本文選題：需水預(yù)測 + 水資源配置模型　； 參考：《中國水利水電科學(xué)研究院》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：由于水資源供需矛盾的升級,其競爭性也日益凸顯,地區(qū)間與行業(yè)間的合理配置成為水資源工作者的重要任務(wù),此項(xiàng)工作不僅會(huì)影響國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,還對保證社會(huì)公平性有較強(qiáng)的意義。水資源分配工作主要分為兩大方面,一是對本地區(qū)未來的用水規(guī)模和用水特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行分析預(yù)測,這是后續(xù)工作的基礎(chǔ),二是通過設(shè)置合理的規(guī)則,遵循一定的原則,對本地區(qū)的水源進(jìn)行配置計(jì)算。隨著信息技術(shù)的發(fā)展,我國對需水預(yù)測和水資源配置的研究從理論到實(shí)踐都取得了豐碩的成果。南水北調(diào)工程實(shí)施后,為對河北省受水區(qū)內(nèi)未來的水資源配置情況進(jìn)行模擬計(jì)算,以設(shè)置更加合理的分水規(guī)則,本文針對此地區(qū)的特點(diǎn),分別進(jìn)行了需水預(yù)測工作和水資源配置模型的建立。本文將需水部門分為六類,在對其歷史數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行規(guī)律分析的基礎(chǔ)上,分別采用不同的預(yù)測方法進(jìn)行計(jì)算。對于城鎮(zhèn)生活用水和農(nóng)村生活用水,采用用水定額預(yù)測與人口規(guī)模預(yù)測相結(jié)合的方法；工業(yè)用水預(yù)測是先用改進(jìn)的數(shù)學(xué)模型進(jìn)行萬元工業(yè)增加值取水量的預(yù)測,然后依據(jù)本地區(qū)的工業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)劃,預(yù)測工業(yè)增加值,最后二者相乘得到工業(yè)需水量：農(nóng)業(yè)需水預(yù)測是在提取本地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)需水量主要影響因素后,綜合考慮自然和人為因素建立預(yù)測模型；城鎮(zhèn)生態(tài)需水和農(nóng)村生態(tài)需水則是根據(jù)地區(qū)規(guī)劃、綠地用水定額和面積等計(jì)算。各項(xiàng)需水預(yù)測工作所采用的模型均經(jīng)過本地歷史數(shù)據(jù)的檢驗(yàn),具有較高的可靠性。最終,預(yù)測2030年河北省受水區(qū)內(nèi)總需水量約為156億m3,比重最高的農(nóng)業(yè)需水占63%,其次為工業(yè)用水,占18%,用水結(jié)構(gòu)與現(xiàn)狀年相比有很大變化。在認(rèn)真學(xué)習(xí)和總結(jié)前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,本文建立了通用性水資源配置模擬模型,采用統(tǒng)一的單元存儲(chǔ)格式、二維矩陣表示單元關(guān)系等方法提高模型使用的便利性。模型對水庫、用水單元和分水節(jié)點(diǎn)分別采用不同的計(jì)算程序,由參數(shù)來體現(xiàn)決策對水量分配的作用,其中水庫供水不再采用輸入的規(guī)則而是用可供水量與下游需水相結(jié)合的算法供水,提高了水庫供水的合理性。針對受水區(qū)地下水超采嚴(yán)重的特點(diǎn),本文主要以外調(diào)水和地下水的供水關(guān)系為重點(diǎn),對不同的水平年,設(shè)置多個(gè)計(jì)算方案,對各方案結(jié)果進(jìn)行對比分析。綜合考慮生態(tài)保護(hù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,推薦地下水與外調(diào)水聯(lián)合供水方案,其中地下水僅以其可供水量為最大供水能力,完全不超采,外調(diào)水以其最大調(diào)水量供水,模擬結(jié)果表明,在此方案下,2030年受水區(qū)基本達(dá)到供需平衡,缺水率僅為5%左右。本文還對推薦方案下主要水庫的供水情況進(jìn)行了介紹,以供水庫管理參考。實(shí)踐表明,該模型操作方便,輸出數(shù)據(jù)詳細(xì),結(jié)果清晰,計(jì)算合理,具有較高的實(shí)用價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:Due to the upgrading of the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources, its competition is becoming increasingly prominent. The rational allocation between regions and industries has become an important task for water resources workers. This work will not only affect the development of the national economy. It is also of great significance to ensure social fairness. The distribution of water resources is mainly divided into two aspects. One is to analyze and predict the scale and characteristics of water use in the future in the region, which is the basis of the follow-up work, and the other is to follow certain principles by setting up reasonable rules. The allocation of water sources in this area is calculated. With the development of information technology, the research on water demand prediction and water resources allocation in China has made great achievements both in theory and practice. After the implementation of the South-to-North Water transfer Project, in order to simulate and calculate the future allocation of water resources in Hebei Province, in order to set up more reasonable water distribution rules, this paper aims at the characteristics of this area. The prediction of water demand and the establishment of water resources allocation model were carried out respectively. In this paper, water demand departments are divided into six categories. Based on the analysis of their historical data, different forecasting methods are used to calculate them. For urban and rural domestic water, the method of combining water quota prediction with population scale prediction is adopted, and industrial water consumption prediction is based on an improved mathematical model to predict the water intake of ten thousand yuan of industrial added value. Then according to the industrial development plan of the region, the industrial added value is forecasted. Finally, the industrial water demand is obtained by multiplying the two. The agricultural water demand prediction is after extracting the main influencing factors of the agricultural water demand in this area. A prediction model was established considering both natural and human factors, while the ecological water requirement of urban and rural areas was calculated according to regional planning, green land water quota and area. The models used in water demand prediction are verified by local historical data and have high reliability. Finally, it is predicted that the total water demand in Hebei Province will be about 15.6 billion m3 in 2030. The agricultural water demand with the highest proportion is 63, followed by industrial water consumption, accounting for 18 percent. The water use structure has a great change compared with the current year. On the basis of studying and summing up the previous research results, a universal water resources allocation simulation model is established in this paper, which uses a unified cell storage format and a two-dimensional matrix to express the unit relationship, and so on to improve the convenience of using the model. The model uses different calculation programs for reservoir, water unit and water diversion node, and the parameters are used to reflect the effect of decision on water distribution. The rationality of reservoir water supply is improved by using the algorithm of combining the available water supply and the downstream water demand instead of using the input rules for the reservoir water supply. In view of the serious overexploitation of groundwater in the receiving area, this paper focuses on the relationship between the transfer of water and the water supply of groundwater, sets up several calculation schemes for different level years, and makes a comparative analysis of the results of each scheme. Considering the ecological protection and economic development, the combined water supply scheme of groundwater and external water transfer is recommended, in which the maximum water supply capacity of groundwater is only its available water supply, and it is not overtaken completely, and the water supply by external transfer water is supplied by its maximum amount of water transfer. The simulation results show that, Under this scheme, the supply and demand balance was basically achieved in the water-receiving area in 2030, and the water shortage rate was only about 5%. This paper also introduces the water supply of the main reservoir under the recommended scheme for the reference of reservoir management. The practice shows that the model is easy to operate, the output data is detailed, the results are clear, the calculation is reasonable, and the model is of high practical value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國水利水電科學(xué)研究院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TV213.4

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本文編號：1986728