灤河潘家口水庫控制流域干旱等級預測研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-10 20:36
【摘要】：隨著全球氣候的變化,以及社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展帶來的用水需求的增加,灤河流域水資源短缺和干旱問題日益突出,一直制約著其社會經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。為此,本文從氣象干旱和水文干旱研究的角度出發(fā),對灤河潘家口水庫控制流域的干旱等級預測方法進行了研究,構建了三種預測模型,以期找到更好的預測方法、預測模型提高流域干旱等級預測的精度,為流域干旱應對和水資源科學管理提供參考,主要研究內容和成果如下:(1)干旱等級評價模式的建立。基于灤河潘家口水庫控制流域的水文資料計算獲得標準化降水指數(shù)(SPI)、標準化徑流指數(shù)(SRI)時間序列,再參照干旱等級的劃分標準,分別獲得對應的SPI、SRI等級序列,即氣象、水文干旱等級序列,并采用歷史干旱年份的旱情進行了驗證,評價結果與實際旱情基本一致。(2)預測方法的分析與預測模型的構建。以SPI和SRI時間序列為研究對象,分別建立了三維對數(shù)線性模型和加權馬爾可夫鏈模型,并首次運用混沌時間序列Volterra自適應濾波器模型,對未來SPI和SRI等級進行預測模擬,實現(xiàn)了短期和中長期干旱等級的預測。(3)預測模型的應用與預測精度分析。對不同預測模型的預測精度進行分析,結果表明,在灤河潘家口水庫控制流域干旱等級預測中,三種預測模型各有其優(yōu)勢與不足,三維對數(shù)線性預測法適用于預見期為1個月的干旱等級預測,模型的預測精度隨預測步長的增加而下降,不能用于較長時間的預測;加權馬爾可夫鏈預測模型對干旱的預測準確率由高到低依次為無旱、中旱、重旱/特旱、輕旱,且預測精度與干旱等級所處的穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)有顯著關系,當干旱等級的發(fā)展過程相對平穩(wěn)時其預測能力較強,而當干旱等級劇變時其預測能力較弱;將相空間重構技術、Volterra級數(shù)展開技術以及自適應濾波器優(yōu)化技術相結合,提出了一種新的干旱等級預測方法,模型適用于灤河潘家口水庫流域中長期干旱等級預測,且具有較高的預測精度,同時,干旱等級預測的預見期增長至12個月,可為水資源系統(tǒng)的中長期決策或規(guī)劃提供更多的信息支持。
[Abstract]:With the change of global climate and the increase of water demand brought by the development of social economy, the problems of water resources shortage and drought in Luanhe River Basin are becoming increasingly prominent, which has been restricting the development of its social economy. Therefore, from the point of view of the study of meteorological drought and hydrological drought, this paper studies the prediction methods of drought grade in Panjiakou reservoir control basin of Luanhe River, and constructs three forecasting models in order to find a better prediction method. The prediction model improves the precision of drought grade prediction and provides a reference for drought response and scientific management of water resources. The main research contents and results are as follows: (1) Establishment of drought grade evaluation model. Based on the hydrological data of Panjiakou Reservoir control basin of Luanhe River, the standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI) time series is obtained, and the corresponding SPI,SRI grade series, that is, meteorology, is obtained according to the criteria of drought classification. The hydrological drought grade series is verified by the drought condition in the historical drought year, and the evaluation results are basically consistent with the actual drought situation. (2) the analysis of forecasting method and the construction of forecasting model. Taking SPI and SRI time series as research objects, the three dimensional logarithmic linear model and weighted Markov chain model are established, respectively. The chaotic time series Volterra adaptive filter model is used for the first time to predict and simulate the future SPI and SRI grades. The prediction of drought grade in short and long term is realized. (3) the application of forecasting model and the analysis of prediction precision. The prediction accuracy of different forecasting models is analyzed. The results show that the three prediction models have their own advantages and disadvantages in the prediction of the drought grade of the Panjiakou Reservoir in Luanhe River, which is controlled by the Panjiakou Reservoir. The three dimensional logarithmic linear prediction method is suitable for drought grade prediction with a predicted period of one month. The prediction accuracy of the model decreases with the increase of the prediction step and cannot be used for longer prediction. The prediction accuracy of the weighted Markov chain model for drought prediction is from high to low in the order of no drought, moderate drought, severe drought / special drought, and light drought, and the prediction accuracy is significantly related to the stable state of drought grade. When the development process of drought grade is relatively stable, its prediction ability is stronger, but when the drought grade changes rapidly, its prediction ability is weak, which combines the phase space reconstruction technology with Volterra series expansion technology and adaptive filter optimization technology. A new method of drought grade prediction is put forward. The model is suitable for long term drought grade prediction in Panjiakou reservoir basin of Luanhe River, and has high prediction accuracy. At the same time, the forecast period of drought grade prediction increases to 12 months. It can provide more information support for medium-and long-term decision-making or planning of water resources system.
