土石壩漫壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析計(jì)算方法研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-03 16:28
【摘要】：水庫(kù)大壩是人類社會(huì)發(fā)展中的巨大財(cái)富,在當(dāng)今社會(huì)起著至關(guān)重要的作用。一方面,水庫(kù)通過(guò)汛期蓄水減輕了非汛期水資源緊缺的現(xiàn)狀,并通過(guò)水庫(kù)調(diào)節(jié)降低了下游遭受洪災(zāi)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；另一方面,其存在又不可避免地帶來(lái)了大壩失事的新風(fēng)險(xiǎn),尤以土石壩最為突出。水庫(kù)發(fā)生漫壩失事的主要誘因是洪水,因此對(duì)于洪水特性的研究顯得極為重要。本文在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析概要介紹的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)土石壩漫壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了分析,提出了一種基于改進(jìn)蒙特卡羅法的計(jì)算漫壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值的新方法,同時(shí)對(duì)與漫壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)算密切相關(guān)的水文頻率分析方法進(jìn)行了研究,針對(duì)已有方法存在的不足,提出了一種新的水文頻率分析計(jì)算方法。最終,以遼寧省大伙房水庫(kù)為例對(duì)上述計(jì)算方法進(jìn)行了實(shí)際應(yīng)用。本論文主要研究?jī)?nèi)容如下：(1)基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析相關(guān)理論及計(jì)算方法,提出了采用改進(jìn)的蒙特卡羅方法計(jì)算漫壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值。該方法通過(guò)采用重要抽樣與拉丁超立方抽樣相結(jié)合的抽樣法替代了直接蒙特卡羅法中的簡(jiǎn)單抽樣。通過(guò)對(duì)其與直接蒙特卡羅法的抽樣效果及收斂效果進(jìn)行分析,可知改進(jìn)的蒙特卡羅法在計(jì)算漫壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)過(guò)程中有效提高了抽樣效率,減少了計(jì)算工作量。(2)由于隨機(jī)變量頻率分析誤差的存在會(huì)對(duì)隨機(jī)變量設(shè)計(jì)值計(jì)算結(jié)果產(chǎn)生影響,本文提出在漫壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析時(shí)應(yīng)考慮頻率分析的不確定性,并給出了考慮該不確定性時(shí)漫壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的計(jì)算方法。(3)在水文頻率分析計(jì)算中,為避免參數(shù)法的線型限制問(wèn)題及非參數(shù)法復(fù)雜的核函數(shù)選取問(wèn)題,提出了一種新的水文頻率分析方法——基于概率密度演化法的水文頻率分析方法。在對(duì)概率密度演化法原理介紹的基礎(chǔ)上,建立了水文頻率分析模型,并給出了模型求解方法及水文頻率設(shè)計(jì)值推求的具體流程。(4)采用蒙特卡羅模擬,對(duì)所建立的基于概率密度演化法的水文頻率分析模型魯棒性進(jìn)行了研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)與常用的參數(shù)法相比該方法具有較好的魯棒性。為進(jìn)一步研究所提出方法的特性,以臺(tái)灣石門水庫(kù)及嫩江大賚水文站作為實(shí)例進(jìn)行了數(shù)值分析。結(jié)果表明,同常用的參數(shù)法相比,基于概率密度演化法的洪峰流量頻率曲線計(jì)算結(jié)果可以更好地與樣本經(jīng)驗(yàn)頻率點(diǎn)據(jù)擬合,是一種可行且有效的水文頻率曲線計(jì)算方法。此外,概率密度演化法還可以作為頻率分析參數(shù)法估計(jì)結(jié)果的對(duì)比,用來(lái)分析檢驗(yàn)參數(shù)法所采用的假設(shè)總體分布是否合理。(5)以遼寧省大伙房水庫(kù)為例,對(duì)其漫壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了分析,分別給出了不考慮頻率分析不確定性及考慮頻率分析不確定性時(shí),由洪水引起的漫壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值和由洪水與風(fēng)浪聯(lián)合作用引起的漫壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值。數(shù)值分析結(jié)果表明,風(fēng)浪及頻率分析不確定性均對(duì)大伙房水庫(kù)漫壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值產(chǎn)生一定的影響,特別是風(fēng)浪作用。根據(jù)計(jì)算結(jié)果,對(duì)大伙房水庫(kù)的調(diào)度運(yùn)行提出了一些建議,以期在保證大壩安全的前提下提高水庫(kù)興利效益。
[Abstract]:Reservoir dam is a great wealth in the development of human society and plays a vital role in today's society. On the one hand, the reservoir reduces the shortage of water resources in non flood season through the flood season, and reduces the risk of flood in the lower reaches through reservoir regulation. On the other hand, the existence of the reservoir inevitably brings about the new dam failure. Risk, especially the earth rock dam is the most prominent. The main cause of the flood failure in the reservoir is the flood, so the study of the flood characteristics is very important. On the basis of the summary of the risk analysis, this paper analyses the overflow risk of the earth dam, and puts forward a new formula for calculating the risk value of the overflow dam based on the modified Monte Carlo method. At the same time, the method of hydrological frequency analysis, which is closely related to the calculation of dam risk, is studied. A new method of hydrologic frequency analysis and calculation is put forward in view of the shortcomings existing in the existing methods. Finally, the practical application of the above calculation method is taken as an example of Dahuang Fang reservoir in Liaoning province. The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) Based on the related theory and calculation method of risk analysis, an improved Monte Carlo method is proposed to calculate the risk value of the overflow dam. By using the sampling method combining important sampling with Latin hypercube sampling to replace the simple sampling in the direct Monte Carlo method, the sampling effect and convergence of the direct Monte Carlo method are obtained. The effect is analyzed. It is known that the improved Monte Carlo method can effectively improve the sampling efficiency and reduce the calculation workload in the process of calculating the overflow risk. (2) because the existence of the frequency analysis error of the random variable will affect the result of the design value of the random variable, this paper proposes that the frequency analysis should be taken into account in the analysis of the overflow risk. A new method of hydrologic frequency analysis, based on the probability density evolution method, is proposed. (3) in hydrologic frequency analysis and calculation, a new method of hydrologic frequency analysis, based on the probability density evolution method, is proposed in order to avoid the problem of line type restriction and the complex kernel function selection of non parametric method in the calculation of the hydrologic frequency. On the basis of the introduction of the principle of probability density evolution method, a hydrological frequency analysis model is established, and the concrete flow of the model solving method and the calculation of hydrologic frequency design value is given. (4) the Monte Carlo simulation is used to study the robustness of the established hydrological frequency analysis model based on the probability density evolution method. The parameter method has better robustness than the method. In order to further study the characteristics of the proposed method, the numerical analysis is carried out with the Shimen reservoir in Taiwan and the Dalai hydrological station of Nenjiang as an example. The results show that the calculation results of the flood peak flow frequency curve based on the