【摘要】：洪水預(yù)報(bào)精度和預(yù)見期作為洪水預(yù)報(bào)的兩個(gè)關(guān)鍵要素,與防洪減災(zāi)效益密切相關(guān),洪水預(yù)報(bào)越精確,預(yù)見期越長,防洪調(diào)度的經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值就越大。為了延長洪水預(yù)見期,保證洪水預(yù)報(bào)精度,其中一個(gè)比較有效的方法就是在洪水預(yù)報(bào)中耦合高分辨率天氣預(yù)報(bào)模式。WRF模式憑其便捷和完善的模擬與預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng),在中尺度模擬特別是降水模擬中具有普適性和優(yōu)越性,但將其應(yīng)用于耦合洪水預(yù)報(bào)的研究還較少。西苕溪流域是我國東部典型的中尺度流域,位于長江中下游地區(qū),其氣候特點(diǎn)和地形地貌特征在中國東南部半濕潤地區(qū)具有典型性和代表性。因此,本文以西苕溪流域?yàn)檠芯繀^(qū),采用港口站以上流域的實(shí)測(cè)降水和港口斷面的實(shí)測(cè)洪水資料,開展了基于WRF模式和HEC-HMS水文模型的洪水預(yù)報(bào)研究,實(shí)現(xiàn)了氣象模式與水文模型的單向耦合,并由此建立了一套適用于中尺度流域的實(shí)時(shí)洪水預(yù)報(bào)方案。研究包括以下幾個(gè)部分： 1.根據(jù)西苕溪流域的氣候水文特征,從2009～2011年間4場(chǎng)洪水過程資料中篩選出兩類典型的暴雨洪水過程,分別為2009年8月的臺(tái)風(fēng)型暴雨洪水和2011年6月的梅雨型暴雨洪水,利用NCEP再分析資料,分析其發(fā)生天氣背景和雨洪特性。在此基礎(chǔ)上,采用WRF模式分別對(duì)這兩個(gè)暴雨個(gè)例進(jìn)行了連續(xù)10天的滾動(dòng)模擬,并對(duì)模擬結(jié)果進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)和分析。結(jié)果表明：WRF模式對(duì)主要雨日降水落區(qū)、走向、雨強(qiáng)的模擬結(jié)果與實(shí)測(cè)吻合度較高。對(duì)子流域單元面雨量進(jìn)行了時(shí)空分級(jí)檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)WRF模式對(duì)強(qiáng)降雨的預(yù)報(bào)能力較強(qiáng),當(dāng)出現(xiàn)lmm以下小雨時(shí)(日面雨量lmm),模式容易發(fā)生漏報(bào)。時(shí)間上,隨著預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效的延長,單元預(yù)報(bào)合格率雖有所下降,但仍維持在50%左右；空間上,子流域面積越大,地形起伏越大,則面雨量預(yù)報(bào)誤差越大。總體來看,WRF模式對(duì)研究區(qū)兩類暴雨過程的模擬結(jié)果較為合理和可靠,可作為水文模型的輸入開展耦合預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)。 2.基于地理信息處理和模型參數(shù)估算結(jié)果,采用兩種產(chǎn)匯流方案組合,對(duì)西苕溪流域進(jìn)行了降雨—徑流過程模擬,并以《水文情報(bào)預(yù)報(bào)規(guī)范》(GB-22482-2008-T)中的作業(yè)預(yù)報(bào)許可誤差作為合格檢驗(yàn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)分析了模擬效果。結(jié)果表明,模擬日徑流和次洪過程與實(shí)測(cè)一致較好,日徑流模擬結(jié)果中,確定性系數(shù)、洪峰流量相對(duì)誤差、峰現(xiàn)時(shí)差等指標(biāo)合格率為100%；次洪模擬結(jié)果中,僅有第20110611次洪水(組合二)的確定性系數(shù)為不合格,說明HEC-HMS模型在西苕溪流域具有較好的適用性。模型對(duì)于單峰型洪水的模擬效果優(yōu)于雙峰型洪水,其參數(shù)組合更適用于短歷時(shí)的降雨事件,組合一較組合二有更好的表現(xiàn),說明在資料相對(duì)缺乏的情況下,相對(duì)簡(jiǎn)單的參數(shù)方案更具有實(shí)用價(jià)值。 3.采用單向耦合法,將WRF模式(5km網(wǎng)格)48h預(yù)見期的滾動(dòng)預(yù)報(bào)降雨場(chǎng),經(jīng)尺度轉(zhuǎn)換,輸入IEC-HMS模型進(jìn)行流量滾動(dòng)預(yù)報(bào),成功地實(shí)時(shí)預(yù)報(bào)出了該流域的兩類洪水過程。并且隨著時(shí)間的推移,滾動(dòng)預(yù)報(bào)精度逐漸提高,洪峰和洪量得到不斷調(diào)整,當(dāng)降雨過程趨于結(jié)束時(shí),滾動(dòng)預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果也趨于穩(wěn)定。耦合預(yù)報(bào)相對(duì)于傳統(tǒng)預(yù)報(bào)方法顯示出一定的優(yōu)勢(shì),使洪水預(yù)見期有效延長48h,且具有一定的預(yù)報(bào)精度。 上述三部分研究表明：WRF模式降雨預(yù)報(bào)誤差是制約流量預(yù)報(bào)的關(guān)鍵因素,洪峰流量和峰現(xiàn)時(shí)間的誤差取決于WRF模式對(duì)降雨落區(qū)、強(qiáng)降水時(shí)段預(yù)報(bào)的偏差。
[Abstract]:As the two key factors of flood forecasting, flood forecasting precision and forecasting period are closely related to the benefit of flood control and disaster reduction. The more accurate flood forecasting, the longer forecasting period, the greater the economic value of flood control operation. WRF model is a typical mesoscale basin in the eastern part of China, located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, with its convenient and perfect simulation and forecasting system. It has universality and superiority in mesoscale simulation, especially in precipitation simulation, but its application in coupled flood forecasting is less. Climatic and topographic features are typical and representative in the semi-humid area of Southeast China. Therefore, this paper takes Xiweixi River Basin as the research area, uses the measured precipitation above the harbor station and the measured flood data of the harbor section to carry out the flood forecasting research based on WRF model and HEC-HMS hydrological model, and realizes meteorology. A set of real-time flood forecasting schemes suitable for mesoscale basins is established based on the unidirectional coupling of the model and hydrological model.
