本文選題：濱海地區(qū) + 水庫(kù)供水預(yù)警　； 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：水是生命之源、生產(chǎn)之要、生態(tài)之基,既不可或缺,又無(wú)以替代。進(jìn)入21世紀(jì),隨著人口的增加、城市的擴(kuò)張和錯(cuò)誤的水資源開(kāi)發(fā)利用觀念,水資源問(wèn)題日益嚴(yán)重,已經(jīng)成為制約國(guó)家和地區(qū)發(fā)展的瓶頸。在我國(guó),尤其是在山東濱海地區(qū),水資源問(wèn)題尤其突出。 濱海地區(qū)是山東省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的核心區(qū)域,在濱海地區(qū)做好水利發(fā)展專(zhuān)項(xiàng)規(guī)劃,可以有效的緩解水資源短缺現(xiàn)狀,有利于提高水資源和水環(huán)境的承載能力,有利于社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,有利于促進(jìn)水資源的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 本文在閱讀了大量文獻(xiàn)和總結(jié)分析當(dāng)前的成果的基礎(chǔ)上,基于“三條紅線”用水總量控制紅線,率先在山東濱海地區(qū)(即半島藍(lán)色經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū))展開(kāi)了地表水(即水庫(kù))供水預(yù)警研究,并以乳山市的四座大中型水庫(kù)為例,驗(yàn)證了地表水供水預(yù)警的可行性。本文主要完成以下工作： (1)建立了水庫(kù)供水預(yù)警體系,科學(xué)確定了警戒線與警戒區(qū)。 以最嚴(yán)格水資源管理為理論基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合用戶需水、水庫(kù)可供水量和水庫(kù)主要供水用途等實(shí)際情況,依據(jù)劃分警戒線與警戒區(qū)的基本原則,建立水庫(kù)供水預(yù)警機(jī)制,分別在給出了中型水庫(kù)預(yù)警期為三個(gè)月和非汛期兩種情況下點(diǎn)預(yù)警和過(guò)程預(yù)警的警戒線確定方法,劃分出警戒區(qū)域。針對(duì)大型水庫(kù)多年調(diào)節(jié)的特點(diǎn),本文在中型水庫(kù)三個(gè)月、非汛期預(yù)警期的基礎(chǔ)上,將預(yù)警期延長(zhǎng)為一年,給出了警戒線的確定辦法,并引入了模糊概念中“亦此亦彼”的概念,利用相對(duì)隸屬度模型對(duì)預(yù)警級(jí)別進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià),體現(xiàn)出預(yù)警程度的漸變性。 (2)選擇了工程實(shí)例作為研究對(duì)象,驗(yàn)證了水庫(kù)供水預(yù)警的可行性。 在對(duì)乳山市4座大中型水庫(kù)多年水文資料進(jìn)行整理的基礎(chǔ)上,將理論成果應(yīng)用于4座水庫(kù),根據(jù)是否考慮非汛期來(lái)水,對(duì)水庫(kù)進(jìn)行了靜態(tài)和動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)警,又根據(jù)選取計(jì)算預(yù)警起點(diǎn)的不同,對(duì)水庫(kù)進(jìn)行了點(diǎn)預(yù)警和過(guò)程預(yù)警,為水庫(kù)供水的合理調(diào)度提供參考,對(duì)保障城鄉(xiāng)居民生活、工農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)和生態(tài)用水安全具有重要意義。 (3)預(yù)警管理能有效緩解水資源短缺現(xiàn)狀,使有限的水資源發(fā)揮了更大的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益、社會(huì)效益和生態(tài)效益。 預(yù)警管理中,針對(duì)水庫(kù)蓄水量、用水戶用水量及來(lái)水量的變化情況不斷調(diào)整供水策略,使水資源的利用更加科學(xué)合理；尤其以兩年為預(yù)警期時(shí),有預(yù)見(jiàn)性的對(duì)水量進(jìn)行調(diào)度,能有效的緩解枯水年的用水壓力,緩解了水資源短缺問(wèn)題,使有限的水資源實(shí)現(xiàn)利益最大化。 (4)由于預(yù)警問(wèn)題比較復(fù)雜,仍有幾個(gè)問(wèn)題需要繼續(xù)深入。 當(dāng)區(qū)域降水不均勻時(shí),可能出現(xiàn)部分水庫(kù)供水量大于需水量、部分水庫(kù)需水量大于供水量的情況,需要建立水庫(kù)之間的聯(lián)系,進(jìn)行聯(lián)合調(diào)度；水庫(kù)供水涉及城鄉(xiāng)居民生活、工業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)和生態(tài)等諸多領(lǐng)域,關(guān)系到經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、社會(huì)穩(wěn)定和可持續(xù)發(fā)展問(wèn)題,需要建立多學(xué)科間的連接,尋求更具代表性的綜合指標(biāo)。
[Abstract]:Water is the source of life, production, ecological basis, both indispensable and irreplaceable. In the 21st century, with the increase of population, the expansion of cities and the wrong concept of water resources exploitation and utilization, the problem of water resources is becoming more and more serious, which has become the bottleneck restricting the development of countries and regions. In our country, especially in the coastal area of Shandong Province, the problem of water resources is especially prominent. Binhai area is the core area of economic development in Shandong Province. Making special plans for water conservancy development in coastal areas can effectively alleviate the current situation of water resources shortage and help to improve the carrying capacity of water resources and water environment. It is beneficial to the coordinated development of society and economy and to the sustainable development of water resources. On the basis of reading a large number of documents and summarizing and analyzing the current results, this paper based on the "three red lines" to control the total amount of water red line, The early warning study of surface water supply was carried out in the coastal area of Shandong Province (i.e. Peninsula