發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-02 15:00

  本文選題：河流 + 寬深比��； 參考：《泥沙研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：以混沌理論為基礎(chǔ),提出了河流混沌特性分析方法。選擇對(duì)河流演變有重要影響的寬深比時(shí)間序列和水沙時(shí)間序列,首先對(duì)這些時(shí)間序列進(jìn)行相空間重構(gòu),計(jì)算不同河型的寬深比、徑流量和含沙量時(shí)間序列的飽和關(guān)聯(lián)維數(shù)和最大Lyapunov指數(shù),然后通過(guò)求這些時(shí)間序列的飽和關(guān)聯(lián)維數(shù)的加權(quán)平均值和最大Lyapunov指數(shù)的加權(quán)平均值,得出不同河型的混沌特性。以黃河下游的6個(gè)河段3種河型為例,對(duì)寬深比、徑流量和含沙量時(shí)間序列,分別進(jìn)行混沌特性分析。研究結(jié)果表明,河流演變具有明顯的混沌特性,但不同河型表現(xiàn)出的混沌特性不同,游蕩河型混沌特性較強(qiáng),彎曲河型混沌特性較弱。通過(guò)對(duì)河流混沌特性分析,有助于加深對(duì)河流演變預(yù)測(cè)的進(jìn)一步認(rèn)識(shí)。根據(jù)混沌理論,混沌系統(tǒng)短期行為可以預(yù)測(cè),而長(zhǎng)期不能預(yù)測(cè)。所以,河流演變預(yù)測(cè)是短期可行,長(zhǎng)期很難預(yù)測(cè)、甚至是不可預(yù)測(cè)的。
[Abstract]:Based on the chaos theory, a method for analyzing the chaotic characteristics of rivers is proposed. The time series of width to depth ratio and the time series of water and sediment which have important influence on river evolution are selected. Firstly, the phase space reconstruction of these time series is carried out to calculate the ratio of width to depth of different river types. The saturation correlation dimension and the maximum Lyapunov exponent of the time series of runoff and sediment content are obtained, and the chaotic characteristics of different river types are obtained by calculating the weighted average of the saturated correlation dimension and the weighted average of the maximum Lyapunov exponent of these time series. Taking three types of rivers in 6 reaches of the lower reaches of the Yellow River as examples, the chaotic characteristics of time series of width to depth ratio, runoff and sediment content are analyzed respectively. The results show that the evolution of rivers has obvious chaotic characteristics, but the chaotic characteristics of different river types are different, the wandering river type chaotic characteristics are stronger, and the curved river type chaotic characteristics are weak. By analyzing the chaotic characteristics of rivers, it is helpful to deepen the understanding of river evolution prediction. According to chaos theory, the short-term behavior of chaotic system can be predicted, but the long-term can not be predicted. Therefore, river evolution prediction is feasible in the short-term, difficult to predict in the long-term, even unpredictable.
【作者單位】： 天津大學(xué)水利工程仿真與安全國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;大禹節(jié)水(天津)有限公司;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金創(chuàng)新研究群體科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(51321065);國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(50679053)
【分類號(hào)】：TV147

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