本文選題：氣候變化 + 水資源系統(tǒng)��； 參考：《東華大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：氣候變化深刻影響著水資源系統(tǒng)的供水和需水過(guò)程,進(jìn)一步加劇了水資源的供需矛盾。黑河流域在還未有效解決水資源供需分配不平衡問題,且流域生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化態(tài)勢(shì)尚未得到有效遏制的同時(shí),又面臨著黑河水量調(diào)度的要求。在氣候變化影響下,黑河流域水資源演變規(guī)律發(fā)生變化且出現(xiàn)新的水資源問題：流域水資源供需不平衡態(tài)勢(shì)加劇,社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)用水進(jìn)一步擠占生態(tài)用水,流域社會(huì)-經(jīng)濟(jì)-生態(tài)-環(huán)境整體效益有待進(jìn)一步提高。 為維持黑河流域的水資源安全,本文在融合現(xiàn)代水文水資源學(xué)研究新進(jìn)展的同時(shí),結(jié)合野外原型觀測(cè)、地理信息技術(shù)與數(shù)值模擬技術(shù)的優(yōu)勢(shì),從水資源系統(tǒng)學(xué)角度,系統(tǒng)辨識(shí)了氣候變化下水資源系統(tǒng)的相互作用機(jī)制,從水資源、可利用水資源、可供水、需水、缺水角度,識(shí)別了氣候變化對(duì)水資源系統(tǒng)的影響過(guò)程。 本文研究拓展了氣候變化對(duì)水資源系統(tǒng)的影響評(píng)估理論與方法。本文基于水資源系統(tǒng)的角度評(píng)價(jià)氣候變化對(duì)水資源系統(tǒng)的影響,以評(píng)估供水和需水預(yù)測(cè)為主線,將水文的常態(tài)過(guò)程和極值過(guò)程納入到水資源系統(tǒng)的影響評(píng)估中,重點(diǎn)關(guān)注供水量和需水量在時(shí)間節(jié)律和空間差異方面的變化,拓展了傳統(tǒng)氣候變化影響評(píng)估模式的研究范疇和方法。 與傳統(tǒng)氣候變化對(duì)水資源影響評(píng)估不同的是：本文結(jié)合SWAT水文模型和現(xiàn)代水資源評(píng)價(jià)技術(shù),先從水循環(huán)的演變規(guī)律出發(fā),整體識(shí)別氣候變化對(duì)水資源量、可利用水資源量和可供水量的影響,逐級(jí)反映氣候變化對(duì)供水的影響過(guò)程； 針對(duì)氣候變化對(duì)需水過(guò)程的影響評(píng)價(jià),本文基于物候變化規(guī)律,采用物候觀測(cè)資料和積溫閾值方法,識(shí)別了氣候變化對(duì)典型作物和天然植被生育期的影響,其技術(shù)核心是基于需水機(jī)理的物候預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)和需水評(píng)估技術(shù)； 在分析供需平衡時(shí),不僅考慮了傳統(tǒng)評(píng)價(jià)模式中的缺水量因素,還考慮了缺水時(shí)間和缺水區(qū)域,為黑河流域調(diào)水方案的修正提供技術(shù)支撐,克服了以往調(diào)水曲線研究對(duì)氣候變化考慮不足的問題。 在以上理論基礎(chǔ)及評(píng)估結(jié)果的支持下,從系統(tǒng)角度,提出基于水資源系統(tǒng)的集合應(yīng)對(duì)框架。在滿足自然規(guī)律的基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)水利工程群的優(yōu)化調(diào)度,控制水資源在時(shí)空尺度上的合理分布；調(diào)整社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展格局,使水資源在不同用水戶之間合理配置,滿足經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展需求。 本文研究的主要成果和結(jié)論如下： (1)變化環(huán)境下水資源演變規(guī)律及旱澇事件演變規(guī)律識(shí)別 根據(jù)太陽(yáng)黑子與水文氣象要素的關(guān)系,結(jié)合Morlet小波和Mann-Kendall兩種分析方法,將研究時(shí)段劃分為1960～1991年基準(zhǔn)期以及1992～2010年對(duì)比期。 黑河流域降水量和氣溫均呈增加趨勢(shì),且時(shí)空分布發(fā)生變化。上游豐水區(qū)域降水增幅最大、氣溫增幅較小,下游缺水區(qū)域降水減少、氣溫增幅最大。單場(chǎng)降水強(qiáng)度增大且降水時(shí)間推后集中在8、9月份,最高氣溫推后至7月中下旬發(fā)生。 河川徑流量增加,鶯落峽水文站徑流量由基準(zhǔn)期的15.61億m3增加為16.80億m3。對(duì)比期相對(duì)于基準(zhǔn)期,8-11月徑流量占全年徑流量的比例由43.78%增加為46.96%,徑流豐水期逐漸后移。 受調(diào)水工程影響,黑河中游地下水位下降,而下游地下水位埋深變淺。調(diào)水之后,中游地下水位下降幅度為2.96m左右,從上游到下游、距離河道越遠(yuǎn),地下水位降幅越大。黑河下游年均地下水埋深降低,降幅為0.20m,從東西兩河上游至下游,距離河道越遠(yuǎn),地下水位埋深變淺程度逐漸降低, 干旱發(fā)生次數(shù)和覆蓋范圍增加,干濕交替頻次增大,從上游到下游干旱持續(xù)時(shí)間加大。干旱之后第一場(chǎng)降水強(qiáng)度大于同時(shí)期平均降水量,以中游旱后降水強(qiáng)度最高、下游最小,旱后發(fā)生洪澇的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加。 干旱時(shí)期氣溫高于同期非干旱期氣溫,實(shí)際水汽壓低于同期值。隨著干旱持續(xù)日數(shù)的延長(zhǎng),氣溫增加、實(shí)際水汽壓降低；受干旱程度的影響,氣溫和實(shí)際水汽壓以6月份變化最大,其次是7月和8月；6月份氣溫和水汽壓干旱期與多年平均的差值從上游到下游逐漸降低。 (2)氣候變化對(duì)黑河流域水資源系統(tǒng)的影響 氣候變暖使黑河流域需水量呈增加態(tài)勢(shì),基準(zhǔn)期流域需水量為18.65億m2,對(duì)比期為21.23億m2,增幅為13.8%。除7月份以外,其他月份需水量均增加,其中需水量最大的月份依次為6月、7月和5月。需水呈現(xiàn)出明顯的空間差異：上游需水量5月份增加量最大,中游需水量以5月和8月最大,下游6月份需水比例提高。 隨著保證率的提高,氣候變化影響下黑河流域需水量整體呈增加趨勢(shì),以中游需水增加最大,且整體需水時(shí)間逐漸前移。對(duì)于流域整體的需水變化,在25%頻率下,以9月和5月需水量增加最大；50%頻率下,以8月和7月需水量增加最大；90%頻率下,以6月、5月和7月需水量增加最大。 