本文選題：SWAT模型 + 氣候變化�。� 參考：《華中師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文選取三峽庫區(qū)沿渡河流域作為研究區(qū)域,在遙感技術(shù)和地理信息技術(shù)的支持下,對(duì)現(xiàn)有的氣象實(shí)測(cè)資料和遙感影像進(jìn)行處理,分析研究區(qū)域氣候和土地利用／覆被變化的基本特征和規(guī)律。對(duì)研究流域的土地利用／覆被和土壤類型按照模型數(shù)據(jù)要求進(jìn)行重分類和編碼,利用近50年的氣象觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)建立適用于研究流域的天氣發(fā)生器。通過敏感性分析確定敏感性參數(shù),然后采用2001-2005年的徑流實(shí)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)與模擬值進(jìn)行參數(shù)校準(zhǔn),2007-2011年的徑流實(shí)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)模擬值進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了沿渡河流域的SWAT模型。最后采用假定情景方案,主要從水資源管理和利用的角度,模擬研究沿渡河流域氣候及土地利用/覆被變化的水文響應(yīng)。主要研究結(jié)果包括以下幾個(gè)方面： (1)流域氣候變化和土地利用/覆被變化的基本特征為：近50年來流域的平均氣溫呈下降趨勢(shì),年平均氣溫的變化傾向率為-0.003℃/10a；降水的季節(jié)分布不均,年際變化呈下降趨勢(shì),平均降水的變化傾向率為-5.216mm/10a。流域的土地利用類型以有林地、灌木林地、草地、和耕地為主,共占流域總面積的96%以上,近20多年來,耕地、草地和灌木林地的面積呈減少趨勢(shì),而有林地、建設(shè)用地的面積均呈增加趨勢(shì),土地轉(zhuǎn)移以灌木林地和草地向有林地轉(zhuǎn)入的面積最大。 (2)在ArcGIS軟件的支持下,建立模型所需的各種數(shù)據(jù)庫,并劃分出79個(gè)子流域,生成412個(gè)水文響應(yīng)單元(HURs),進(jìn)而構(gòu)建SWAT模型。模型敏感性分析結(jié)果表明SCS徑流曲線數(shù)(CN2)、土壤飽和水力傳導(dǎo)系數(shù)(SOL_K)、土壤可利用有效水量(SOL_AWC)以及基流alpha系數(shù)(ALPHA BF)是對(duì)該流域徑流影響最顯著的參數(shù)。采用Ens效率系數(shù)、相關(guān)系數(shù)R2、相對(duì)誤差Re作為模型模擬的評(píng)價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),校準(zhǔn)期三項(xiàng)指標(biāo)分別為：Ens效率系數(shù)=0.71,相關(guān)系數(shù)R2=0.76,相對(duì)誤差Re=9.1%,驗(yàn)證期為Ens效率系數(shù)=0.62,相關(guān)系數(shù)R2=0.68,相對(duì)誤差Re=-14.1%,模擬結(jié)果滿足模型的精度要求。 (3)假定氣候方案模擬分析表明,該流域多年平均流量隨氣溫的上升而減少,溫度平均每升高1℃,徑流減少0.62%；隨降水的增加而增多,降水平均每增加10%,徑流增加13.04%；隨降水的減少而遞減,降水平均每減少10%,徑流減少11.28%。年徑流變差系數(shù)隨著氣溫的上升而增加,但增幅較小,說明徑流量的年際波動(dòng)變化的劇烈程度較小。 (4)假定極端土地利用方案模擬分析表明,有林地涵養(yǎng)水源的效應(yīng)最強(qiáng),主要表現(xiàn)為汛期貯積降水,枯水期補(bǔ)給徑流,增加流域的可利用水量；另一方面,有林地能在一定程度上減少豐水期的徑流量、消減洪峰。有林地同時(shí)具備防洪抗旱雙重環(huán)境生態(tài)效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the Three Gorges Reservoir Area along the river valley is selected as the research area. Under the support of remote sensing and geographic information technology, the existing meteorological data and remote sensing images are processed, and the basic characteristics and laws of regional climate and land use / cover change are analyzed and studied. According to the requirement of the model data, the weather generator suitable for the study of the basin is established by using the meteorological observation data of the last 50 years. The sensitivity parameters are determined by sensitivity analysis. Then the parameters of the measured data of 2001-2005 years are calibrated with the simulated values, and the measured data of the runoff in 2007-2011 years are entered into the simulated values. On the basis of this, the SWAT model along the river valley is constructed. Finally, the scenario scheme is used to simulate the hydrological response of the climate and land use / cover changes along the river valley, mainly from the perspective of water resources management and utilization. The main results include the following aspects:
(1) the basic characteristics of climate change and land use / cover change in the basin are that the average temperature of the basin has declined in the last 50 years, the change tendency of the annual average temperature is -0.003 C /10a, the seasonal distribution of precipitation is uneven, the interannual change shows a downward trend, and the variation tendency of the average precipitation is the land use type of the -5.216mm/10a. basin. With forest land, shrub forest land, grassland and cultivated land, more than 96% of the total area of the basin was occupied. Over the past 20 years, the area of cultivated land, grassland and shrub land showed a decreasing trend, and the area of the land was increased, and the land transfer area was the largest in shrub land and grassland.
(2) under the support of ArcGIS software, the various databases needed for the model were established, and 79 sub basins were divided into 412 hydrological response units (HURs), and then the SWAT model was constructed. The results of the model sensitivity analysis showed that the number of SCS runoff curves (CN2), soil saturated hydraulic conductivity (SOL_K), available available water (SOL_AWC) and basic flow a The LPHA coefficient (ALPHA BF) is the most significant parameter for the runoff in this basin. Using the Ens efficiency coefficient, the correlation coefficient R2 and the relative error Re as the evaluation criteria for the model simulation, the three indexes of the calibration period are Ens efficiency coefficient =0.71, the correlation coefficient R2=0.76, the relative error Re= 9.1%, the Ens efficiency coefficient =0.62, and the correlation coefficient, The relative error is Re=-14.1%, and the simulation results meet the accuracy requirements of the model.
(3) assuming that the climate scheme simulation analysis shows that the annual average flow rate of the basin decreases with the increase of temperature, the average temperature increases by 1, and the runoff is reduced by 0.62%, with the increase of precipitation, the average precipitation increases by 10% and the runoff increases by 13.04%, with the decrease of precipitation, the decrease of the average precipitation by 10%, and the decrease of the runoff by 11.28%. year path. The difference coefficient increases with the increase of air temperature, but the increase is small, indicating that the interannual fluctuation of runoff is less severe.
(4) it is assumed that the simulation analysis of the extreme land use scheme shows that the effect of the forestland conservation water source is the strongest, mainly in flood season storage and precipitation, recharging runoff during the dry period, and increasing the available water in the basin; on the other hand, the forest land can reduce the runoff in a certain extent and reduce the peak of flood season. Ecological effects of heavy environment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：P332;P343.9

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