本文選題：預(yù)報(bào)模型 + 冰情預(yù)報(bào)��； 參考：《人民黃河》2017年01期

【摘要】：寧蒙河段是黃河冰凌災(zāi)害最嚴(yán)重的河段,三湖河口斷面是黃河寧蒙河段防凌防汛的重要控制斷面,也是寧蒙測區(qū)凌情的首發(fā)和頻發(fā)斷面�；邶堁驆{和劉家峽水庫聯(lián)合運(yùn)用以來三湖河口斷面水文、氣象、冰情等資料,研究分析河道形態(tài)、動力條件等對凌情的影響,統(tǒng)計(jì)三湖河口水文斷面冰期氣溫特征值,利用多元線性回歸法建立了冰期預(yù)報(bào)模型。結(jié)果表明:1在目前三湖河口斷面相對穩(wěn)定、上游來水變化不大的情況下,氣溫是影響河道冰凌過程的主要因素;2冰期預(yù)報(bào)模型的預(yù)報(bào)合格率均在70%以上,封河日期預(yù)報(bào)的合格率達(dá)到82%,符合相關(guān)規(guī)范要求。
[Abstract]:The Ningmeng river section is the most serious section of the ice flood disaster in the Yellow River. The section of the three lake estuary is an important control section of the flood prevention and control in the Ningmeng river section of the Yellow River. It is also the first and frequent section of the Ningmeng survey area. Based on the data of the hydrology, meteorology and ice conditions of the three lake estuaries, the river form has been studied and analyzed based on the joint use of the Longyangxia and Liujiaxia Reservoirs. The influence of dynamic conditions on Lingqing, the ice period temperature characteristic value of the hydrology section of the three lake estuary is counted, and the ice age prediction model is established by multiple linear regression method. The results show that the temperature is the main factor of the ice flood in the river channel under the condition that the section of the three lake estuary is relatively stable and the upstream water change is not large, and the forecast model of the 2 ice period is 1. The qualified rate of the forecast is over 70%, and the passing rate of the river closure date is 82%.
【作者單位】： 黃河水利委員會水文局;黃河水利委員會寧蒙水文水資源局;
【分類號】：TV875;TV124

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本文編號：2050164