本文選題：非一致性 + 下墊面變化�。� 參考：《天津大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：大清河流域由于興建大量防洪和水保工程，導(dǎo)致流域下墊面發(fā)生顯著變化，實(shí)測(cè)水文序列（洪水、徑流等）不再滿足一致性假定，基于傳統(tǒng)的水文頻率分析法在下墊面變化條件下得到的設(shè)計(jì)成果應(yīng)用到工程水文設(shè)計(jì)中存在一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。為研究下墊面變化對(duì)設(shè)計(jì)洪水及水庫(kù)調(diào)洪的影響，探討下墊面變化條件下水庫(kù)設(shè)計(jì)洪水的推求及調(diào)洪計(jì)算等問(wèn)題，本文以大清河南支沙河上游王快水庫(kù)為例，采用概率論與數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)方法直接對(duì)水庫(kù)非一致性洪水序列進(jìn)行頻率分析計(jì)算；基于非一致性洪水序列設(shè)計(jì)值推求了下墊面變化條件下水庫(kù)的設(shè)計(jì)洪水，并進(jìn)行水庫(kù)調(diào)洪計(jì)算，給出了下墊面變化對(duì)水庫(kù)設(shè)計(jì)洪水及水庫(kù)調(diào)洪的定量影響，以期為下墊面變化條件下大清河流域設(shè)計(jì)洪水的修訂及防洪調(diào)度提供技術(shù)支撐。主要研究?jī)?nèi)容與成果如下： （1）基于傳統(tǒng)的水文序列變異診斷理論，提出了非一致性水文序列變異點(diǎn)綜合診斷方法，分為初步診斷、詳細(xì)診斷、綜合診斷三個(gè)步驟。其中，在詳細(xì)診斷中，提出了基于MWP檢定的水文序列變異區(qū)間診斷方法，該法結(jié)合其他方法的診斷結(jié)論，可方便確認(rèn)變異點(diǎn)的具體位置。通過(guò)對(duì)王快水庫(kù)各洪水序列進(jìn)行變異點(diǎn)綜合診斷，表明各序列均發(fā)生變異，變異點(diǎn)均為1979年。 （2）采用混合分布及條件概率分布直接對(duì)王快水庫(kù)各非一致性洪水序列進(jìn)行分布擬合，以K-S檢驗(yàn)及AIC準(zhǔn)則選擇各序列的最優(yōu)分布�；谧顑�(yōu)分布擬合結(jié)果，計(jì)算王快水庫(kù)非一致性序列單變量分布洪水設(shè)計(jì)值，運(yùn)用同頻率放大法對(duì)水庫(kù)1963年典型洪水過(guò)程進(jìn)行放大，得到基于非一致性序列單變量分布法的設(shè)計(jì)洪水過(guò)程線。與水庫(kù)不考慮下墊面變化（不考慮變異）的原序列P-Ⅲ曲線擬合設(shè)計(jì)成果對(duì)比表明，洪峰、年最大1日洪量、年最大6日洪量設(shè)計(jì)值減小幅度均小于10%，年最大3日洪量設(shè)計(jì)值減小幅度為1%-15%左右。 （3）考慮峰量相關(guān)性，基于水庫(kù)年洪峰序列、年最大6日洪量序列的邊緣分布結(jié)果，運(yùn)用Copula函數(shù)構(gòu)建二者的聯(lián)合分布，對(duì)兩變量聯(lián)合重現(xiàn)期、兩變量同現(xiàn)重現(xiàn)期及特定條件下的洪峰、洪量條件頻率進(jìn)行了分析，計(jì)算了非一致性洪水序列兩變量聯(lián)合分布設(shè)計(jì)值，采用變倍比放大法，推求了基于非一致性序列兩變量聯(lián)合分布的設(shè)計(jì)洪水過(guò)程線。與非一致性序列單變量分布對(duì)應(yīng)的設(shè)計(jì)成果及不考慮變異的原序列P-Ⅲ曲線擬合設(shè)計(jì)成果對(duì)比表明，非一致性序列兩變量聯(lián)合分布洪水設(shè)計(jì)值均大于非一致性序列單變量分布洪水設(shè)計(jì)值；基于非一致性洪水序列兩變量聯(lián)合分布法得到最大6日洪量設(shè)計(jì)值比原序列P-Ⅲ曲線擬合得到最大6日洪量設(shè)計(jì)值大，但洪峰設(shè)計(jì)值與原序列P-Ⅲ曲線擬合得到的洪峰設(shè)計(jì)值相比，依不同的重現(xiàn)期對(duì)比結(jié)果有所不同。當(dāng)重現(xiàn)期大于等于200年時(shí)，非一致性洪水序列兩變量聯(lián)合分布法得到的洪峰設(shè)計(jì)值小于原序列對(duì)應(yīng)的洪峰設(shè)計(jì)值，當(dāng)重現(xiàn)期小于200年時(shí)，非一致性洪水序列兩變量聯(lián)合分布法得到的洪峰設(shè)計(jì)值大于原序列對(duì)應(yīng)的洪峰設(shè)計(jì)值。 （4）將基于非一致性洪水序列單變量分布法得到的設(shè)計(jì)洪水過(guò)程和基于非一致性洪水序列兩變量聯(lián)合分布法得到的設(shè)計(jì)洪水過(guò)程分別作為水庫(kù)入庫(kù)洪水過(guò)程，按給定的調(diào)洪規(guī)則，對(duì)王快水庫(kù)進(jìn)行調(diào)洪計(jì)算，將得到的調(diào)洪成果分別與傳統(tǒng)方法對(duì)應(yīng)的調(diào)洪成果進(jìn)行對(duì)比，結(jié)果表明：非一致性序列單變量分布設(shè)計(jì)洪水過(guò)程對(duì)應(yīng)的最高庫(kù)水位及最大泄量均小于傳統(tǒng)方法對(duì)應(yīng)的最高庫(kù)水位及最大泄量，其中，最高庫(kù)水位減小值在1m之內(nèi)，最大泄量減小幅度不超過(guò)5%；非一致性洪水序列兩變量聯(lián)合分布設(shè)計(jì)洪水過(guò)程對(duì)應(yīng)的調(diào)洪成果與傳統(tǒng)方法的調(diào)洪成果相比，依不同的重現(xiàn)期對(duì)比結(jié)果有所不同，，當(dāng)重現(xiàn)期小于或等于200年時(shí)，最高庫(kù)水位及最大泄量有所增加，最高庫(kù)水位增加值在2m以內(nèi)，最大泄量增加幅度在1%以內(nèi)；當(dāng)重現(xiàn)期大于200年時(shí)，最高庫(kù)水位及最大泄量有所減小，最高庫(kù)水位減小值在1m以內(nèi)，最大泄量減小幅度在10%以內(nèi)。