氣候變化影響下,豐水年可利用水資源量增多,且汛期可利用水資源量進(jìn)一步增多；平水年可利用水資源量增加；枯水年可利用水資源量減少,且干旱時(shí)期可利用水資源量進(jìn)一步減少。90%頻率下,黑河流域可利用水資源量下降了0.91億m3,減幅為5.1%,干旱時(shí)期可利用的水資源量更��；50%頻率下,可利用水資源量增加了1.21億m3,增幅為5.8%,5-8月可利用水資源量增大；25%頻率下,可利用水資源量增幅為15.7%,4-8月汛期可利用水資源量增大。 缺水存在明顯的時(shí)空變化。豐水年缺水時(shí)間集中在4-5月,平水年缺水時(shí)間也為4-5月但缺水增加明顯,枯水年以6月份缺水增幅最大。黑河中游區(qū)域缺水率增大,干旱進(jìn)一步加大,且缺水時(shí)間逐漸往前推移；上游目前受氣候變化影響不明顯,供水基本可滿足需水的要求；對(duì)于下游,由于受到黑河近年連續(xù)豐水年的影響,其缺水率反而由22.0%降到15.9%,豐水年和平水年缺水率下降,枯水年缺水率微弱增加,缺水時(shí)間提前到3～4月。 (3)氣候變化影響下水資源系統(tǒng)的集合應(yīng)對(duì) 從水資源系統(tǒng)的角度提出了應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化影響的集合策略。在規(guī)劃層面,實(shí)施面向常態(tài)管理與應(yīng)急管理統(tǒng)一的集合管理方式,進(jìn)行組合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分區(qū),制定面向旱澇急轉(zhuǎn)的集合應(yīng)對(duì)預(yù)案；在實(shí)施層面,實(shí)施面向常態(tài)與極值過(guò)程的合理配置和水利工程群的聯(lián)合調(diào)度,對(duì)水庫(kù)汛限水位進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)控制,并優(yōu)化黑河流域分水方案。對(duì)于干旱而言,主要表現(xiàn)為水資源短缺問題,應(yīng)從水循環(huán)的自然過(guò)程和社會(huì)過(guò)程兩端入手,重點(diǎn)加強(qiáng)水資源在各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)的優(yōu)化利用,即通過(guò)合理開發(fā)、合理優(yōu)化、合理配置和統(tǒng)一調(diào)度,規(guī)避干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:Climate change has a profound influence on water supply and water demand in water resources system, which further exacerbates the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources. In Heihe basin, the imbalance of supply and demand of water resources has not been solved effectively, and the deterioration situation of the ecological environment has not been effectively checked. Meanwhile, the requirement of water dispatching in Heihe is also faced. Under the influence, the evolution law of water resources in the Heihe River Basin has changed and new water resources are emerging. The imbalance situation of water supply and demand is aggravated, the social and economic water is further occupied by the ecological water, and the overall benefit of the social economy ecological environment of the basin needs to be further improved.
In order to maintain the water resources safety of the Heihe River Basin, this paper combines the new progress of modern hydrology and water resources studies, and combines the advantages of the field prototype observation, the geographic information technology and the numerical simulation technology, and systematically identifies the interaction mechanism of the water resource system from the view of water resources systematics, from the water resources and the use of water. Resources can provide water supply, water demand and water shortage, and identify the impact of climate change on water resources system.
This paper expands the theory and method of the impact assessment of climate change on water resources system. Based on the view of water resources system, this paper reviews the impact of climate change on water resources system, and takes the water supply and water demand prediction as the main line, and integrates the hydrological normal process and extreme value process into the impact assessment of water resources system, focusing on the impact of water resources system. The change of water supply and water demand in time rhythm and spatial difference has expanded the research scope and method of traditional climate change impact assessment model.
