發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-28 13:13

  本文選題：徑流變化 + Budyko假設(shè)��； 參考：《地理學(xué)報(bào)》2016年11期

【摘要】：利用中國(guó)372個(gè)水文站月徑流數(shù)據(jù)(1960-2000年)及41個(gè)水文站年徑流數(shù)據(jù)(2001-2014年),采用基于Budyko假設(shè)的水熱耦合平衡方程,構(gòu)建氣候變化和人類活動(dòng)對(duì)徑流變化影響定量評(píng)估模型,在Penman-Monteith潛在蒸發(fā)分析基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)一步分析氣象因子對(duì)徑流變化的彈性系數(shù),量化氣候變化和人類活動(dòng)對(duì)徑流變化的影響。結(jié)果表明:1中國(guó)北方地區(qū)流域徑流變化對(duì)各氣象因子彈性系數(shù)明顯大于中國(guó)南方地區(qū)。就全國(guó)而言,徑流變化對(duì)各因子的彈性系數(shù)為:降水土地利用/土地覆蓋變化(LUCC)相對(duì)濕度太陽(yáng)輻射最高氣溫風(fēng)速最低氣溫;2 1980-2000年,氣候變化總體上有利于增加中國(guó)年徑流量,而降水對(duì)年徑流量增加的貢獻(xiàn)最為顯著;3 1980-2000年,中國(guó)南方流域中,氣候變化對(duì)年徑流變化的影響以增加作用為主,而北方流域,以減少年徑流作用為主。對(duì)中國(guó)大多數(shù)流域徑流變化而言,人類活動(dòng)的影響主要以減少年徑流量為主。2001-2014年,氣候變化以減少?gòu)搅髁繛橹?人類活動(dòng)對(duì)徑流變化的影響程度明顯增強(qiáng),氣候變化與人類活動(dòng)對(duì)徑流變化的貢獻(xiàn)率分別為53.5%、46.5%。該研究對(duì)氣候變化與人類活動(dòng)影響下,中國(guó)水資源規(guī)劃管理、防災(zāi)減災(zāi)及保障水資源安全具有重要理論與現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:Based on the monthly runoff data of 372 hydrological stations in China (1960-2000) and the annual runoff data of 41 hydrological stations (2001-2014), a quantitative assessment model of the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes was established by using the coupled balance equation of water and heat based on Budyko's hypothesis. On the basis of Penman-Monteith potential evaporation analysis, the elastic coefficients of meteorological factors on runoff changes and the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes are further analyzed. The results show that the elasticity coefficient of runoff variation to various meteorological factors in the northern part of China is higher than that in the southern part of China. As far as the whole country is concerned, the elasticity coefficient of runoff changes to various factors is as follows: precipitation, land use / land cover change (Lucc), relative humidity, solar radiation, maximum temperature, wind speed, minimum temperature, 1980-2000. Climate change is conducive to increasing annual runoff in China. The effect of climate change on the annual runoff change in southern China was mainly increased, while in the northern watershed, the decrease of annual runoff was the most significant contribution of precipitation to the increase of annual runoff. For most watershed runoff changes in China, the impact of human activities is mainly on reducing annual runoff. 2001-2014, climate change mainly reduces runoff, and the impact of human activities on runoff change is obviously enhanced. The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff change are 53.5% and 46.5% respectively. Under the influence of climate change and human activities, this study has important theoretical and practical significance in planning and management of water resources, disaster prevention and mitigation, and ensuring the safety of water resources in China.
【作者單位】： 中山大學(xué)水資源與環(huán)境系;中山大學(xué)華南地區(qū)水循環(huán)與水安全廣東省普通高校重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;北京師范大學(xué)地表過(guò)程與資源生態(tài)國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;北京師范大學(xué)減災(zāi)與應(yīng)急管理研究院;河海大學(xué)水文水資源學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家杰出青年科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51425903) 國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金重大項(xiàng)目(51190091) 安徽省自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(1508085MD65)~~
【分類號(hào)】：P333

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本文編號(hào)：2078106