本文選題：洪澇災(zāi)害 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估　； 參考：《湖南科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：洪澇災(zāi)害的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和恢復(fù)力評(píng)估一直是災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究的重要領(lǐng)域,對(duì)評(píng)估方法的探索也成為了研究熱點(diǎn)。本文主要討論了基于D數(shù)理論的洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型和恢復(fù)力評(píng)估模型。主要內(nèi)容如下:(1)針對(duì)洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估中的不確定性問題,提出了基于熵AHP和D數(shù)的洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型,即將洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系中的第三級(jí)指標(biāo)用D數(shù)表示,同時(shí)引入結(jié)構(gòu)熵權(quán)法確定相應(yīng)各級(jí)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,并基于D數(shù)合成法則給出了各地洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大小的排序方案,最后通過實(shí)例驗(yàn)證了該方法的可行性和有效性。(2)考慮了基于D數(shù)距離的洪澇災(zāi)害恢復(fù)力評(píng)估模型。首先基于壓力-狀態(tài)-響應(yīng)(PSR)概念構(gòu)建了用D數(shù)表示的洪澇災(zāi)害恢復(fù)力評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,并用結(jié)構(gòu)熵權(quán)法確定了各級(jí)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,建立了基于D數(shù)距離-TOPSIS方法的恢復(fù)力大小的排序方案,最后應(yīng)用實(shí)例驗(yàn)證了該方法的可行性。(3)討論了基于語言D數(shù)的洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型,相應(yīng)地用結(jié)構(gòu)熵權(quán)法確定了各級(jí)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,并給出了基于語言D數(shù)的洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大小的排序方案,最后討論了不同語言尺度函數(shù)下洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大小的評(píng)估結(jié)果,并將其與(1)中的結(jié)果進(jìn)行了比較分析。(4)建立了基于語言D數(shù)距離的洪澇災(zāi)害恢復(fù)力評(píng)估模型,并用熵權(quán)法確定了相應(yīng)各級(jí)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,構(gòu)建了基于語言D數(shù)距離—TOPSIS方法的洪澇災(zāi)害恢復(fù)力大小的排序方案,并結(jié)合實(shí)例與(2)中的結(jié)果進(jìn)行了比較分析。最后,對(duì)全文進(jìn)行了總結(jié)。
[Abstract]:The risk assessment and resilience assessment of flood and waterlogging disaster has been an important field of disaster risk research, and the exploration of assessment methods has also become a research hotspot. This paper mainly discusses the flood risk assessment model and resilience assessment model based on D number theory. The main contents are as follows: 1) aiming at the uncertainty in flood and waterlogging disaster risk assessment, a flood risk assessment model based on entropy AHP and D number is proposed, that is, the third level index of flood and waterlogging risk assessment index system is expressed by D number. At the same time, the structure entropy weight method is introduced to determine the weight of the corresponding indexes at all levels, and the ranking scheme of flood hazard risk is given based on the D-number combination rule. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the method are verified by an example. Firstly, based on the concept of pressure-state-response (PSRs), a D-number index system for evaluating the resilience of flood and waterlogging disaster is constructed, and the weight of every index is determined by the method of structural entropy weight. The ranking scheme of resilience based on D number distance TOPSIS method is established. Finally, the feasibility of this method is verified by an example. Finally, a flood hazard risk assessment model based on language D number is discussed. The weight of each index is determined by the method of structure entropy weight, and the ranking scheme of flood hazard risk based on language D number is given. Finally, the evaluation results of flood hazard risk under different language scale functions are discussed. A model for evaluating the resilience of flood disaster based on the distance of language D number is established, and the weight of the corresponding indexes at all levels is determined by entropy weight method. A ranking scheme of flood resilience based on the language D number distance TOPSIS method is constructed, and the results are compared and analyzed with an example. Finally, the full text is summarized.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TV87;X43

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