1. According to the climatological and hydrological characteristics of Xiweixi River basin, two typical storm flood processes were selected from the data of four flood processes during 2009-2011, namely, typhoon-type storm flood in August 2009 and meiyu-type storm flood in June 2011. The weather background and rainstorm flood characteristics were analyzed by NCEP reanalysis data. WRF model was used to simulate the two rainstorms for 10 days, and the simulation results were checked and analyzed. The results show that the WRF model has a high coincidence with the measured rainfall intensity in the main rainy sunset area. The prediction ability of the model for heavy rainfall is strong, and it is easy to miss the forecast when there is light rain below LMM (daily surface rainfall lmm). Generally speaking, the simulation results of WRF model for two types of rainstorm processes in the study area are reasonable and reliable, and it can be used as the input of hydrological model to carry out coupled forecasting experiments.
2. Based on the results of geographic information processing and model parameter estimation, the rainfall-runoff process in Xituoxi watershed was simulated by using two runoff generation and confluence schemes, and the simulation results were analyzed by using the operational forecast allowable error in (GB-22482-2008-T) as the eligible test standard. In the simulation results of daily runoff, the qualified rate of deterministic coefficient, relative error of peak discharge and current time difference is 100%; in the simulation results of secondary flood, only the deterministic coefficient of 20110611 flood (combination 2) is unqualified, which indicates that the HEC-HMS model has a good applicability in Xituoxi River basin. The simulation effect of single-peak flood is better than that of double-peak flood, and the parameter combination is more suitable for short-duration rainfall events. The performance of combination one is better than combination two, which shows that the relatively simple parameter scheme has more practical value in the case of relative lack of data.
3. Using one-way coupling method, the rolling forecast rainfall field of WRF model (5km grid) in 48h forecast period is transformed into IEC-HMS model by scale transformation, and the two types of flood processes are successfully predicted in real-time. With the passage of time, the rolling forecast precision is gradually improved, and the flood peak and flood volume are constantly adjusted. The results of rolling forecast also tend to be stable when the rainfall process tends to end. Compared with the traditional forecast method, the coupled forecast method shows certain advantages, which can effectively prolong the flood forecasting period by 48 hours and has a certain forecasting accuracy.
The above three parts show that the error of WRF rainfall forecast is the key factor to restrict the discharge forecast, and the error of peak discharge and peak present time depends on the deviation of WRF model to rainfall area and heavy rainfall period forecast.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京信息工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：P338

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