本文選題：好水川流域 + 地表徑流��； 參考：《寧夏大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：水資源是人類(lèi)賴(lài)以生存和發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)和戰(zhàn)略性資源,水資源評(píng)價(jià)是水資源活動(dòng)與管理中一項(xiàng)十分必要和重要的任務(wù),也是流域水資源高效利用、科學(xué)配置及可持續(xù)利用的基礎(chǔ)。 隨著氣候與下墊面條件的變化,流域水資源的演變規(guī)律也隨之發(fā)生了改變。寧南山區(qū)所處的六盤(pán)山地區(qū),是黃土高原唯一的綠島和天然氧吧,更是黃土高原地區(qū)氣候變化最為敏感和強(qiáng)度的區(qū)域。本論文選擇位于寧南山區(qū)的寧夏隆德縣好水川流域?yàn)檠芯繀^(qū)域,通過(guò)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)調(diào)查、資料分析、定位觀測(cè)、方法對(duì)降水及土地利用變化下的流域地表水資源進(jìn)行了模擬及預(yù)報(bào),主要內(nèi)容分為五部分。 第一部分為研究區(qū)概況的分析。通過(guò)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)調(diào)研及資料收集與分析,對(duì)流域的自然地理、水文氣象、土地利用、水土流失、水資源開(kāi)發(fā)利用、相關(guān)工程運(yùn)行等狀況進(jìn)行了分析與闡述,并凝練總結(jié)了流域水資源開(kāi)發(fā)利用中存在的問(wèn)題。 第二部分為降水資源的評(píng)價(jià)與時(shí)空預(yù)報(bào)。分析了研究區(qū)降水年內(nèi)年際分布、變化趨勢(shì)、豐枯狀況等規(guī)律。選擇了1951-2010年降水觀測(cè)資料,結(jié)合馬爾科夫與周期外延疊加預(yù)報(bào)方法,對(duì)流域汛期降水量進(jìn)行了預(yù)報(bào)并繪制了降水量等值線(xiàn)圖,定量分析了汛期降水量的空間分布規(guī)律。 第三部分為流域徑流轉(zhuǎn)化機(jī)理分析。通過(guò)流域降水及包氣帶特性分析,確定流域?qū)俪瑵B產(chǎn)流模式,產(chǎn)流類(lèi)型為超滲地面徑流類(lèi)型,影響因素為降雨量、降雨強(qiáng)度及土壤初始含水量。 第四部分為降水及土地利用變化下的流域地表徑流模擬分析。在分布式的數(shù)字流域模型構(gòu)建基礎(chǔ)上,選擇了具有物理基礎(chǔ)、符合超滲產(chǎn)流模式的CASC2D模型進(jìn)行了相關(guān)參數(shù)的率定與地表徑流的模擬。通過(guò)設(shè)計(jì)不同的降雨條件與土地利用方式,定性分析降雨及土地利用變化對(duì)地表徑流的影響,為流域的水資源及土地利用規(guī)劃提供指導(dǎo)和依據(jù)。 第五部分為基于降水等級(jí)分析的地表徑流預(yù)報(bào)。選擇了適用于流域的SCS集總式模型,結(jié)合降水預(yù)報(bào)成果,建立了適用于本地區(qū)的、形象直觀的地表徑流預(yù)報(bào)模型,為流域地表水資源趨勢(shì)分析與研究提供基礎(chǔ)依據(jù)。 在以上模擬研究基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了壩庫(kù)功能轉(zhuǎn)換的理論與技術(shù)體系并建立了壩庫(kù)功能定位劃分指標(biāo),對(duì)有必要和條件的工程進(jìn)行功能轉(zhuǎn)換,從而提高區(qū)域水資源可利用量,為壩系水資源高效利用提供指導(dǎo)。
[Abstract]:Water resources are the basis and strategic resources for human survival and development. Water resources evaluation is a very necessary and important task in water resources activities and management, and it is also the basis of efficient utilization, scientific allocation and sustainable utilization of water resources in river basins. With the change of climate and underlying conditions, the evolution of water resources in the basin has also changed. The Liupanshan area in southern Ningxia is the only green island and natural oxygen bar in the Loess Plateau, and is also the most sensitive and intensive area of climate change in the Loess Plateau. In this paper, the Haoshui River Basin of Longde County, Ningxia, which is located in the mountainous area of southern Ningxia, is selected as the study area. The surface water resources of the watershed under the change of precipitation and land use are simulated and forecasted by field investigation, data analysis and location observation. The main content is divided into five parts. The first part is the analysis of the general situation of the research area. Through field investigation and data collection and analysis, this paper analyzes and expounds the natural geography, hydrometeorology, land use, soil erosion, water resources development and utilization, and the operation of related projects, etc. The problems existing in the exploitation and utilization of water resources in the river basin are summarized. The second part is the evaluation and time-space forecast of precipitation resources. The interannual distribution, variation trend, abundance and withered state of precipitation in the study area were analyzed. Based on the observational data of precipitation from 1951 to 2010 and combined with the method of Markov and periodic extension superposition, the precipitation in flood season of the basin is forecasted and the contour map of precipitation is drawn, and the spatial distribution of precipitation in flood season is quantitatively analyzed. The third part is the analysis of runoff transformation mechanism. Through the analysis of the characteristics of precipitation and aeration zone in the basin, it is determined that the watershed belongs to the model of superosmotic runoff, the type of runoff is the type of surface runoff, and the influencing factors are rainfall, rainfall intensity and initial water content of soil. The fourth part is the surface runoff simulation analysis under precipitation and land use change. Based on the construction of distributed digital watershed model, the CASC2D model with physical foundation and superosmotic runoff model was selected to simulate the rate of related parameters and surface runoff. Through the design of different rainfall conditions and land use patterns, the effects of rainfall and land use change on surface runoff are analyzed qualitatively, which provides guidance and basis for water resources and land use planning. The fifth part is the surface runoff forecast based on precipitation grade analysis. The SCS lumped model, which is suitable for river basin, is selected. Combined with the results of precipitation forecast, the surface runoff forecasting model suitable for this area is established, which provides the basis for the analysis and research of the surface water resources trend in the basin. On the basis of the above simulation research, the theoretical and technical system of dam and reservoir function conversion is constructed, and the index of location and division of dam and reservoir function is established. The function conversion of necessary and conditional projects is carried out so as to increase the available quantity of regional water resources. It provides guidance for efficient utilization of water resources in dam system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧夏大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TV213.4

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