本文選題：黃龍灘水庫 + HEC-HMS模型�。� 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：黃龍灘水庫的洪水預(yù)報一般采用新安江模型,其他模型較為少見。鑒此,本文選取3種不同機(jī)理的水文模型(分散式概念性水文模型——新安江三水源模型、集總式概念性水文模型——NAM模型、分布式水文物理模型——HEC-HMS模型),并嘗試將其應(yīng)用于黃龍灘水庫洪水預(yù)報中。 首先,結(jié)合國內(nèi)外已有研究,對3種水文模型的原理、產(chǎn)匯流機(jī)制以及各個模型的運(yùn)行環(huán)境進(jìn)行分析；其次,以各模型原理為基礎(chǔ),輸入模型驅(qū)動數(shù)據(jù)及主要參數(shù),確定模擬過程中的計算方法,建立數(shù)學(xué)模型；最后,分別利用9場率定期和7場驗證期洪水對各模型進(jìn)行參數(shù)率定及驗證,采用Nash系數(shù)和相關(guān)系數(shù)作為精度評定指標(biāo),并對模擬結(jié)果進(jìn)行對比分析。結(jié)果表明,新安江模型模擬效果較好,HEC-HMS模型次之,NAM模型最低。但各模型在率定期和驗證期內(nèi)的平均Nash系數(shù)和平均相關(guān)系數(shù)均滿足精度要求,即在諸河流域的適用性都較好。以上研究對3種水文模型在諸河流域的適用性進(jìn)行了驗證,為黃龍灘水庫洪水預(yù)報技術(shù)的研究拓展了方向。
[Abstract]:The Xinanjiang model is generally used in flood forecasting of Huanglongtan Reservoir, while other models are rare. In this paper, three hydrological models with different mechanisms (decentralized conceptual hydrological model, Xinanjiang three water source model, lumped conceptual hydrological model, NAM model) are selected in this paper. The distributed hydrophysical model, HEC-HMS model, is applied to the flood forecast of Huanglongtan Reservoir. Firstly, the principle of three hydrological models, the mechanism of production and confluence and the operating environment of each model are analyzed, and the driving data and main parameters of each model are input based on the principle of each model. Finally, the parameters of each model are determined and verified by 9 periodic and 7 flood periods respectively, and Nash coefficient and correlation coefficient are used as precision evaluation indexes. The simulation results are compared and analyzed. The results show that Xinanjiang model has better simulation effect than HEC-HMS model and NAM model is the lowest. However, the average Nash coefficients and average correlation coefficients of each model meet the precision requirements in the periodic rate period and the verification period, that is, the applicability of the models in the river basins is good. The above studies verify the applicability of the three hydrological models in the river basins and expand the research direction of flood forecasting techniques for Huanglongtan Reservoir.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV122;P338

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本文編號：2089510