本文選題：寒旱區(qū) + 流域��； 參考：《內蒙古農業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：草原河流作為孕育草原生命的搖籃,是維系草原流域水源供給和生態(tài)環(huán)境最重要的紐帶,也是制約草原流域社會經濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展的決定性因素。鑒于寒旱區(qū)草原特有的季節(jié)性和地區(qū)性特色,春季融雪產生的較強徑流與夏季降水會形成明顯的雙.峰型地表徑流特征。降水與融雪水是影響該區(qū)地表水文特征的主要水文要素,控制著土壤水分的變化,季節(jié)性凍土的形成也使得區(qū)域水文過程發(fā)生改變。近年來,由于受到全球氣候變化、降水時空分布不均、人口增長及社會經濟快速發(fā)展等因素的影響,寒旱區(qū)草原水資源供需矛盾日益劇烈,草原流域水資源的短缺已經成為限制草原流域可持續(xù)發(fā)展的關鍵障礙。因此,如何運用科學手段構建健康的草原流域水資源利用模式,已經受到社會各界的高度關注。 本文以我國北方寒旱區(qū)草原中典型流域—錫林河流域為研究對象,結合我國北方寒旱區(qū)草原型河流流域的氣候特點、下墊面條件及水文過程的特殊性,針對錫林河流域發(fā)生季節(jié)性凍土現(xiàn)象下的降水—徑流特點,通過利用錫林河水文站的年徑流頻率曲線,采用一定保證率條件下的年徑流量作為劃分流域豐平枯水年的標準,對錫林河流域歷史水文年進行劃分�；诖嘶A,應用統(tǒng)計分析方法對降水、徑流進行統(tǒng)計分析,揭示降水、徑流年內分配特點及季節(jié)性凍土條件下降水-徑流特征,以ARCSWAT2012為操作平臺,應用地理統(tǒng)計分析方法,對模型建立過程中所需的各數據庫進行基礎數據整備與參數化,分析影響模型徑流模擬精度的主要參數,進行模型的參數率定與結果精度評價,分別對錫林河流域各豐、平、枯水年進行徑流模擬,并對其結果進行了檢驗,提出SWAT模型應用于我國寒旱區(qū)草原的可行性及對寒旱區(qū)草原流域未來水資源模擬的模型改進建議,從模型在率定期與驗證期的模擬結果可以看出SWAT模型對錫林河流域積雪與融雪徑流過程模擬符合要求,率定期模型的相關R2為0.79,納什系數Ene為0.76；驗證期時,R2為0.61,Ene為0.53。顯然,SWAT模型在中國北方寒旱區(qū)的可操作性。結果表明：SWAT模型對細化流域降水-徑流分配的徑流模擬具有不同的精度,即平水年偏豐水年豐水年偏枯水年枯水年,體現(xiàn)出SWAT模型在中國北方寒旱區(qū)豐水年和平水年具有較好的可操作性。
[Abstract]:As the cradle of grassland life, steppe river is the most important link to maintain the water supply and ecological environment in the grassland basin, and it is also the decisive factor that restricts the sustainable development of social economy in the grassland basin. In view of the special seasonal and regional characteristics of the steppe in cold and arid regions, the strong runoff produced by the melting snow in spring and the precipitation in summer will form obvious double. Peak type surface runoff characteristics. Precipitation and snowmelt water are the main hydrological factors that affect the surface hydrological characteristics in this area, which control the change of soil moisture, and the formation of seasonal frozen soil also changes the regional hydrological process. In recent years, due to the influence of global climate change, uneven spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, population growth and rapid social and economic development, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in steppe in cold and arid regions has become increasingly acute. The shortage of water resources in grassland basin has become the key obstacle to restrict the sustainable development of grassland basin. Therefore, how to use scientific means to construct a healthy model of water resources utilization in steppe basins has been highly concerned by all walks of life. This paper takes the Xilin River Basin, a typical watershed in the steppe in the cold and arid region of northern China, as the research object, combining with the climatic characteristics of the steppe river basin in the northern cold and arid region of China, the conditions of the underlying surface and the particularity of the hydrological process. In view of the characteristics of precipitation and runoff in Xilin River Basin under seasonal frozen soil phenomenon, by using the annual runoff frequency curve of Xilin River hydrologic station, the annual runoff under certain guarantee rate is used as the criterion for dividing the year of abundant and dry water in the basin. The historical hydrological years of the Xilin River Basin are divided. Based on this, the statistical analysis of precipitation and runoff is carried out to reveal the characteristics of precipitation and runoff distribution in the year and the characteristics of precipitation and runoff in seasonal frozen soil. Based on ARCSWAT2012, the method of geographic statistical analysis is applied. The basic data and parameterization of each database needed in the process of establishing the model are carried out, and the main parameters that affect the accuracy of the model runoff simulation are analyzed, and the parameter rate of the model and the accuracy of the result are evaluated, respectively, for each abundance and level of the Xilin River Basin. Runoff simulation was carried out in dry years and the results were tested. The feasibility of applying SWAT model to steppe in cold and arid regions of China and suggestions for improving the model for future water resources simulation of steppe basins in cold and arid regions were put forward. From the simulation results of rate periodic and verification period, it can be seen that SWAT model meets the requirements for simulation of snow cover and snowmelt runoff process in Xilin River Basin. The correlation R2 of the rate periodic model is 0.79, the Nash coefficient Ene is 0.76, and the R2 is 0.61g Ene 0.53 in the validation period. It is obvious that the SWAT model is feasible in the cold and arid regions of northern China. The results show that the ratio SWAT model has different accuracy for the runoff simulation of precipitation and runoff distribution in the watershed, that is, the average water year is more abundant than the dry one. It shows that the SWAT model is feasible in the years of abundant water and plain water in the cold and arid regions of northern China.
【學位授予單位】：內蒙古農業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV121.6

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