[Abstract]:Due to a large number of flood control and water conservation projects in the Daqing River Basin, significant changes have occurred in the underlying surface of the basin, and the measured hydrological sequence (flood, runoff, etc.) no longer satisfies the conformance hypothesis. The design results obtained under the condition of the change of the underlying surface under the traditional hydrologic frequency analysis method have some risks. The influence of the change of the underlying surface on the design flood and the flood diversion of the reservoir is studied. The calculation of the flood control and the flood control of the reservoir under the condition of the change of the underlying surface are discussed. This paper takes the Wang quick reservoir of the upper reaches of the Henan branch of the Great Qing Dynasty as an example, and uses the probability theory and the mathematical statistics method to calculate the frequency of the non consistent flood sequence of the reservoir directly. Based on the design value of uncongruent flood sequence, the design flood of the reservoir under the condition of the underlying surface change is calculated, and the calculation of reservoir flood regulation is carried out. The quantitative influence of the change of the underlying surface on the reservoir design flood and the reservoir flood regulation is given in order to provide the technology for the revision of the design flood and the flood control dispatching in the Daqing River Basin under the condition of the underlying surface change. Support. The main research content and results are as follows:
(1) based on the traditional hydrological sequence variation diagnosis theory, a comprehensive diagnosis method of non consistent hydrological sequence variation points is proposed, which is divided into three steps: preliminary diagnosis, detailed diagnosis and comprehensive diagnosis. In the detailed diagnosis, a method of variable interval diagnosis for hydrologic sequence based on MWP verification is proposed, which combines the diagnostic conclusions of other methods, It is convenient to confirm the specific location of the variation point. Through the comprehensive diagnosis of the variation points of the flood sequence of the Wang fast reservoir, it is shown that all the sequences have been mutated and the variation points are all in 1979.
