本文選題：萬家寨上游河段 + 冰情特性　； 參考：《內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在萬家寨水利樞紐修建前,距壩96km以上河段為穩(wěn)定封凍河段,以下河段冬季一般不封河,河道僅有岸冰和流冰花,整個冬季以流凌為主,封、開河時期不產(chǎn)生冰塞冰壩等險情,不發(fā)生凌汛災(zāi)害。1998年萬家寨水庫建成后,改變了萬家寨上游河道天然形態(tài),使冰情特征發(fā)生了很大變化。由于水庫蓄水,庫區(qū)水面比降和回水末端流速減小,冰凌輸移能力明顯減小,下泄的大量冰花滯留在庫區(qū),成為首封地點(diǎn),然后向上游延伸,使得在封開河期卡冰結(jié)壩現(xiàn)象頻發(fā),冰凌災(zāi)害嚴(yán)重。本文首先根據(jù)1987-2016年黃河萬家寨上游河段的歷史實(shí)測冰情資料,統(tǒng)計(jì)分析了該河段的冰情特征以及萬家寨水庫運(yùn)行后出現(xiàn)的新冰情,并對影響該河段冰情的河道形態(tài)、氣象條件、水庫調(diào)度和水力因素等方面進(jìn)行分析。其次將支持向量機(jī)模型(SVR)、BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型和偏最小二乘回歸模型(PLS)應(yīng)用于萬家寨上游河段的流凌日期、封河日期和開河日期預(yù)報中。最后利用改進(jìn)累積負(fù)氣溫法和統(tǒng)一度-日法對萬家寨上游河段的冰厚進(jìn)行了模擬及驗(yàn)證。研究表明萬家寨上游河段冰情特征規(guī)律是:封河順序由庫區(qū)自下而上,封凍形式為平立封相交;開河時庫區(qū)立封河段及立封河段以下解凍較上游晚,以上河段由下游向上游開河,開河形式為文開、武開、半文半武。1998年萬家寨水庫運(yùn)行后,河道形態(tài)及水力因素的改變,氣溫的升高導(dǎo)致冰情發(fā)生了明顯的變化,主要表現(xiàn)為:流凌、封河日期推遲,開河日期提前,不封凍河段變成穩(wěn)定封凍河段,封凍長度增加,封河期水位升高,冰塞冰壩險情增加。萬家寨上游河段的流凌日期、封河日期和開河日期預(yù)報和冰厚模擬的結(jié)果表明:所建立的三個模型精度均滿足預(yù)報要求,預(yù)報結(jié)果良好,其中偏最小二乘回歸模型預(yù)測效果最好,對流凌、封河和開河日期預(yù)報精度均為100%,均屬于甲等預(yù)報方案;支持向量機(jī)模型預(yù)測效果次之;BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測效果相對較差。統(tǒng)一度-日法模型對萬家寨上游河段冰厚的模擬精度明顯高于改進(jìn)累積負(fù)氣溫法,可更好的運(yùn)用于該河段冰厚模擬中,為當(dāng)?shù)胤懒铚p災(zāi)工作提供可靠的理論依據(jù)和有效的技術(shù)指導(dǎo)。
[Abstract]:Before the construction of Wanjiazhai Water Conservancy Project, the section above the dam 96km was a stable frozen reach, and the following reaches generally did not seal the river in winter. The river channel had only shore ice and floating ice flowers, and the whole winter was dominated by the flow of ice and ice, and the closure of the river did not result in dangerous conditions such as ice slugs and ice dams during the period of Kaihe River. After the completion of Wanjiazhai Reservoir in 1998, the natural form of river course in the upper reaches of Wanjiazhai has been changed and the ice characteristics have changed greatly. As a result of the reservoir water storage, the water surface specific drop and the return end velocity decrease, and the ice transport capacity is obviously reduced. A large number of ice flowers released from the reservoir area remain in the reservoir area, become the first seal site, and then extend upstream. During the period of Fengkai River, the phenomenon of carapace and damming occurs frequently, and the ice disaster is serious. Based on the historical measured ice data of the upper reaches of the Yellow River Wanjiazhai from 1987 to 2016, the ice regime characteristics of the reach and the new ice conditions after the operation of the Wanjiazhai Reservoir are statistically analyzed, and the river channel shape and meteorological conditions that affect the ice condition of the reach are also discussed in this paper. Reservoir operation and hydraulic factors were analyzed. Secondly, the support vector machine (SVR) BP neural network model and partial least square regression model (PLS) are applied to the prediction of river flow, closure and Kaihe in the upper reaches of Wanjiazhai. Finally, the ice thickness of the upper reaches of Wanjiazhai is simulated and verified by the improved accumulated negative temperature method and the unified degree-day method. The study shows that the ice regime characteristics of the upper reaches of Wanjiazhai are as follows: the sequence of river closure is from the bottom to the top of the reservoir area, and the freezing form is Pingli seal intersecting, and the thawing of the Lifeng reach and below the Lifeng reach in the Kaihe reservoir area is later than that in the upper reaches. In the form of Wenkai, Wukai, and half-Wenjiazhai in 1998, after the operation of Wanjiazhai Reservoir, the changes of river channel shape and hydraulic factors, and the increase of air temperature, resulted in obvious changes in ice conditions. The main performance is that the river flow, the date of river closure is delayed, the date of opening river is advanced, the section without freezing is changed into a stable frozen reach, the length of the frozen river increases, the water level rises during the period of river closure, and the dangerous situation of ice slug ice dam increases. The results of the prediction and ice thickness simulation show that the accuracy of the three models all meet the requirement of forecast, and the forecast results are good. The partial least square regression model has the best prediction effect, and the forecasting accuracy of convection, river closure and Kaihe is 100, which belongs to the first class prediction scheme, and the prediction effect of support vector machine model is inferior to that of BP neural network. The accuracy of simulation of ice thickness in the upper reaches of Wanjiazhai is obviously higher than that of the improved cumulative negative temperature method, which can be better used in the simulation of ice thickness in the upper reaches of Wanjiazhai River. To provide reliable theoretical basis and effective technical guidance for local ice prevention and disaster reduction work.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV875

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