本文選題：水光互補(bǔ) + 虛擬水電��； 參考：《西安理工大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國環(huán)境污染、能源緊缺等問題日益凸顯,可再生能源得到了重視和發(fā)展,尤其是規(guī)�；墓夥l(fā)電得到了快速發(fā)展。但是,光伏發(fā)電存在著隨機(jī)性、間歇性、波動性等特點,這給電網(wǎng)的調(diào)度帶來了困難,也影響了光伏發(fā)電的并網(wǎng)消納。因此,采用水光互補(bǔ)的新思路,研究光伏發(fā)電并網(wǎng)消納問題,具有重要理論意義和應(yīng)用價值。本文以目前全球最大的黃河龍羊峽320MW光伏電站與龍羊峽、拉西瓦等水電站為研究對象,采用了一種全新的水光電互補(bǔ)協(xié)調(diào)運(yùn)行方式,研究光伏發(fā)電并網(wǎng)消納問題。旨在探討水光互補(bǔ)協(xié)調(diào)運(yùn)行的理論和方法,研究成果具有較強(qiáng)的系統(tǒng)性、科學(xué)性和可操作性,為水光互補(bǔ)提供了理論支撐。論文取得的主要研究成果如下:(1)構(gòu)建了水光互補(bǔ)協(xié)調(diào)運(yùn)行的理論與方法體系,為光伏的并網(wǎng)消納提供了新途徑。在對比了分析了水電與光電各自的特點、水光互補(bǔ)特性、水光互補(bǔ)的基本原理、水光互補(bǔ)的基本模式等基礎(chǔ)上,提出了一些水光互補(bǔ)協(xié)調(diào)運(yùn)行的新概念,建立了光伏出力預(yù)測和水光互補(bǔ)協(xié)調(diào)運(yùn)行模型,發(fā)展了水光互補(bǔ)協(xié)調(diào)運(yùn)行的理論與方法。(2)針對光伏的隨機(jī)性、間歇性、波動性等特點,以及水電的快速調(diào)節(jié)的優(yōu)點,分析了短期調(diào)度中水電對光伏的補(bǔ)償能力和水光互補(bǔ)電源的調(diào)峰能力,揭示了水光互補(bǔ)的機(jī)理,即通過水電一次補(bǔ)償光電鋸齒波動和二次補(bǔ)償光電的間歇性、波動性和隨機(jī)性;水電可以在短期調(diào)度中以容量支持光電,光電則可以在中長期調(diào)度和調(diào)峰運(yùn)行中以電量支持水電。(3)對比了水電與光電各自的特點,分析了水光互補(bǔ)性以及闡述水光互補(bǔ)的基本模式;研究水光互補(bǔ)的基本原理以及計算方法;提出了“虛擬水電”的概念,并分析其內(nèi)涵,將水電打包上網(wǎng)的新能源被視為水電站的“虛擬機(jī)組”。(4)針對龍羊峽光伏電站短期和超短期出力預(yù)測問題,建立了四種不同的預(yù)測模型:馬爾科夫鏈模型、逐步回歸預(yù)測模型、自適應(yīng)BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測模型和自適應(yīng)Elman神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型。分析了各模型的特點和優(yōu)點:馬爾科夫模型著重的是預(yù)測相鄰兩天的功率輸出值范圍,其建模過程簡單,易于實現(xiàn);BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)和Elman神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型適應(yīng)于小時出力的預(yù)測,采用自適應(yīng)優(yōu)化隱含層節(jié)點數(shù),通過網(wǎng)格搜索優(yōu)化得到準(zhǔn)確的參數(shù),其模型預(yù)測精度高;逐步回歸模型采用的是線性預(yù)測法,對晴天的出力預(yù)測較為準(zhǔn)確,但是陰天和雨天預(yù)測誤差較大。(5)建立了基于龍羊峽水光互補(bǔ)協(xié)調(diào)運(yùn)行的調(diào)峰能力最大數(shù)學(xué)模型,提出了基于模擬迭代的模擬優(yōu)化方法,研究了水光互補(bǔ)對龍羊峽調(diào)峰能力的影響。通過求解調(diào)峰能力最大模型,反推水光互補(bǔ)總出力過程。采用模型分別對晴天、陰天和雨天三種不同的典型模式進(jìn)行計算,結(jié)果表明:經(jīng)過水光互補(bǔ)之后,龍羊峽調(diào)峰能力分別可提高18%,9%和5%。采用模型進(jìn)行了長系列計算,結(jié)果表明:龍羊峽調(diào)峰能力平均可提高10%左右。(6)研究了水光互補(bǔ)對龍羊峽、拉西瓦兩水庫日水量調(diào)度的影響。晴天、陰天和雨天三種模式下的計算結(jié)果表明:經(jīng)過水光互補(bǔ)之后,龍羊峽一日的出庫水量變化很小,出庫水量變化量最大相差0.21%;此外,經(jīng)過拉西瓦水庫的反調(diào)節(jié)以后,水位波動幅度最大僅為1.32m,相對于未互補(bǔ)之前,增幅為0.07m,占拉西瓦水庫消落深度的0.58%,日水量調(diào)度基本不受水光互補(bǔ)影響。(7)分析了水光互補(bǔ)對下游水資源綜合利用的影響。由于拉西瓦水位最大增幅是0.07m,水量幾乎保持不變,故龍羊峽水光互補(bǔ)后對下游電站發(fā)電量幾乎無影響。由于拉西瓦水庫按下游綜合用水要求放水,下放的水量與水光互補(bǔ)無關(guān),因此水光互補(bǔ)協(xié)調(diào)運(yùn)行對下游梯級水電站調(diào)峰、調(diào)頻沒有影響。通過拉西瓦水庫反調(diào)節(jié),分析得出水光互補(bǔ)對下游綜合用水基本沒影響,滿足了黃河下游水資源綜合利用要求。
[Abstract]:With the environmental pollution, energy shortage and other problems become increasingly prominent, renewable energy has been paid attention and developed, especially the scale of photovoltaic power generation has been developed rapidly. However, the photovoltaic power generation has the characteristics of randomness, intermittency and volatility, which has brought difficulties to the adjustment of the power grid, and it also affects the grid cancellation of photovoltaic power generation. Therefore, it is of great theoretical significance and application value to study the problem of grid cancellation of photovoltaic power generation by using a new method of water and light complementation. This paper is based on the current world's largest the Yellow River Longyangxia 320MW photovoltaic power station and Longyangxia, Rasiva and other hydropower stations as the research object, and uses a new water and photoelectric complementary coordinated operation mode to study the photovoltaic power. This paper aims to discuss the theory and method of the complementary coordinated operation of water and light. The research results have strong systematic, scientific and operability, which provide theoretical support for the complementation of water and light. The main achievements of this paper are as follows: (1) the theory and method system of complementary coordinated operation of water and light is constructed, and the grid is connected to the grid for photovoltaic. On the basis of the analysis of the characteristics of hydroelectricity and electricity, the complementary characteristics of hydrooptic and light, the basic principle of the complementary water and light, the basic model of the complementary water and light, some new concepts of the complementary coordinated operation of water and light are put forward, the model of the photovoltaic output prediction and the complementary coordination operation of the hydrolight is established, and the complementation of the water and light complementation is developed. The theory and method of coordinated operation. (2) in view of the characteristics of randomness, intermittency and volatility of the photovoltaic, and the advantages of the rapid adjustment of the hydropower, the compensation capacity of the hydropower for the