Blue Economic Zone), and the feasibility of surface water supply warning was verified by taking four large and medium-sized reservoirs in Rushan City as an example. The main work of this paper is as follows: 1) the early warning system of reservoir water supply has been established, and the warning line and warning area have been scientifically determined. Based on the theory of the strictest management of water resources, combined with the actual conditions such as the user's water demand, the water supply capacity of the reservoir and the main water supply uses of the reservoir, and according to the basic principle of dividing the warning line and the warning area, the early warning mechanism of the reservoir water supply is established. In this paper, the methods of determining the warning line of point early warning and process early warning are given respectively under the condition that the early warning period is three months and the non flood period is two kinds of conditions, and the warning area is divided. In view of the characteristics of the regulation of large reservoirs for many years, this paper extends the early warning period to one year on the basis of the three-month, non-flood season early warning period of medium-sized reservoirs, and gives the method of determining the warning line, and introduces the concept of "also this and that" in the fuzzy concept. The relative membership degree model is used to evaluate the early warning level, which reflects the gradual change of the early warning degree. The engineering example is selected as the research object, which verifies the feasibility of the reservoir water supply early warning. Based on the analysis of hydrological data of 4 large and medium-sized reservoirs in Rushan City, the theoretical results are applied to 4 reservoirs. According to whether to consider the non-flood season water, the static and dynamic early warning of the reservoirs is carried out. According to the difference of calculating the starting point of early warning, this paper carries on the point early warning and the process early warning to the reservoir, which provides the reference for the reasonable operation of the reservoir water supply and ensures the life of the urban and rural residents. Industrial and agricultural production and ecological water security are of great significance. Early warning management can effectively alleviate the current situation of water resources shortage, and make limited water resources play a greater economic, social and ecological benefits. In early warning management, according to the change of water consumption and water quantity, the water supply strategy is constantly adjusted to make the utilization of water resources more scientific and reasonable, especially when the early warning period is two years, the quantity of water is scheduled to be controlled with foresight. It can effectively alleviate the pressure of water use in dry years, alleviate the shortage of water resources and maximize the benefits of limited water resources. (4) due to the complexity of early warning problems, there are still several problems that need to be deepened. When regional precipitation is not uniform, some reservoirs may have water supply greater than water demand, and some reservoirs water demand is greater than water supply, so it is necessary to establish connections between reservoirs and carry out joint operation; reservoir water supply involves the life of urban and rural residents. Many fields, such as industry, agriculture and ecology, are related to economic development, social stability and sustainable development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TV213.4;TV697

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