The impact assessment on water resources is different from the traditional climate change. In this paper, based on the SWAT hydrological model and the modern water resource evaluation technology, first from the evolution of the water cycle, the overall identification of the amount of water resources, the amount of water resources and the water supply can be used as a whole, and the effect of climate change on the water supply is reflected by the stage by level.
In view of the impact of climate change on water demand, based on phenological changes, the effects of climate change on the growth period of typical crops and natural vegetation are identified by phenological observation data and accumulated temperature threshold methods. The key technology is phenological prediction based on water requirement and water requirement assessment technology.
In the analysis of supply and demand balance, not only the water shortage factors in the traditional evaluation model, but also the water shortage time and water shortage area are considered, which provide technical support for the correction of the water transfer scheme in the Heihe basin, and overcome the problem of the shortage of the previous study of the water transfer curve to the climate change.
With the support of the above theoretical basis and evaluation results, a set coping framework based on water resources system is proposed from the point of view of the system. On the basis of satisfying the natural law, the rational distribution of water resources on the space-time scale is controlled through the optimal scheduling of water conservancy engineering groups, and the economic development pattern of the society is adjusted to make water resources in different water users. Reasonable allocation to meet the needs of economic and social development.
The main results and conclusions of this paper are as follows:
(1) evolution law of water resources and identification of drought and flood events in changing environment
According to the relationship between sunspot and hydrometeorological elements, combining the two analysis methods of Morlet wavelet and Mann-Kendall, the study period is divided into 1960~1991 year datum period and 1992~2010 year contrast period.
The precipitation and air temperature in the Heihe River Basin are increasing, and the spatial and temporal distribution changes. The precipitation increase in the upstream region is the largest, the temperature increase is small, the precipitation in the downstream water shortage area is reduced and the temperature increases. The intensity of single field precipitation increases and the precipitation time is concentrated in the month of 8,9, the highest temperature is pushed back to the late mid 7 month.
The flow rate of river river increases, the runoff of yingyu gorge hydrologic station increases from 1 billion 561 million m3 of the datum period to 1 billion 680 million m3. relative period relative to the datum period, and the ratio of 8-11 month runoff to annual runoff increases from 43.78% to 46.96%, and the runoff period is gradually moved back.
