本文選題：引漢濟(jì)渭工程 + 指標(biāo)體系��； 參考：《西安理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：關(guān)中地區(qū)因其特殊的歷史地位和地理位置一直是陜西省的政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、文化中心,人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)迅速,導(dǎo)致用水量巨大;同時(shí),又是資源性缺水地區(qū),實(shí)現(xiàn)用水的自給自足較為困難。因此,引漢濟(jì)渭調(diào)水工程是緩解渭河流域關(guān)中地區(qū)近中期水資源短缺的重要措施之一。論文以引漢濟(jì)渭調(diào)水工程為背景,以優(yōu)選水庫群調(diào)度和配置方案為目標(biāo),開展相關(guān)方案的評(píng)價(jià)及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估研究,主要目的是為跨流域調(diào)水工程的建設(shè)施工、運(yùn)行管理提供技術(shù)支持。論文取得的主要研究成果有:(1)針對(duì)水庫群調(diào)度目標(biāo)和受水區(qū)水資源可持續(xù)利用準(zhǔn)則,采用專家咨詢法構(gòu)建了水庫群調(diào)度方案評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和水資源配置方案評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。(2)對(duì)引漢濟(jì)渭調(diào)水工程的調(diào)度和配置目標(biāo)進(jìn)行了分析,建立了模糊優(yōu)選模型、基于NMF的方案優(yōu)選模型和基于AGA的投影尋蹤模型三種方案評(píng)價(jià)模型。(3)采用模糊優(yōu)選模型、基于NMF的方案優(yōu)選模型和基于AGA的投影尋蹤模型三種方案評(píng)價(jià)模型,評(píng)價(jià)了多年平均調(diào)水15億m3情境下的4個(gè)單目標(biāo)調(diào)度方案,并對(duì)三種評(píng)價(jià)方法的評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果進(jìn)行一致性分析,得到了水庫調(diào)度的最優(yōu)方案。結(jié)果顯示:黃金峽水庫優(yōu)先供水,三河口水庫作為補(bǔ)充水源的模式下,以多年平均發(fā)電量最大作為目標(biāo)得到的調(diào)度方案最優(yōu)。(4)對(duì)引漢濟(jì)渭工程每年調(diào)水15億m3的引漢水水量配置的6種模型方案,采用模糊優(yōu)選模型、基于NMF的方案優(yōu)選模型和基于AGA的投影尋蹤模型三種方案評(píng)價(jià)模型進(jìn)行配置方案評(píng)價(jià),并對(duì)三種評(píng)價(jià)方法的評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果進(jìn)行一致性分析,得到了配置的最優(yōu)模型。結(jié)果表明:在供需平衡模型下得到的配置方案最優(yōu)。(5)對(duì)水資源配置系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了定性分析,識(shí)別了引漢濟(jì)渭跨流域調(diào)水工程的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子,建立了水庫群調(diào)度方案的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,采用逼近理想解的排序方法得到了各調(diào)度方案的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值。(6)結(jié)合方案評(píng)價(jià)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的結(jié)果,綜合分析水庫群調(diào)度方案的效果和風(fēng)險(xiǎn),為決策提供依據(jù),最后推薦了水資源調(diào)配的合理模型和最佳方案。
[Abstract]:Because of its special historical status and geographical location, Guanzhong region has been the political, economic and cultural center of Shaanxi Province, with rapid population and economic growth, resulting in huge water consumption; at the same time, it is also a resource-deficient region. It is difficult to achieve self-sufficiency in water use. Therefore, the diversion project is one of the important measures to alleviate the water shortage in Guanzhong area of Weihe River Basin. With the background of the diversion project from Han to Jiwei and the optimal reservoir group dispatching and allocation scheme, the paper carries out the evaluation and risk assessment of the relevant schemes, the main purpose of which is to construct and construct the water diversion project across the river basin. Operation management provides technical support. The main research results obtained in this paper are as follows: 1) aiming at the target of reservoir group operation and the criteria of sustainable utilization of water resources in the receiving area, The evaluation index system of reservoir group dispatching scheme and the evaluation index system of water resources allocation scheme are constructed by using expert consultation method. The dispatching and allocation objectives of water diversion project from Han to Jiwei are analyzed, and the fuzzy optimal selection model is established. Fuzzy optimal selection model, NMF based scheme optimal selection model and projection pursuit model based on AGA are used to evaluate the three schemes, which are based on NMF and projection pursuit model based on AGA. In this paper, four single-objective dispatching schemes with an average water transfer of 1.5 billion m ~ 3 for many years are evaluated, and the consistency analysis of the evaluation results of the three evaluation methods is carried out, and the optimal scheme of reservoir operation is obtained. The results show that the Jinxia Reservoir gives priority to water supply, and the Sanhekou Reservoir is used as a supplementary water source. The optimal scheduling scheme, which takes the maximum annual average power generation as the target, adopts the fuzzy optimal selection model for the six models of water diversion water allocation of 1.5 billion m3 per year for the diversion of water from Han to Jiwei projects. The optimal scheme evaluation model based on NMF and projection pursuit model based on AGA is used to evaluate the configuration scheme. The consistency analysis of the evaluation results of the three evaluation methods is carried out, and the optimal configuration model is obtained. The results show that the optimal allocation scheme based on the model of supply and demand is optimal. The risk of water resources allocation system is qualitatively analyzed, and the risk factors of water diversion project between Han and Ji-Wei river basins are identified. The risk evaluation index system of reservoir group dispatching scheme is established, and the results of project evaluation and risk evaluation are obtained by using the ranking method approaching the ideal solution. The effect and risk of reservoir group dispatching scheme are analyzed synthetically to provide the basis for decision making. At last, the reasonable model and the best scheme of water resources allocation are recommended.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4;TV697.12

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