本文選題：軍塘湖 + 融雪洪水　； 參考：《中國農(nóng)村水利水電》2017年05期

【摘要】：山區(qū)融雪洪水流量過程因洪水成因不同而異,但又表現(xiàn)出自身的規(guī)律性。將洪水產(chǎn)流類型分為若干類能夠更好的掌握洪水機理和進行洪水預(yù)報。運用熵權(quán)確定影響因素的權(quán)重,并利用模糊C均值聚類模式識別分類方法得出洪水樣本的自然分類。實驗區(qū)位于新疆天山北坡山區(qū)地帶的軍塘湖流域。選取了12場洪水過程的觀測資料,借助試驗區(qū)架設(shè)的自動氣象觀測站的氣象資料,積雪樣方觀測資料,將洪水的產(chǎn)流類型分為:超滲產(chǎn)流型,超滲蓄產(chǎn)流型,蓄滿產(chǎn)流型。研究表明:(1)熵權(quán)能夠有效地對影響洪水的各要素賦權(quán),從而讓模糊C均值聚類分析能夠區(qū)分每個洪水樣本的類型。(2)該方法能夠準確、迅速的判斷洪水產(chǎn)流類型,能有效地提高洪水預(yù)報精度。開展融雪洪水過程線分類研究,對于融雪洪水預(yù)報與預(yù)警有重要的理論和實際意義。
[Abstract]:The flow process of snowmelt flood in mountainous area varies with the cause of flood, but it also shows its own regularity. The flood mechanism and flood forecast can be better understood by classifying flood runoff types into several types. The weight of influencing factors is determined by entropy weight, and the natural classification of flood samples is obtained by using fuzzy C-means clustering pattern recognition and classification method. The experimental area is located in the Juntang Lake basin on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain, Xinjiang. Based on the observation data of 12 flood processes and the meteorological data of the automatic meteorological observation station set up in the experimental area and the snow sample observation data, the runoff generation types of the flood are divided into three types: the superosmotic runoff generation type, the superosmotic storage current generation type and the full production flow type. The research shows that the entropy weight can effectively weight the factors that affect the flood, so that the fuzzy C-means clustering analysis can distinguish the type of each flood sample. 2) this method can accurately and quickly judge the flood runoff type. It can effectively improve the accuracy of flood forecast. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the classification of snowmelt flood process line for forecast and early warning of snowmelt flood.
【作者單位】： 新疆大學(xué)資源與環(huán)境科學(xué)學(xué)院;新疆大學(xué)干旱生態(tài)環(huán)境研究所;新疆大學(xué)綠洲生態(tài)教育部重點實驗室;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金面上項目“天山北坡典型流域積雪-凍土水熱耦合中融水產(chǎn)流機制研究”(41171023)
【分類號】：P333.2;TV122

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