【學位授予單位】：天津大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV697;P426.616
本文編號：2235547
[Abstract]:With the change of global climate and the increase of water demand brought by the development of social economy, the problems of water resources shortage and drought in Luanhe River Basin are becoming increasingly prominent, which has been restricting the development of its social economy. Therefore, from the point of view of the study of meteorological drought and hydrological drought, this paper studies the prediction methods of drought grade in Panjiakou reservoir control basin of Luanhe River, and constructs three forecasting models in order to find a better prediction method. The prediction model improves the precision of drought grade prediction and provides a reference for drought response and scientific management of water resources. The main research contents and results are as follows: (1) Establishment of drought grade evaluation model. Based on the hydrological data of Panjiakou Reservoir control basin of Luanhe River, the standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI) time series is obtained, and the corresponding SPI,SRI grade series, that is, meteorology, is obtained according to the criteria of drought classification. The hydrological drought grade series is verified by the drought condition in the historical drought year, and the evaluation results are basically consistent with the actual drought situation. (2) the analysis of forecasting method and the construction of forecasting model. Taking SPI and SRI time series as research objects, the three dimensional logarithmic linear model and weighted Markov chain model are established, respectively. The chaotic time series Volterra adaptive filter model is used for the first time to predict and simulate the future SPI and SRI grades. The prediction of drought grade in short and long term is realized. (3) the application of forecasting model and the analysis of prediction precision. The prediction accuracy of different forecasting models is analyzed. The results show that the three prediction models have their own advantages and disadvantages in the prediction of the drought grade of the Panjiakou Reservoir in Luanhe River, which is controlled by the Panjiakou Reservoir. The three dimensional logarithmic linear prediction method is suitable for drought grade prediction with a predicted period of one month. The prediction accuracy of the model decreases with the increase of the prediction step and cannot be used for longer prediction. The prediction accuracy of the weighted Markov chain model for drought prediction is from high to low in the order of no drought, moderate drought, severe drought / special drought, and light drought, and the prediction accuracy is significantly related to the stable state of drought grade. When the development process of drought grade is relatively stable, its prediction ability is stronger, but when the drought grade changes rapidly, its prediction ability is weak, which combines the phase space reconstruction technology with Volterra series expansion technology and adaptive filter optimization technology. A new method of drought grade prediction is put forward. The model is suitable for long term drought grade prediction in Panjiakou reservoir basin of Luanhe River, and has high prediction accuracy. At the same time, the forecast period of drought grade prediction increases to 12 months. It can provide more information support for medium-and long-term decision-making or planning of water resources system.
【學位授予單位】：天津大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV697;P426.616
【相似文獻】
相關期刊論文 前5條
1 高峰;暴柱;石維;張輝;周緒申;;潘家口水庫浮游植物現(xiàn)狀分析[J];海河水利;2012年01期
2 李子田;馬建民;;美麗的蟠龍湖[J];地球;2003年03期
3 李文君;郭勇;富可榮;;潘家口水庫浮游植物群落結構時空變化及多樣性分析[J];環(huán)境科學與技術;2012年09期
4 沈曉霞;修壩保水新技術[J];天津科技;2000年04期
5 ;[J];;年期
相關會議論文 前2條
1 牛世豫;;潘家口水庫主要工程地質問題的再認識[A];第六屆全國工程地質大會論文集[C];2000年
2 暴柱;高峰;;潘家口水源地底質監(jiān)測及評價[A];2012中國環(huán)境科學學會學術年會論文集（第一卷）[C];2012年
相關重要報紙文章 前9條
1 杜繼昌 張澤偉;潘家口水庫緊急向津供水[N];新華每日電訊;2000年
2 記者 張妍 王宇;氣象決策依據(jù)支持潘家口水庫調度[N];中國氣象報;2011年
3 記者麗雪;王久宗到潘家口水庫檢查防汛工作[N];唐山勞動日報;2011年
4 謝吉恒;潘家口風光攬勝[N];中國冶金報;2000年
5 張鳳嵋;潘家口水庫動用死庫容向天津供水[N];中國水利報;2000年
6 裴東�！№n明達;寬城潘家口水庫航道正式投入使用[N];承德日報;2009年
7 宋寧華;水下長城：不知道明天[N];中國旅游報;2003年
8 鄭北鷹;我國每天4000多萬人奮力抗旱[N];中國食品質量報;2000年
9 本報記者 史彥;水危機兵臨城下[N];中華工商時報;2000年
相關碩士學位論文 前5條
1 胡榮;灤河潘家口水庫控制流域干旱等級預測研究[D];天津大學;2014年
2 依熱下提·卡米力;潘家口水庫流域土地利用變化的水文響應模擬[D];天津大學;2014年
3 趙莉;潘家口水庫水資源狀況復核分析[D];天津大學;2012年
4 于寶軍;潘家口水庫水情自動測報系統(tǒng)[D];河海大學;2006年
5 王現(xiàn)領;潘家口水庫降雨徑流變化趨勢問題的研究[D];天津大學;2007年
，本文編號：2235547
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/kejilunwen/shuiwenshuili/2235547.html
最近更新
教材專著
