本文選題：梯級水庫群 + 最大可能降雨�。� 參考：《大連理工大學(xué)》2015年博士論文

【摘要】：梯級水庫群受到不同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源的綜合影響,其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源復(fù)雜,災(zāi)害鏈長,影響程度大。從流域整體安全性的角度出發(fā),研究分析梯級水庫群系統(tǒng)的洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題顯得尤為重要。一個(gè)流域梯級式開發(fā)的水利工程,是空間中一系列單元組成的系統(tǒng),各單元之間相互聯(lián)系,上游水庫失效將會對相鄰的下游水庫帶來一定程度的影響,從而對整個(gè)系統(tǒng)的安全性造成影響。本文以此為切入點(diǎn),以大渡河流域梯級水庫群系統(tǒng)為例,研究梯級水庫群系統(tǒng)的洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析問題。主要研究內(nèi)容及成果如下：(1)構(gòu)建梯級水庫群多源風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源分析的理論框架,依據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的主要流程,建立了包括風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源的識別、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的量化和估計(jì)及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)的理論體系。在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識別方面,通過分析梯級水庫群的結(jié)構(gòu)特征,認(rèn)為梯級水庫群在運(yùn)行中主要受到自然、工程兩類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源的影響。本文主要分析在這兩種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源的影響下,系統(tǒng)整體的洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題。分別從物理成因和概率統(tǒng)計(jì)的角度識別系統(tǒng)中的薄弱性工程。并在分析潰壩洪水的基礎(chǔ)上,對系統(tǒng)中水庫原設(shè)計(jì)參數(shù)提出合理的建議。在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)量化和估計(jì)方面,采用水庫失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率模型分析單元水庫的失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率,建立以貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)為理論基礎(chǔ)的梯級水庫群系統(tǒng)失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率模型,量化系統(tǒng)中各水庫及其整體在原設(shè)計(jì)參數(shù)和建議設(shè)計(jì)參數(shù)情況下失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的后驗(yàn)概率。在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)方面,通過計(jì)算兩種情況下系統(tǒng)的生命風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失,評價(jià)系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是否在可接受范圍內(nèi)。通過以上理論體系的構(gòu)建,對全文的研究提供支撐。(2)分析系統(tǒng)中各水庫工程等級、防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn)等設(shè)計(jì)參數(shù),以及各水庫設(shè)計(jì)洪水的計(jì)算方法,發(fā)現(xiàn)設(shè)計(jì)洪水均是根據(jù)其控制水文站的設(shè)計(jì)洪水成果利用面積內(nèi)插法求得。僅根據(jù)各水庫的設(shè)計(jì)參數(shù),無法指定系統(tǒng)中的薄弱性工程。為了從流域整體的角度考慮各水庫的狀態(tài),以及在上游水庫發(fā)生潰壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí),下游各水庫的安全性。通過分析大渡河自然地理特征和氣候特性,依據(jù)流域中主雨區(qū)的不同,分為以瀘定到瀑布溝區(qū)間降雨為主(A7)和以瀘定以上降雨為主(B7)兩種情景。利用水文氣象學(xué)的方法計(jì)算出大渡河梯級系統(tǒng)中各研究水庫的最大可能降水(PMP),并轉(zhuǎn)化為相應(yīng)的最大可能洪水(PMF)。(3)識別系統(tǒng)的薄弱性工程,從物理成因的角度,分別在兩種降雨情境下識別系統(tǒng)中結(jié)構(gòu)性和功能性失效狀態(tài)的水庫。從數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)的角度,在計(jì)算得到各單元水庫失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率的基礎(chǔ)上,以現(xiàn)行規(guī)范和特級水庫風(fēng)險(xiǎn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)判定系統(tǒng)中結(jié)構(gòu)性和功能性兩種失效狀態(tài)的水庫。將兩個(gè)角度的識別結(jié)果對比分析,最終確定系統(tǒng)中的薄弱性工程�？紤]到土石壩漫頂易潰的原因,利用潰壩分析軟件,計(jì)算系統(tǒng)中水庫漫頂潰壩,潰壩洪水演進(jìn)至下游后,若造成水庫連潰的情況,此時(shí)系統(tǒng)中各水庫的狀態(tài)。并以流域安全為目標(biāo),對系統(tǒng)中水庫的設(shè)計(jì)參數(shù)提出合理的建議。在梯級水庫群系統(tǒng)中,薄弱性工程是觸發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源,一旦系統(tǒng)中發(fā)生連潰事件,必須保證控制性工程的安全性,使其能夠分擔(dān)和消納由于上游水庫失效對系統(tǒng)造成的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),起到阻斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的作用。(4)針對梯級水庫群系統(tǒng)中單元水庫失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)量化評價(jià)問題,本文分別分析三個(gè)方面的內(nèi)容：單元水庫超標(biāo)準(zhǔn)洪水洪峰序列的隨機(jī)分布特征,調(diào)洪最高水位序列的隨機(jī)分布特征,以及單元水庫的失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率�；诮y(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)中極值理論,分別以校核洪峰流量、校核洪水位、壩頂高程為閾值,研究大渡河流域梯級水庫的超標(biāo)準(zhǔn)(超校核)洪峰流量隨機(jī)分布特征和各水庫的調(diào)洪最高水位的隨機(jī)分布特征。結(jié)果表明：大渡河流域梯級水庫的超標(biāo)準(zhǔn)(超校核)洪峰流量與P-III型曲線擬合較好,符合我國大部分地區(qū)洪水要素的分布規(guī)律；各水庫的調(diào)洪最高水位與對數(shù)函數(shù)擬合較好。(5)在梯級水庫系統(tǒng)中單元水庫的失效概率分析方面,依據(jù)梯級水庫群中各梯級的開發(fā)次序,將大渡河干流的梯級水庫根據(jù)不同的建設(shè)時(shí)期分為三個(gè)階段,利用蒙特卡洛模擬方法分別計(jì)算各單元水庫的失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率。將三個(gè)階段中各單元水庫的失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率和已識別出的流域中的薄弱性工程對比分析,結(jié)果表明,為了保證流域長期的安全,需將系統(tǒng)中各單元水庫依據(jù)其對流域安全的影響,分批次建設(shè)于流域中。同時(shí),所得到的各單元水庫失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率將為下一章搭建貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)算系統(tǒng)失效概率提供數(shù)據(jù)支撐。(6)由于梯級系統(tǒng)的物理結(jié)構(gòu)特性,系統(tǒng)中各單元水庫之間也存在著一定的相關(guān)性,系統(tǒng)中各單元水庫的失效是一個(gè)條件概率事件。鑒于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)在不確定知識的表達(dá)、因果推理等方面有突出的優(yōu)點(diǎn),本文建立基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的梯級系統(tǒng)失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率分析模型。