(2) the mixed distribution and the conditional probability distribution are used to direct the distribution of the uncongruent flood sequence of the Wang fast reservoir, and the optimal distribution of each sequence is selected by K-S test and AIC criterion. Based on the optimal distribution fitting result, the flood design value of the single variable distribution of the uncongruent sequence of the Wang fast reservoir is calculated, and the reservoir 1963 is applied to the reservoir by the same frequency amplification method. The typical flood process is magnified in the year, and the design flood process line based on the uncongruent sequence single variable distribution method is obtained. The comparison of the original sequence P- III curve fitting design results with the reservoir without considering the change of the underlying surface (without considering the variation) shows that the maximum 1 day flood volume of the flood peak is less than 10%, and the annual maximum 6 day flood volume is less than 10%. The decrease of the design value of the flood in 3 days is about 1%-15%.
(3) considering the peak quantity correlation, based on the annual flood peak sequence of the reservoir and the edge distribution of the annual maximum 6 day flood sequence, the joint distribution of the two persons is constructed by Copula function. The combined recurrence period of the two variable, the two variable recurrence period and the flood peak and the flood condition frequency under the specific conditions are analyzed, and the two variation of the non consistent flood sequence is calculated. A design flood process line based on the two variable joint distribution of non conformance sequence is deduced by using the variable double distribution design value. The comparison of the design results corresponding to the single variable distribution of non consistent sequence and the results of the original sequence P- III curve fitting design without considering the variation show that the uncongruent sequence of two variables joint distribution The design value of flood is greater than that of uncongruent sequence single variable distribution flood design value. The maximum 6 day flood design value based on the two variable joint distribution method based on the non consistent flood sequence two variables is larger than the original sequence of 6 days, but the design value of the flood peak is compared with the original sequence of P- III curve fitting the flood peak design value. When the recurrence period is more than 200 years, the design value of the flood peak is less than the original sequence corresponding to the original sequence when the two variable joint distribution method of the non consistent flood sequence is less than 200 years, and the flood peak design value obtained by the uncongruent flood sequence two variable joint distribution method is larger than that of the uncongruent flood sequence. The design value of the flood peak corresponding to the original sequence.
(4) the design flood process based on the uncongruent flood sequence single variable distribution method and the design flood process based on the two variable joint distribution method based on the non consistent flood sequence are respectively used as the reservoir flood process. According to the given flood regulation rules, the flood diversion calculation of the Wang fast reservoir will be calculated, and the results of the flood diversion will be transmitted respectively. The results show that the maximum reservoir water level and maximum discharge of the uncongruent sequence single variable distribution design flood process are less than the maximum reservoir water level and the maximum discharge amount corresponding to the traditional method. The maximum reservoir water level reduction value is within 1m, and the maximum discharge reduction range is not more than 5%. Compared with the traditional method, the result of flood regulation corresponding to the two variable joint distribution design flood process of the sexual flood sequence is different from the traditional method. When the recurrence period is less than or equal to 200 years, the maximum reservoir water level and maximum discharge increase, the maximum reservoir water level is within 2m, and the maximum amount of discharge increases. Within 1%, when the recurrence period is more than 200 years, the maximum reservoir water level and maximum discharge decrease, the maximum reservoir water level decreases within 1m, and the maximum discharge decrease is less than 10%.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV122

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