本文選題：徑流模擬 + 土地利用變化　； 參考：《山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：水是人類生存和發(fā)展必不可少的自然資源,其在社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中扮演者重要的角色,人們依水生存和發(fā)展。但是隨著人口增加、人類生活水平提高和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,人類對水資源的需求量越來越多,與此同時河湖等水體污染日益嚴(yán)重,使可用水資源量持續(xù)下降,進而更加劇了人類與水資源的矛盾,結(jié)果是直接影響到了水資源的可持續(xù)利用。 水生態(tài)文明建設(shè)是一系列龐大而復(fù)雜的工程,面對生態(tài)文明建設(shè)的需求與新時期水利的改革發(fā)展,需要解決一些新的基礎(chǔ)科學(xué)問題。河湖生態(tài)健康評價方法理論即是水生態(tài)文明建設(shè)的一個基礎(chǔ)科學(xué)問題,然而現(xiàn)階段河湖生態(tài)健康評價方法理論很多停留在定性分析上,量值的評價比較少。分布式水文模型SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)是1994年由美國農(nóng)業(yè)部(USDA)農(nóng)業(yè)研究中心開發(fā)的流域水文模型。該模型具有很強物理機制,可以模擬較大范圍復(fù)雜流域內(nèi)的水文過程來預(yù)測流域產(chǎn)水、產(chǎn)沙和水環(huán)境污染等過程對氣候、管理措施、土地利用等的響應(yīng)。藥鄉(xiāng)小流域位于山東省泰安市城市水源地黃前流域,是泰山區(qū)域的典型小流域。本文選擇SWAT模型來模擬藥鄉(xiāng)小流域的徑流情況,分析了該模型在藥鄉(xiāng)小流域的適應(yīng)性,同時定量分析了人類影響該小流域的生態(tài)情況下的徑流變化情況,其主要研究內(nèi)容有： (1)總結(jié)了SWAT模型的國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀,簡要介紹了SWAT模型的發(fā)展、原理和結(jié)構(gòu)。 (2)以國家林業(yè)局“泰山森林生態(tài)定位研究站”較全面系統(tǒng)觀測的藥鄉(xiāng)小流域為研究對象,利用SWAT模型結(jié)合該流域的數(shù)字高程圖、土地利用圖、土壤圖、土地利用數(shù)據(jù)、土壤數(shù)據(jù)、氣象數(shù)據(jù)與徑流數(shù)據(jù)等建立了適合該小流域的分布式水文模型。 (3)對藥鄉(xiāng)小流域進行月平均流量模擬,采用納西系數(shù)作為模型精準(zhǔn)度評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn),并分析了模擬值與實測值的相關(guān)性,取得了較好的模擬效果。結(jié)果表明,SWAT模型適用于藥鄉(xiāng)小流域的徑流模擬。 (4)確定SCS徑流曲線系數(shù)(CN2)、土壤蒸發(fā)補償系數(shù)(ESCO)、基流α系數(shù)(ALPHA_BF)、土壤可利用水量(SOL_AWC)、淺層地下水徑(GWQMN)和飽和水力傳導(dǎo)系數(shù)(SOL_K)等是該小流域?qū)搅饔绊戄^大的SWAT模型參數(shù),合理調(diào)整這些參數(shù),使模型具有更高的模擬精度。 (5)通過設(shè)定8種人類影響土地利用的情景,得出藥鄉(xiāng)小流域出口處總徑流量的變化情況,以反映人類影響下的該小流域徑流的變化規(guī)律,進而定量反映出該小流域的生態(tài)健康變化趨勢。 通過本文研究內(nèi)容以期為泰山的近似小流域生態(tài)健康評價提供一定的依據(jù),同時也為藥鄉(xiāng)小流域的水資源管理、生態(tài)建設(shè)和保護提供依據(jù),以促進山東省的水生態(tài)文明建設(shè)。
[Abstract]:Water is an essential natural resource for human survival and development, which plays an important role in social and economic development. However, with the increase of population, the improvement of human living standard and the development of economy, the demand for water resources is increasing. At the same time, the pollution of rivers, lakes and other water bodies is becoming more and more serious, which makes the quantity of available water resources continue to decline. Furthermore, the contradiction between human beings and water resources is aggravated, and the sustainable utilization of water resources is directly affected. The construction of water ecological civilization is a series of huge and complex projects. In the face of the demands of ecological civilization construction and the reform and development of water conservancy in the new period, some new basic scientific problems need to be solved. The theory of river and lake ecological health evaluation method is a basic scientific problem in the construction of water ecological civilization. However, at present, many theories of river and lake ecological health evaluation method remain on the qualitative analysis, and the evaluation of quantity is relatively few. The distributed hydrological model SWAT and Water Assessment Tool) is a watershed hydrological model developed by USDA-Agricultural Research Center of USDA in 1994. The model has a strong physical mechanism and can simulate the hydrological processes in a large complex watershed to predict the response of the processes of water production sediment production and water environment pollution to climate management measures and land use. Yaoxiang small watershed is a typical small watershed in Mount Tai area, which is located in Huangqian basin, the urban water source of Taian City, Shandong Province. In this paper, the SWAT model is chosen to simulate the runoff situation of the Yanchang small watershed, and the adaptability of the model is analyzed. At the same time, the runoff variation under the ecological condition of human being affecting the small watershed is quantitatively analyzed. The main research contents are as follows: 1) the research status of SWAT model at home and abroad is summarized, and the development, principle and structure of SWAT model are briefly introduced. (2) taking the Yaoxiang small watershed, which was observed systematically by Taishan Forest Ecological location Research Station of State Forestry Administration, as the research object, using SWAT model to combine the digital elevation map, land use map, soil map and land use data of the watershed. Soil data, meteorological data and runoff data were used to establish a distributed hydrological model for the small watershed. The Naxi coefficient is used as the evaluation criterion of the model accuracy, and the correlation between the simulated value and the measured value is analyzed, and a good simulation result is obtained. The results show that the SWAT model is suitable for runoff simulation of Yaoxiang small watershed. (4) determination of SCS runoff curve coefficient (CN2N), soil evaporation compensation coefficient (Esco), base flow 偽 coefficient (ALPHABFN), soil water availability (SOLQMN), shallow groundwater diameter (GWQMN) and saturated hydraulic conductivity coefficient (SOLK) are the parameters of SWAT model which have a great influence on runoff in this small watershed. By adjusting these parameters reasonably, the model has higher simulation accuracy. 5) by setting up 8 scenarios of human influence on land use, the change of total runoff at the outlet of Yaoxiang small watershed is obtained to reflect the change law of runoff in this small watershed under the influence of human being. Furthermore, the change trend of ecological health in this small watershed is reflected quantitatively. The purpose of this paper is to provide some basis for the assessment of ecological health in the approximate small watershed of Mount Tai, and also for the management, ecological construction and protection of water resources in Yaoxiang small watershed, in order to promote the construction of water ecological civilization in Shandong Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV121

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