根據(jù)流域中的控制性工程,將系統(tǒng)劃分為巴拉-雙江口、猴子巖-瀑布溝兩段(D1、D2)。利用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)分別分析D1、D2段系統(tǒng)在原設(shè)計(jì)參數(shù)和建議設(shè)計(jì)參數(shù)兩種情況下的失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率。同時(shí),建立各單元水庫的狀態(tài)對系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生影響的貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型。結(jié)果表明,在不同情景下,各段系統(tǒng)中,建議設(shè)計(jì)參數(shù)的情況下與原設(shè)計(jì)參數(shù)相比,失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率明顯降低。各段系統(tǒng)的失效概率和其控制性工程的失效概率較為接近。本文分別從特級水庫的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和生命風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失的可接受程度兩個(gè)方面評價(jià)梯級水庫群系統(tǒng)失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn),結(jié)果表明,大渡河流域梯級水庫系統(tǒng)在建議設(shè)計(jì)參數(shù)情況下,系統(tǒng)失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有顯著降低并且在可接受的范圍內(nèi)。
[Abstract]:The cascade reservoir group is affected by different risk sources, its risk source is complex, the disaster chain is long and the influence degree is great. It is particularly important to study and analyze the flood risk of cascade reservoir group system from the point of view of the overall safety of the basin. The water profit project developed by a cascade cascade is a system of a series of units in the space. Each unit is connected with each other. The upstream reservoir failure will bring a certain degree of influence on the adjacent downstream reservoirs, thus affecting the safety of the whole system. This paper takes this as a breakthrough point and takes the cascade reservoir group system of Dadu River Basin as an example to study the flood risk analysis of the cascade reservoir groups. The results are as follows: (1) the theoretical framework of multi source risk source analysis of cascade reservoirs is constructed. According to the main flow of risk analysis, a theoretical system including the identification of risk sources, quantification and estimation of risk and risk assessment is established. In the aspect of risk identification, the structure characteristics of cascade reservoirs are analyzed, and the cascade reservoirs are considered to be in operation. It is mainly influenced by the two types of risk sources of nature and engineering. This paper mainly analyzes the overall flood risk of the system under the influence of the two types of risk sources, and identifies the weak projects in the system from the perspective of physical causes and probability statistics. And on the basis of the analysis of the dam break flood, the original design parameters of the reservoir are put forward reasonable. In the aspect of risk quantification and estimation, the reservoir failure risk rate model is used to analyze the failure risk rate of the unit reservoir, and the failure risk rate model of cascade reservoir group system based on Bayesian network is established to quantify the failure risk of each reservoir and its whole in the original design parameters and the proposed design parameters. In the aspect of risk assessment, by calculating the life risk loss of the system in two cases, the risk of the system is evaluated in the acceptable range. Through the construction of the above theoretical system, the research provides support for the full text. (2) analysis of the design parameters of various reservoir engineering grades, flood control standards, and the design flood of each reservoir. It is found that the design flood is calculated according to the area interpolation method based on the design flood results of the hydrologic station. Only according to the design parameters of each reservoir, the weak engineering in the system can not be specified. In order to consider the state of the reservoir from the point of view of the whole basin and the risk of dam break in the upstream reservoir, the downstream reservoir By analyzing the natural geographical features and climatic characteristics of the Dadu River, according to the difference of the main rain area in the valley, two scenarios are divided from Luding to the waterfall gully (A7) and the rainfall dominated by Luding (B7). The maximum possible precipitation of each study reservoir in the Dadu River cascade system is calculated by hydrographic Meteorology (P MP), and converted to the corresponding maximum possible flood (PMF). (3) the weak engineering of the identification system, from the point of view of physical origin, to identify the structural and