【摘要】：可能最大降水(Probable Maximum Precipitation,PMP)與可能最大洪水(Probable Maximum Flood, PMF)是推求重要水利水電工程和核電工程設(shè)計(jì)洪水的主要方法,是重要水庫(kù)大壩和溢洪道的普遍設(shè)計(jì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),目前在世界上得到了廣泛的應(yīng)用。國(guó)內(nèi)外水文氣象專家在可能最大降水(PMP)和可能最大洪水(PMF)的估算上做了大量的工作,取得了豐碩的研究成果。 可能最大洪水的推求是基于可能最大降水的結(jié)果,因此本論文首先對(duì)可能最大降水估算方法的國(guó)內(nèi)外研究進(jìn)展和現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了闡述,然后介紹了目前世界上通用的六種估算方法的原理和適用性,并比較了每種方法的優(yōu)劣。由于各種PMP估算方法均基于可降水量的結(jié)果進(jìn)行,因此本論文在對(duì)三種可降水量估算方法進(jìn)行比較分析后,重點(diǎn)研究假絕熱法估算可降水量在可能最大降水估算中的改進(jìn),并利用全國(guó)范圍的可降水量結(jié)果對(duì)結(jié)論進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,最后以香港的PMP估算為例探討改進(jìn)措施的應(yīng)用。 采用探空法、假絕熱法、經(jīng)驗(yàn)公式法對(duì)東南沿海五省區(qū)的可降水量進(jìn)行計(jì)算,比較發(fā)現(xiàn),三種求得的大氣可降水量具有較好的相關(guān)性,都可用于實(shí)際工作。但經(jīng)驗(yàn)公式法的結(jié)果偏小；而利用假絕熱法推求的大氣可降水量偏大,且偏差隨著緯度變化而變化,緯度越低,假絕熱法推求的可降水量相對(duì)誤差越大,因此若采用暴雨移置法估算PMP時(shí)需要進(jìn)行緯度校正。 通過(guò)利用香港地區(qū)每五分鐘的降水資料分析香港地區(qū)的降水氣候條件,擬定出估算香港地區(qū)PMP的方法和方案。采用當(dāng)?shù)乇┯攴糯蠓ê透倪M(jìn)后的暴雨移置法對(duì)香港地區(qū)4小時(shí)和24小時(shí)PMP進(jìn)行估算。最后將估算得到的可能最大降水成果,從方法上和結(jié)果上進(jìn)行合理性分析,與中國(guó)東南沿海點(diǎn)暴雨記錄和世界歷史點(diǎn)暴雨記錄比較,與頻率分析結(jié)果進(jìn)行比較,綜合分析認(rèn)為成果是合理的,并推薦比較可靠的PMP結(jié)果供工程設(shè)計(jì)使用。
[Abstract]:The possible maximum precipitation (Probable Maximum Flood, PMF) and the possible maximum flood (Probable Maximum Flood, PMF) are the main methods to calculate the design flood of important water conservancy and hydropower projects and nuclear power projects, and are the universal design standards for important reservoir dams and spillways. At present, it has been widely used in the world. Domestic and foreign hydrometeorological experts have done a lot of work on the estimation of possible maximum precipitation (PMP) and possible maximum flood (PMF), and have obtained fruitful research results. The calculation of the possible maximum flood is based on the results of the possible maximum precipitation. Therefore, this paper first describes the research progress and current situation of the estimation methods of the possible maximum precipitation at home and abroad. Then it introduces the principle and applicability of six kinds of estimation methods used in the world, and compares the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Because all kinds of PMP estimation methods are based on the results of precipitable water, this paper focuses on the improvement of pseudo-adiabatic estimation of precipitable water in the estimation of possible maximum precipitation after comparative analysis of the three methods. The conclusions are verified by the results of the precipitation in the whole country. Finally, the application of the improvement measures is discussed with the PMP estimation of Hong Kong as an example. By using sounding method, pseudo-adiabatic method and empirical formula method, the precipitable water amount of five provinces along the southeast coast is calculated. It is found that the three kinds of atmospheric precipitable water have good correlation and can be used in practical work. But the result of empirical formula method is small, and the precipitation calculated by pseudo-adiabatic method is larger, and the deviation varies with the change of latitude, the lower the latitude, the greater the relative error of precipitation calculated by pseudo-adiabatic method. Therefore, latitude correction should be carried out when PMP is estimated by rainstorm shifting method. By using the precipitation data of Hong Kong every five minutes to analyze the precipitation climatic conditions in Hong Kong, the method and scheme of estimating PMP in Hong Kong are proposed. The local rainstorm amplification method and the improved rainstorm relocation method were used to estimate the PMP in Hong Kong for 4 hours and 24 hours. Finally, the estimated maximum precipitation results are analyzed reasonably in terms of methods and results, compared with the rainstorm records at the southeast coastal points of China and the world historical rainstorm records, and compared with the frequency analysis results. It is concluded that the results are reasonable and reliable PMP results are recommended for engineering design.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京信息工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：P333.2

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 韋瑩瑩;濮梅娟;平海波;周璇;;江蘇省夏季降水異常和成因分析[J];安徽農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué);2011年03期

2 楊景梅,邱金桓;用地面濕度參量計(jì)算我國(guó)整層大氣可降水量及有效水汽含量方法的研究[J];大氣科學(xué);2002年01期

3 楊景梅，，邱金桓;我國(guó)可降水量同地面水汽壓關(guān)系的經(jīng)驗(yàn)表達(dá)式[J];大氣科學(xué);1996年05期

4 林炳章;;分時(shí)段地形增強(qiáng)因子法在山區(qū)PMP估算中的應(yīng)用[J];河海大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);1988年03期

5 熊學(xué)農(nóng);高治定;;黃河三花區(qū)間可能最大暴雨估算[J];河海大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);1993年03期

6 華家鵬;黃勇;楊惠;劉麗詩(shī);;利用統(tǒng)計(jì)估算放大法推求可能最大暴雨[J];河海大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2007年03期

7 魏慧娟;用典型暴雨放大法估算可能最大降水量[J];河南氣象;2000年01期

8 劉鵬,郭汝艷;PMP——可能最大降水概念簡(jiǎn)介[J];給水排水;2004年08期

9 李成才,毛節(jié)泰,李建國(guó),夏青;全球定位系統(tǒng)遙感水汽總量[J];科學(xué)通報(bào);1999年03期

10 盧士慶;閆賓;劉曉東;;幾種求算大氣可降水量方法比較[J];內(nèi)蒙古氣象;2009年01期

本文編號(hào)：2186384