photovoltaic and the peak regulating ability of the hydrooptic complementary power supply are analyzed in the short term scheduling, and the mechanism of the complementation of the water and light complementation is revealed, which is to compensate the fluctuation of the photoelectric sawtooth through the water and electricity once and the two The second compensation is intermittent, undulation and randomness. Hydropower can support optoelectronic capacity in short-term scheduling, electricity can support electricity and electricity in medium and long term scheduling and peak regulation. (3) comparing the characteristics of hydroelectricity and electricity, analysis of the complementarity of hydroelectric and light and the basic model of complementation of water and light, and study the interaction of light and light. The concept of "virtual Hydropower" is proposed and the concept of "virtual Hydropower" is proposed, and its connotation is analyzed. The new energy for hydroelectric packaging is considered as the "virtual unit" of the hydropower station. (4) four different forecasting models are established to predict the short-term and ultra short term output of the Longyangxia photovoltaic power station: the Markov chain model, gradually The regression prediction model, adaptive BP neural network prediction model and adaptive Elman neural network model are used to analyze the characteristics and advantages of each model: the Markoff model focuses on the prediction of the power output range of two adjacent days, the modeling process is simple and easy to be realized, and the BP neural network and the Elman neural network model are adapted to the hour output. It is predicted that the adaptive optimization of hidden layer nodes is adopted, and the accurate parameters are obtained through the grid search. The prediction accuracy of the model is high. The stepwise regression model uses linear prediction method, which is more accurate, but the prediction error of cloudy and rainy days is larger. (5) a coordinated operation based on the complementary and coordinated operation of Longyangxia's water and light is established. The maximum mathematical model of peak capacity is proposed, and a simulation optimization method based on simulated iteration is proposed. The effect of water and light complementation on the peak adjustment ability of Longyangxia is studied. By solving the maximum model of peak shaving ability, the total force process of water and light complementation is pushed back. The models are calculated with three different typical models, sunny, cloudy and rainy. The results show that: After the complementation of water and light, the peak regulating ability of Longyangxia can be increased by 18%, 9% and 5%. by a long series of calculations. The results show that the average peak adjustment ability of Longyangxia can be increased by about 10%. (6) the influence of water and light complementation on the daily water scheduling of Longyangxia and Laxiwa two reservoir is studied. The calculation knot under three modes of sunny day, cloudy and rainy day is studied. The results show that after the complementation of water and light, the amount of water output in Longyangxia is very small and the maximum difference is 0.21%. In addition, after the reverse regulation of the Laxiwa reservoir, the maximum fluctuation of the water level is only 1.32M. Compared with the non complementation, the increase is 0.07m, which accounts for 0.58% of the falling depth of the Laxiwa reservoir, and the daily water quantity dispatching base. It is not affected by complementary water and light complementation. (7) the effect of water and light complementation on the comprehensive utilization of downstream water resources is analyzed. Because the maximum increase of the water level of Rasiva is 0.07m, the amount of water is almost constant, so the water and light of Longyangxia have almost no effect on the power generation of the downstream power station. Since the Rasiva reservoir is required to release water according to the comprehensive water use in the lower reaches, the amount of water released from the lower level is the same. The complementation of water and light has nothing to do with each other. Therefore, the complementary coordinated operation of water and light has no influence on the peak adjustment of the cascade hydropower stations in the lower reaches. Through the inverse adjustment of the Rasiva reservoir, it is concluded that the complementary water and light has no effect on the comprehensive water use in the lower reaches, and meets the requirements of the comprehensive utilization of water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：TV737

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