functional failure states of the system in the two rainfall situations respectively. Two reservoirs with structural and functional failure in the evaluation system of the special reservoir risk standard, the results of the identification of the two angles are compared and analyzed, and the weak engineering in the system is finally determined. Considering the cause of the overtopping of the earth dam, the dam break dam in the calculation system is calculated by the dam break analysis software, and the dam break flood will evolve to the lower reaches. After that, if the reservoir collapse is caused and the state of each reservoir in the system is at this time, the design parameters of the reservoir in the system are put forward reasonably. In the cascade reservoir group system, the weak project is the trigger of the risk source. Once the system occurs, it must ensure the safety of the controlled engineering and make it possible. Enough to share and eliminate the risk caused by the upstream reservoir failure to the system. (4) according to the quantitative evaluation problem of the failure risk of the unit reservoir in the cascade reservoir group system, this paper analyzes the contents of three aspects respectively: the random distribution characteristics of the super standard flood peak sequence of the unit reservoir and the maximum water level sequence of the flood control The random distribution characteristics of the reservoir and the failure risk rate of the unit reservoir. Based on the statistical extreme value theory, the random distribution characteristics of the flood peak flow random distribution characteristics of the cascade reservoirs in Dadu River Basin and the maximum flood water level of each reservoir are studied by checking the flood peak flow, checking the flood water level and the height of the dam as the threshold. The results show that the super standard (super calibration) flood peak flow of the Dadu River Basin and the P-III type curve fit well, which is in line with the distribution law of flood factors in most areas of our country; the maximum water level of the reservoir is fitted well with the logarithm function. (5) the failure probability analysis of the unit reservoir in the cascade reservoir system is based on the ladder. The cascade reservoirs in the reservoir group are divided into three stages according to the different construction period. The failure risk rate of each unit reservoir is calculated by Monte Carlo simulation method. The failure risk rate of each unit in the three stages is compared with the weak project in the identified basin. The results show that, in order to ensure the long-term safety of the river basin, each unit reservoir in the system should be built in the basin according to its impact on the safety of the basin. At the same time, the failure risk rate of each unit reservoir will provide data support for the failure probability of the next chapter of the Bayesian network computing system. (6) due to the cascade system There is also a certain correlation between the various units of the reservoir in the system, and the failure of the various units in the system is a conditional probability event. In view of the outstanding advantages of the Bayesian network in the uncertain knowledge expression and causality reasoning, the failure risk rate analysis of the cascade system based on Bayesian network is established in this paper. The system is divided into Bala double Jiangkou, monkey rock and waterfall gully two sections (D1, D2) according to the control engineering in the basin. The failure risk rate of D1, D2 segment system in the original design parameters and the proposed design parameters is analyzed by Bias network respectively. At the same time, the influence of the state of each unit reservoir on the system is built. The results show that, under different scenarios, the failure probability of the proposed design parameters is significantly lower than that of the original design parameters in the various segments of the system. The failure probability of each section of the system and the failure probability of its controlled engineering are close. The failure risk of cascade reservoirs system is evaluated by two aspects. The results show that the system failure risk of cascade reservoir system in Dadu River Basin is significantly reduced and within acceptable range under the proposed design parameters.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TV697.13
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本文編號：2051887