probability density evolution method can be better compared with the common parameter method. This empirical frequency point is a feasible and effective method for calculating the hydrological frequency curve. In addition, the probability density evolution method can also be used as a comparison of the estimation results of the frequency analysis parameter method. It is used to analyze the rationality of the overall distribution of the hypothesis used in the test parameter method. (5) take the Liaoning Dahuang reservoir as an example, the risk of its overflow. The analysis shows that the risk value of the flood caused by the flood and the risk value of the overflow caused by the combined effect of flood and wind wave, which do not consider the uncertainty of frequency analysis and the uncertainty of frequency analysis, show that the uncertainty of wind wave and frequency analysis all have a certain value on the flood risk value of the big Huang reservoir. According to the results of the calculation, some suggestions are put forward for the dispatching and operation of the Dahuofang reservoir, in order to improve the benefit of the reservoir on the premise of guaranteeing the safety of the dam.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：TV641;TV122
本文編號(hào)：2162320
[Abstract]:Reservoir dam is a great wealth in the development of human society and plays a vital role in today's society. On the one hand, the reservoir reduces the shortage of water resources in non flood season through the flood season, and reduces the risk of flood in the lower reaches through reservoir regulation. On the other hand, the existence of the reservoir inevitably brings about the new dam failure. Risk, especially the earth rock dam is the most prominent. The main cause of the flood failure in the reservoir is the flood, so the study of the flood characteristics is very important. On the basis of the summary of the risk analysis, this paper analyses the overflow risk of the earth dam, and puts forward a new formula for calculating the risk value of the overflow dam based on the modified Monte Carlo method. At the same time, the method of hydrological frequency analysis, which is closely related to the calculation of dam risk, is studied. A new method of hydrologic frequency analysis and calculation is put forward in view of the shortcomings existing in the existing methods. Finally, the practical application of the above calculation method is taken as an example of Dahuang Fang reservoir in Liaoning province. The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) Based on the related theory and calculation method of risk analysis, an improved Monte Carlo method is proposed to calculate the risk value of the overflow dam. By using the sampling method combining important sampling with Latin hypercube sampling to replace the simple sampling in the direct Monte Carlo method, the sampling effect and convergence of the direct Monte Carlo method are obtained. The effect is analyzed. It is known that the improved Monte Carlo method can effectively improve the sampling efficiency and reduce the calculation workload in the process of calculating the overflow risk. (2) because the existence of the frequency analysis error of the random variable will affect the result of the design value of the random variable, this paper proposes that the frequency analysis should be taken into account in the analysis of the overflow risk. A new method of hydrologic frequency analysis, based on the probability density evolution method, is proposed. (3) in hydrologic frequency analysis and calculation, a new method of hydrologic frequency analysis, based on the probability density evolution method, is proposed in order to avoid the problem of line type restriction and the complex kernel function selection of non parametric method in the calculation of the hydrologic frequency. On the basis of the introduction of the principle of probability density evolution method, a hydrological frequency analysis model is established, and the concrete flow of the model solving method and the calculation of hydrologic frequency design value is given. (4) the Monte Carlo simulation is used to study the robustness of the established hydrological frequency analysis model based on the probability density evolution method. The parameter method has better robustness than the method. In order to further study the characteristics of the proposed method, the numerical analysis is carried out with the Shimen reservoir in Taiwan and the Dalai hydrological station of Nenjiang as an example. The results show that the calculation results of the flood peak flow frequency curve based on the probability density evolution method can be better compared with the common parameter method. This empirical frequency point is a feasible and effective method for calculating the hydrological frequency curve. In addition, the probability density evolution method can also be used as a comparison of the estimation results of the frequency analysis parameter method. It is used to analyze the rationality of the overall distribution of the hypothesis used in the test parameter method. (5) take the Liaoning Dahuang reservoir as an example, the risk of its overflow. The analysis shows that the risk value of the flood caused by the flood and the risk value of the overflow caused by the combined effect of flood and wind wave, which do not consider the uncertainty of frequency analysis and the uncertainty of frequency analysis, show that the uncertainty of wind wave and frequency analysis all have a certain value on the flood risk value of the big Huang reservoir. According to the results of the calculation, some suggestions are put forward for the dispatching and operation of the Dahuofang reservoir, in order to improve the benefit of the reservoir on the premise of guaranteeing the safety of the dam.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：TV641;TV122
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