【摘要】：灤河是保障天津市供水的重要水源,引欒工程是天津市供水的重要支撐。.引灤工程建成以來,已向天津市供水170億m~3,為天津市的社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展作出了很大貢獻(xiàn)。但是近十年來潘家口水庫流域的水資源狀況發(fā)生了明顯的變化,特別是近幾年潘家口水庫入庫徑流量大幅度衰減,多次造成天津市供水危機(jī),迫使天津市四次實(shí)施引黃濟(jì)津的應(yīng)急調(diào)水。因此研究土地利用/覆被變化對潘家口水庫入庫徑流的影響機(jī)制是非常具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義的。SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型是20世紀(jì)90年代初美國農(nóng)業(yè)部(USDA)開發(fā)的面向大中流域、長時間尺度的分布式水文模型,主要用于模擬土地管理措施對水流、泥沙和農(nóng)業(yè)化學(xué)物質(zhì)的長期影響,國內(nèi)外的應(yīng)用經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明,該模型具有廣泛的適用性。本文以潘家口水庫流域?yàn)檠芯繀^(qū)域,應(yīng)用SWAT模型對該區(qū)域的徑流進(jìn)行模擬計(jì)算,并根據(jù)實(shí)測資料對模型的參數(shù)進(jìn)行了率定和驗(yàn)證,在確定模型適用性的基礎(chǔ)上分析了潘家口水庫入庫徑流的演變特征。模擬結(jié)果表明:與1980年土地利用情景相比,2006年土地利用情景下的多年平均徑流減少11%;對于不同典型水文年份而言,土地利用變化對枯水年的影響最大,對豐水年和平水年的影響相當(dāng);土地利用變化對年徑流的影響主要表現(xiàn)為汛期徑流減少;潘家口水庫流域水資源涵養(yǎng)能力有所增加。對2006年土地利用情景下模擬的年徑流做頻率分析,得到相應(yīng)于10%,50%,90%頻率的設(shè)計(jì)年徑流量分別為42.7億m~3,20.3億m~3和7.6億m~3,并通過縮放響應(yīng)典型年的徑流年內(nèi)分配過程,對設(shè)計(jì)年徑流進(jìn)行年內(nèi)分配。模擬研究土地利用對潘家口水庫流域徑流的影響,對合理規(guī)劃土地利用和流域水資源綜合管理具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:Luanhe River is an important source of water supply in Tianjin. Since the construction of Luanhe River diversion Project, 17 billion mm3 water supply has been supplied to Tianjin, which has made great contribution to the social and economic development of Tianjin. However, in the last ten years, the situation of water resources in the Panjiakou reservoir basin has changed obviously, especially in recent years, the runoff of the Panjiakou reservoir has been greatly reduced, resulting in the water supply crisis in Tianjin City for many times. Forced Tianjin four times to implement the emergency water diversion of the Yellow River and Tianjin. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the influence mechanism of land use / cover change on the inflow and runoff of Panjiakou Reservoir. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model is developed by (USDA) of USDA in the early 1990s. The long time scale distributed hydrological model is mainly used to simulate the long-term effects of land management measures on water flow, sediment and agricultural chemicals. The application experience at home and abroad shows that the model is widely applicable. Taking the Panjiakou reservoir basin as the study area, the SWAT model is used to simulate and calculate the runoff in this area, and the parameters of the model are determined and verified according to the measured data. On the basis of determining the applicability of the model, the evolution characteristics of inflow runoff of Panjiakou Reservoir are analyzed. The simulation results show that compared with the land use scenarios in 1980, the annual average runoff under the land use scenarios in 2006 is reduced by 11 percent, and for different typical hydrological years, the land use change has the greatest impact on the dry year. The effects of land use change on the annual runoff are similar to those on the high water year and the average water year. The main effects of land use change on the annual runoff are the decrease of runoff in flood season and the increase of water resources conservation capacity in Panjiakou reservoir basin. Based on the frequency analysis of the annual runoff simulated under the land use scenarios in 2006, the design annual runoff corresponding to the frequency of 1050% and 90% is 4.27 billion mm3, 2.03 billion mm3 and 760 million mm3, respectively, and the in-year runoff distribution process in response to the typical year is obtained by scaling. Year-in-year allocation of design year runoff. It is of practical significance to simulate the impact of land use on runoff in Panjiakou reservoir basin and to rationally plan land use and integrated management of water resources in the basin.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV697.21

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