本文選題：喜馬拉雅山 + 冰湖潰決��； 參考：《冰川凍土》2016年02期

【摘要】：以西藏喜馬拉雅山地區(qū)的冰湖為研究對(duì)象,基于現(xiàn)有的冰湖潰決預(yù)測(cè)方法,提出了建立冰湖潰決預(yù)測(cè)方法的關(guān)鍵點(diǎn),即選取的指標(biāo)必須能夠體現(xiàn)冰湖的動(dòng)態(tài)變化特征.在定量分析的建模過程中應(yīng)該采用不確定性的數(shù)學(xué)理論,對(duì)于冰湖潰決可能性的等級(jí)劃分需要進(jìn)行合理性及實(shí)用性驗(yàn)證.選取壩頂寬度、湖水面距壩頂高度與壩高之比、冰湖面積和補(bǔ)給冰川面積為預(yù)測(cè)指標(biāo),通過對(duì)西藏喜馬拉雅山地區(qū)29個(gè)冰湖樣本進(jìn)行邏輯回歸分析,建立了冰湖潰決的預(yù)測(cè)模型,并用所有樣本進(jìn)行了交叉驗(yàn)證.結(jié)果表明:該模型能夠在分類應(yīng)用中取得較好效果,根據(jù)潰決冰湖累積百分?jǐn)?shù)隨冰湖潰決可能性大小的變化曲線,將冰湖潰決的可能性劃分為四個(gè)等級(jí).以黃湖為例,把湖水面距壩頂高度與壩高之比作為冰湖潰決的誘變指標(biāo),分析了冰湖潰決可能性大小的變化規(guī)律.結(jié)合現(xiàn)有的冰湖潰決預(yù)測(cè)的定性方法,討論了所建立的冰湖潰決預(yù)測(cè)模型的優(yōu)點(diǎn)和缺點(diǎn).
[Abstract]:Taking the glacial lakes in the Himalayan region of Tibet as the research object, based on the existing prediction methods of glacial lake outburst, the key point of establishing the prediction method of glacial lake outburst is put forward, that is, the selected index must be able to reflect the dynamic characteristics of the glacial lake. The mathematical theory of uncertainty should be used in the modeling process of quantitative analysis, and the rationality and practicability of the classification of the possibility of ice lake collapse should be verified. The width of the dam top, the ratio of the water surface to the height of the dam, the area of the glacial lake and the area of the recharge glacier are selected as the prediction indexes, and the logical regression analysis of 29 samples of the glacial lakes in the Himalayan region of Tibet is carried out. A prediction model of glacial lake outburst was established and cross-validated with all samples. The results show that the model can achieve good results in classification and application. According to the curve of cumulative percentage of collapsing ice lake with the possibility of ice lake collapsing, the possibility of ice lake collapse can be divided into four grades. Taking the Yellow Lake as an example, the ratio of the water surface to the height of the dam top is taken as the mutagenic index of the collapse of the ice lake, and the variation law of the possibility of the collapse of the ice lake is analyzed. Combined with the existing qualitative methods of prediction of glacial lake outburst, the advantages and disadvantages of the established prediction model of glacial lake outburst are discussed.
【作者單位】： 西南石油大學(xué)地球科學(xué)與技術(shù)學(xué)院;西南石油大學(xué)油氣藏地質(zhì)與開發(fā)工程國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;
【基金】：國(guó)土資源部地學(xué)空間信息技術(shù)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室開放基金項(xiàng)目(KLGSIT2015-01) 西南石油大學(xué)青年教師“過學(xué)術(shù)關(guān)”資助計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(201131010020)資助
【分類號(hào)】：P343.6

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