【摘要】：為研究城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌背景下重慶市水生態(tài)足跡情況,利用水生態(tài)足跡模型,分析了重慶市2000—2014年水生態(tài)足跡和水資源承載力,運(yùn)用GRNN模型預(yù)測(cè)了2015—2018年城鄉(xiāng)人均水生態(tài)足跡與人均水資源承載力。結(jié)果表明,12000—2014年重慶市水生態(tài)足跡總體呈上升趨勢(shì),由0.093 2億hm~2增長(zhǎng)到0.143 5億hm~2。水資源承載力受降水量的影響,整體波動(dòng)較大。水生態(tài)壓力指數(shù)介于0.115 6~0.235 9之間,遠(yuǎn)小于1,水資源開(kāi)發(fā)利用空間大。2城鄉(xiāng)水生態(tài)足跡與水資源承載力有差異:農(nóng)村總水生態(tài)足跡大于城市,但人均水生態(tài)足跡小于城市。農(nóng)村總水資源承載力與人均水資源承載力均大于城市。城市水生態(tài)壓力指數(shù)大于農(nóng)村,但二者都小于1,說(shuō)明城市水資源利用程度高,但城市發(fā)展對(duì)水資源的壓力也大。3預(yù)計(jì)2015—2018年重慶市城鄉(xiāng)人均水生態(tài)足跡總體上都呈上升態(tài)勢(shì),城市人均水生態(tài)足跡將由0.386 64 hm~2增長(zhǎng)到0.409 62 hm~2,增長(zhǎng)了6%。農(nóng)村人均水生態(tài)足跡將由0.276 50 hm~2增長(zhǎng)到0.336 57 hm~2,增長(zhǎng)了22%。城鄉(xiāng)人均水資源承載力在一定范圍內(nèi)相對(duì)穩(wěn)定,水生態(tài)足跡增長(zhǎng)將威脅水資源可持續(xù)利用。在充分考慮重慶市水資源的時(shí)空分布基礎(chǔ)上,優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、轉(zhuǎn)變發(fā)展方式、統(tǒng)籌城鄉(xiāng)布局,可促進(jìn)重慶社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:In order to study the water ecological footprint of Chongqing under the background of urban and rural planning, the water ecological footprint and water resources carrying capacity of Chongqing from 2000 to 2014 were analyzed by using the water ecological footprint model. GRNN model is used to predict the per capita ecological footprint and carrying capacity of water resources in urban and rural areas from 2015 to 2018. The results showed that the water ecological footprint of Chongqing increased from 9.32 million hm~2 to 14.35 million hm~2 from 2000 to 2014. The carrying capacity of water resources is affected by precipitation and fluctuates greatly as a whole. The index of water ecological pressure is between 0.115 and 0.2359, which is far less than 1. There is a difference between the water ecological footprint and the carrying capacity of water resources in urban and rural areas in the large space of water resources exploitation and utilization: the ecological footprint of total water in rural areas is larger than that in cities, but the ecological footprint per capita is smaller than that in cities. The carrying capacity of rural total water resources and per capita water resources are both larger than those of cities. The urban water ecological pressure index is larger than that of rural areas, but both of them are less than 1, which indicates that the utilization of urban water resources is high, but the pressure of urban development on water resources is also large. 3. It is estimated that the per capita water ecological footprint of urban and rural areas in Chongqing will increase in the whole period from 2015 to 2018. Urban per capita water ecological footprint will increase from 0.386 64 hm~2 to 0.409 62 hmm2, an increase of 6%. The per capita water ecological footprint in rural areas will increase from 0.276 50 hm~2 to 0.336 57 hmm2, an increase of 22%. The per capita carrying capacity of water resources in urban and rural areas is relatively stable within a certain range, and the increase of water ecological footprint will threaten the sustainable utilization of water resources. On the basis of fully considering the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources in Chongqing, the sustainable development of Chongqing's social economy can be promoted by optimizing the industrial structure, changing the mode of development and coordinating the distribution of urban and rural areas.
【作者單位】： 重慶師范大學(xué)地理與旅游學(xué)院;重慶市三峽庫(kù)區(qū)地表過(guò)程與環(huán)境遙感重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;貴州科學(xué)院山地資源研究所;貴州師范大學(xué)喀斯特研究院;河南大學(xué)環(huán)境與規(guī)劃學(xué)院;
【基金】：貴州省重大科技專項(xiàng)(黔科合重大專項(xiàng)字⺌2012⺗6015號(hào)) 國(guó)家科技支撐計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2014BAB03B01) 貴州省重大應(yīng)用基礎(chǔ)專項(xiàng)(黔科合J重大字[2015]2001)
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4

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