【摘要】：為克服較大尺度城市徑流的定量難題,引入了分布式流域水文模型(SWAT),對紹興城市徑流開展了定量模擬及時(shí)空演變規(guī)律分析。經(jīng)DEM建模分析,將紹興城市置于合適尺度的流域內(nèi)建立SWAT模型;在敏感性分析的基礎(chǔ)上,利用徑流監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)對模型進(jìn)行了校準(zhǔn)與驗(yàn)證,模型評價(jià)結(jié)果表明,所有站點(diǎn)校準(zhǔn)期與驗(yàn)證期的平均相對誤差Re(-5.29%~8.81%)、判定系數(shù)R2(0.91~0.96)和效率系數(shù)Ens(0.90~0.94)均滿足年水平和月水平徑流定量要求。在此基礎(chǔ)上,以1992~2011年的降雨為驅(qū)動(dòng)模擬得到了子流域的月徑流數(shù)據(jù);最后利用地統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)方法(GSM)對紹興城市徑流的時(shí)空演變規(guī)律進(jìn)行了分析,并得到了關(guān)鍵源區(qū),為紹興城市水資源保護(hù)與利用提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:In order to overcome the quantitative problem of large-scale urban runoff, a distributed watershed hydrological model (SWAT) was introduced to simulate the urban runoff in Shaoxing city and analyze the temporal and spatial evolution law. Through Dem modeling and analysis, the SWAT model is established by placing Shaoxing city in a watershed of suitable scale, and the model is calibrated and verified by runoff monitoring data on the basis of sensitivity analysis. The average relative error between calibration period and verification period is re (-5.29 / 8.81%), the determination coefficient R2 (0.91g / 0.96) and the efficiency coefficient Ens (0.90 ~ 0.94) meet the quantitative requirements of annual and monthly levels of runoff. On this basis, the monthly runoff data of the sub-watershed are obtained by using the rainfall from 1992 to 2011 as the driving simulation. Finally, the temporal and spatial evolution law of the urban runoff in Shaoxing is analyzed by using the geostatistics method (GSM), and the key source areas are obtained. It provides scientific basis for the protection and utilization of water resources in Shaoxing city.
【作者單位】： 紹興文理學(xué)院元培學(xué)院建筑工程系;紹興市環(huán)境監(jiān)測中心站;
【基金】：紹興市科技計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2014B70041,2014B70049)
【分類號(hào)】：P333
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本文編號(hào)：2131187