。對(duì)近幾十年潰壩撤離技術(shù)理論研究和實(shí)踐進(jìn)行綜述,總結(jié)了國(guó)內(nèi)外潰壩撤離實(shí)踐和潰壩撤離影響因素、過(guò)程模擬、預(yù)案評(píng)價(jià)等主要成果,研究了預(yù)警時(shí)間和臨界預(yù)警時(shí)間概念,展望了今后主要發(fā)展方向。應(yīng)還原典型潰壩案例撤離過(guò)程,基于人類(lèi)行為和社會(huì)組織機(jī)制揭示潰壩撤離系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)特征,探索臨界預(yù)警時(shí)間與潰壩生命損失之間的定量關(guān)系,促進(jìn)潰壩撤離技術(shù)理論與應(yīng)用發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The theory of dam-break evacuation technology is very important for drawing up the evacuation plan and guiding the evacuation action. At present, the research mainly focuses on the analysis of influencing factors, the analysis of flood-flow-path superposition, and the statistics of the number of deaths. However, the basic data of dam-break evacuation is insufficient, and the main factors in the process of the ternary coupling of environment, ground objects and population are fed each other. This paper summarizes the theoretical research and practice of dam-break evacuation technology in recent decades, summarizes the practice of dam-break evacuation and the influencing factors of dam-break evacuation at home and abroad, process simulation, and evaluation of pre-plan, studies the concept of early warning time and critical early warning time, and looks forward to the future. The evacuation process of typical dam-break cases should be restored. The dynamic characteristics of dam-break evacuation system should be revealed based on human behavior and social organization mechanism. The quantitative relationship between critical warning time and life loss of dam-break should be explored to promote the development of theory and application of dam-break evacuation technology.
【作者單位】： 南京水利科學(xué)研究院大壩安全與管理研究所;水利部土石壩破壞機(jī)理與防控技術(shù)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;長(zhǎng)沙理工大學(xué)水利工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(41671504;51509156)~~
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TV122.4

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本文編號(hào)：2245819