【摘要】：我國是一個(gè)筑壩大國，在已建成的水庫大壩中，以土石壩數(shù)目最多，土石壩的安全問題受到越來越多的重視。為了解壩體的真實(shí)安全狀況，有必要對大壩原型觀測資料進(jìn)行處理和分析，綜合考慮影響土石壩安全的各種因素，對壩體性態(tài)做出一個(gè)完整的、全面的評價(jià)，進(jìn)而針對評價(jià)結(jié)果采取相應(yīng)的措施以保證大壩安全運(yùn)行。 論文針對最小二乘法在求解回歸參數(shù)時(shí)沒有考慮異方差的問題，利用加權(quán)最小二乘法對其改進(jìn)，并用加權(quán)最小二乘法對土石壩滲流觀測資料進(jìn)行了分析；考慮到土石壩安全評價(jià)體系的實(shí)際特點(diǎn)，，提出了模糊網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析模型，該模型適宜于解決模糊性和不確定性問題，并且其中包含的網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法使權(quán)重的確定更加客觀。 具體的內(nèi)容有以下幾個(gè)方面： （1）從理論上分析了幾種常用的回歸分析方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)，針對最小二乘法的不足，應(yīng)用加權(quán)最小二乘法來消除異方差現(xiàn)象，并結(jié)合實(shí)例加以應(yīng)用。 （2）分析了目前較常用的幾種多指標(biāo)綜合評價(jià)方法，針對本文研究的實(shí)際問題，將模糊綜合評判法和網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法相結(jié)合，并引入“三角模糊數(shù)”理論，構(gòu)造基于三角模糊數(shù)的模糊網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法。 （3）將模糊網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法運(yùn)用到實(shí)際水庫大壩的安全綜合評價(jià)中，以驗(yàn)證方法的合理性。同時(shí)，將模型的計(jì)算結(jié)果與模糊層次分析法的結(jié)果進(jìn)行對比，結(jié)果表明模糊網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法有一定的優(yōu)越性。
[Abstract]:China is a large dam construction country, among which the earth-rock dam has the largest number, and the safety of earth-rock dam has been paid more and more attention. In order to understand the true safety condition of the dam, it is necessary to process and analyze the observation data of the dam prototype, synthetically consider the various factors affecting the safety of the earth-rock dam, and make a complete and comprehensive evaluation of the dam behavior. Then the corresponding measures are taken to ensure the safe operation of the dam. Aiming at the problem that the least square method does not take heteroscedasticity into account in solving the regression parameters, the weighted least square method is used to improve the method and the weighted least square method is used to analyze the seepage observation data of earth-rock dams. Considering the practical characteristics of the safety evaluation system for earth-rock dams, a fuzzy network analysis model is proposed, which is suitable for solving the fuzzy and uncertain problems, and the network analysis method contained therein makes the weight determination more objective. The specific contents are as follows: (1) the advantages and disadvantages of several commonly used regression analysis methods are analyzed theoretically, and the weighted least square method is used to eliminate the heteroscedasticity phenomenon in view of the shortcomings of the least square method. And the application is combined with examples. (2) several commonly used multi-index comprehensive evaluation methods are analyzed. In view of the practical problems studied in this paper, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is combined with the network analysis method. The theory of "triangular fuzzy number" is introduced to construct the fuzzy network analysis method based on triangular fuzzy number. (3) the fuzzy network analysis method is applied to the comprehensive evaluation of reservoir dam safety in order to verify the rationality of the method. At the same time, the calculation results of the model are compared with the results of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, the results show that the fuzzy network analysis has some advantages.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：鄭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV641;TV698.1

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