【摘要】：以水資源短缺、水污染嚴重、水生態(tài)惡化為主要內(nèi)容的“水危機”問題已成為制約社會經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展的瓶頸之一。有效的環(huán)境規(guī)制是提高資源利用效率、緩解環(huán)境污染、提高環(huán)境質(zhì)量的可行之策,但近年來我國所實施的環(huán)境規(guī)制政策效果不甚理想,環(huán)境質(zhì)量仍舊呈現(xiàn)惡化趨勢。政府在環(huán)境治理上的“搭便車”行為和環(huán)境政策制定上的“競相到底”行為使得環(huán)境規(guī)制政策效果大打折扣,可見省際間的環(huán)境治理效果和環(huán)境政策制定存在相互影響。因此,本文聚焦于水資源領域的環(huán)境規(guī)制,以水規(guī)制強度為研究對象,深入探究中國省際間水規(guī)制強度的空間特性及其節(jié)水減排效應,對于制定正確的水規(guī)制政策、解決“水危機”問題具有重要意義。本文圍繞水規(guī)制強度這一核心,以水規(guī)制強度的“測度”——“空間關聯(lián)性”——“節(jié)水減排效應”為主線,回答了以下三個問題:一是水規(guī)制強度的空間分布及其演進有何特征規(guī)律、是否存在空間依賴性?二是從水質(zhì)和水量角度細分的水規(guī)制強度對節(jié)水減排效應是否具有專屬性?三是納入空間因素后,水規(guī)制強度對節(jié)水減排效應的作用有何變化,是否存在空間溢出?本文基于網(wǎng)絡公開信息搜索到的1978年以來我國30個省(市、自治區(qū))省市兩級政府部門頒布的八項涉水類制度體系的政策文件數(shù)據(jù),運用廣義最大熵原理測算得到了1978-2014年中國30個省(市、自治區(qū))的水規(guī)制強度,從而構建了三類水規(guī)制強度指數(shù):水規(guī)制綜合強度指數(shù)(Fp)、水量規(guī)制綜合強度指數(shù)(Fq1)和水質(zhì)規(guī)制綜合強度指數(shù)(Fq2)并估計其節(jié)水減排效應。在此基礎上分析并檢驗了三類水規(guī)制強度指數(shù)的空間分布特征、變化趨勢及其空間相關性模式和空間動態(tài)躍遷路徑。最后,分別建立傳統(tǒng)范式下(未考慮空間因素)和空間范式下(考慮空間因素)的中國省際水規(guī)制強度節(jié)水減排效應模型,并進行比較分析水規(guī)制強度空間溢出效應的大小。主要得出以下結論:(1)中國省際水規(guī)制強度具有顯著的空間集聚特征和空間路徑依賴性,表現(xiàn)為正向的空間自相關性和地區(qū)間空間關系的穩(wěn)定性,且不同類型水規(guī)制強度的發(fā)展路徑既求同又存異。(2)水規(guī)制強度存在空間溢出效應,本地區(qū)的節(jié)水減排效應受到“鄰居”地區(qū)水規(guī)制強度的影響。省際間水規(guī)制強度的空間溢出效應對我國節(jié)水減排的的整體提升具有促進作用。(3)提高水規(guī)制強度能夠增強節(jié)水效應和減排效應,不同類型水規(guī)制制度所產(chǎn)生的節(jié)水效應和減排效應強度具有明顯差異,減排效應下的水質(zhì)規(guī)制制度強度具有專屬性。
[Abstract]:The "water crisis", which is characterized by shortage of water resources, serious water pollution and deterioration of water ecology, has become one of the bottlenecks restricting the sustainable development of social economy. Effective environmental regulation is a feasible way to improve the efficiency of resource utilization, alleviate environmental pollution and improve environmental quality. However, the effect of environmental regulation policy implemented in China in recent years is not satisfactory, and the environmental quality is still deteriorating. The "hitchhiking" behavior of the government on environmental governance and the "race to the bottom" in the formulation of environmental policy make the effect of environmental regulation policy greatly reduced, so it can be seen that there are mutual influences between the environmental governance effect and the environmental policy formulation among provinces. Therefore, this paper focuses on the environmental regulation in the field of water resources, taking the intensity of water regulation as the research object, deeply explores the spatial characteristics of the water regulation intensity and its water-saving and emission reduction effects between provinces in China, and makes the correct water regulation policy. It is of great significance to solve the problem of water crisis. This paper focuses on the core of water regulation intensity, taking the "measure" of water regulation intensity "spatial relevance"-"water-saving emission reduction effect" as the main line. The following three questions are answered: first, what are the characteristics of the spatial distribution of water regulation intensity and its evolution, and whether there is spatial dependence? The second is whether the water regulation intensity subdivided from the water quality and quantity angle has the specificity to the water saving and emission reduction effect. Third, after incorporating the spatial factors, how does the effect of water regulation intensity change on the effect of water-saving and emission reduction? is there a spatial spillover? This paper is based on the data of eight policy documents issued by government departments of 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China since 1978, which have been published by government departments at the provincial (municipal) level and the provincial and municipal levels since 1978, based on the public information search on the Internet. The intensity of water regulation in 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) of China from 1978 to 2014 was calculated by using the principle of generalized maximum entropy. Thus, three types of water regulation intensity indices are constructed: water regulation comprehensive intensity index (Fp), water regulation comprehensive intensity index (Fq1) and water quality regulation comprehensive intensity index (Fq2), and their water-saving and emission reduction effects are estimated. On this basis, the spatial distribution characteristics, the change trend, the spatial correlation model and the spatial dynamic transition path of three kinds of water regulation intensity indices are analyzed and tested. Finally, the models of water-saving and emission reduction effects of interprovincial water regulation intensity in China are established under the traditional paradigm (without spatial factor) and spatial paradigm (considering spatial factor), and the magnitude of spatial spillover effect of water regulation intensity is compared and analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the intensity of interprovincial water regulation in China has significant spatial agglomeration characteristics and spatial path dependence, which is manifested by the positive spatial autocorrelation and the stability of regional spatial relationship. And the development paths of different types of water regulation intensity are both common and different. (2) there is spatial spillover effect of water regulation intensity, and the water saving and emission reduction effect in this area is affected by the water regulation intensity in "neighbor" area. Spatial spillover effect of interprovincial water regulation intensity can promote the overall improvement of water saving and emission reduction in China. (3) improving water regulation intensity can enhance water saving effect and emission reduction effect. The intensity of water-saving effect and emission-reduction effect of different types of water regulation system is obviously different, and the intensity of water quality regulation system under the effect of emission reduction is unique.
【學位授予單位】：浙江理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV213.4

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