Under the influence of water diversion project, the water level of the middle reaches of the middle reaches of Heihe falls, and the lower water level in the lower reaches is shallow. The lower water level of the middle reaches is about 2.96M, from the upstream to the lower reaches, the farther the river is, the greater the decline of the groundwater level. The lower groundwater depth in the lower reaches of the lower reaches of Heihe is reduced to 0.20m, from the upper and lower reaches of the East and the West rivers to the lower reaches. The farther away the river is, the lower the depth of groundwater table becomes.
The frequency and coverage of drought increased, and the frequency of dry and wet alternation increased, and the drought duration increased from the upstream to the lower reaches. The first rainfall intensity after drought was greater than the average precipitation at the same time. The rainfall intensity in the middle reaches of the middle reaches was the highest, the lower reaches the lower, and the potential of the flood after drought increased.
The temperature in the drought period is higher than the non drought temperature in the same period. The actual water vapor pressure is lower than that of the same period. With the extension of the drought duration, the temperature increases and the actual water vapor pressure decreases. The temperature and the actual water vapor pressure change most in June, followed by July and August, and the temperature and water vapor pressure droughts in June and the years average in June. The difference is gradually reduced from the upstream to the lower reaches.
(2) impacts of climate change on water resources system in Heihe Basin
The climate warming makes the water demand of Heihe basin increase, the water requirement of the base basin is 1 billion 865 million m2, and the contrast period is 2 billion 123 million m2. The increase of water demand in other months is 13.8%. except July. The largest water demand months are in June, July and May. The water demand shows obvious spatial difference: the upstream water demand increases in May. The largest volume of water demand in the middle reaches was in May and August, and the ratio of water demand in the lower reaches increased in June.
With the increase of the guarantee rate, the water demand in the Heihe basin is increasing under the influence of climate change, with the maximum water demand in the middle reaches, and the overall water demand is moving forward gradually. The water requirement of the whole basin is increased at the 25% frequency in September and May, and the water demand in August and July increases with the 50% frequency rate, and the 90% frequency is increased. In June, May and July, the maximum amount of water demand is increased.
Under the influence of climate change, the amount of water resources can be increased in the year of abundant water, and the amount of water resources can be further increased in flood season. The amount of water resources can be increased in the year of flat water, the amount of water resources can be reduced in the dry year, and the water resources can be reduced further by the.90% frequency in the dry period. The water resources in Heihe basin can be reduced by 91 million m3 The decrease is 5.1%, the amount of water resources available in the drought period is smaller; under the 50% frequency, the amount of water resources can be increased by 121 million m3, the increase is 5.8%, the amount of water resources can be increased in 5-8 months, and the amount of water resources can be increased by 15.7% in the 25% frequency, and the amount of water resources can be increased in the 4-8 month flood season.
The water shortage existed obvious spatio-temporal changes. The water shortage time in the year of abundant water was concentrated in 4-5 months, the water shortage time in the flat water year was 4-5 months, but the water shortage increased obviously. The dry water year was the biggest increase in June. The water shortage rate in the middle reaches of Heihe increased, the drought was further increased, and the water shortage was gradually moving forward; the upstream is not obviously affected by the climate change at present. Water supply can basically meet the requirements of water demand; for the lower reaches, the water shortage rate of Heihe has been reduced from 22% to 15.9% in recent years. The water shortage rate in the year of high water year is reduced, the rate of water shortage in the dry year is weak, and the time of water shortage is early to 3~4 months.
(3) the response of the water resources system to the impacts of climate change.
From the point of view of water resources system, a collection strategy to deal with the impact of climate change is put forward. At the planning level, a set management mode is implemented for the unification of normal management and emergency management, combined risk zoning, set up a set coping plan for drought and waterlogging, and a rational allocation of normal and extreme value process is implemented at the implementation level. The joint dispatching of the water conservancy project group will dynamically control the limited water level of the reservoir and optimize the water separation scheme in the Heihe basin. For the drought, the water resources shortage is mainly manifested as the shortage of water resources. It should start with the natural process of the water circulation and the social process at both ends of the water cycle, and strengthen the optimization and utilization of the water resources in each link, that is, through rational development and reasonable development, it is reasonable. Optimization, rational allocation and unified scheduling to avoid drought risk.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：P339;TV213

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