本文選題：水量變化 + 變異系數(shù)��； 參考：《自然資源學(xué)報》2016年11期

【摘要】：為科學(xué)明確評價塔里木河統(tǒng)一管理成效,論文基于源流及干流的來水與耗水量數(shù)據(jù),利用非參數(shù)檢驗(yàn)、周期疊加模型等構(gòu)建人類活動對源流區(qū)水量影響分離模型,進(jìn)而結(jié)合距平百分比和變異系數(shù)等參數(shù),對比分析統(tǒng)一管理措施對塔里木河利用管理水平的影響,結(jié)果表明:1)人類活動對源流區(qū)水資源的影響程度在1994—2001、2002—2010、2011—2013年呈減弱趨勢,流域過度引水的現(xiàn)象得到一定的好轉(zhuǎn),源流區(qū)水資源利用水平和管理效能提高;2)實(shí)施統(tǒng)一管理后,干流來水保證度提高,干流來水距平百分比的變異系數(shù)由-4.67減小至0.33,源流與干流來水距平百分比差異的平均值由-19.6%變?yōu)?4.9%,且源流干流來水差異值累積距平曲線由上升轉(zhuǎn)為下降,源流和干流來水的波動性減弱,尤其是干流來水波動性要弱于源流,同時源流及干流來水更具協(xié)調(diào)性,管理部門對塔里木河徑流的調(diào)度和管控能力明顯提升,統(tǒng)一管理成效顯著。
[Abstract]:In order to evaluate the effectiveness of unified management of Tarim River scientifically and clearly, based on the data of the source and main stream, the paper constructs a separation model of the influence of human activities on the water flow in the source area by using non-parametric test and periodic superposition model. Furthermore, combining the parameters such as anomaly percentage and coefficient of variation, the effect of unified management measures on the utilization and management level of Tarim River is compared and analyzed. The results show that the influence of human activities on the water resources in the source region decreased in the period of 1994-2001,2002-2010and 2011-2013, and the phenomenon of excessive water diversion in the river basin improved to some extent. The utilization level and management efficiency of water resources in the source area are improved. (2) after the implementation of unified management, the guarantee degree of water coming from the main stream is improved. The coefficient of variation decreased from -4.67 to 0.33, the average value of the percentage difference between the source stream and the main stream was changed from -19.6% to -4.9%, and the cumulative anomaly curve of the difference value between the source stream and the main stream changed from rising to decreasing. The volatility of the source stream and the main stream is weakened, especially the fluctuation of the main stream is weaker than that of the source, at the same time, the source and the main stream are more harmonious, and the regulation and control ability of the management to the runoff of the Tarim River is obviously improved. Unified management has achieved remarkable results.
【作者單位】： 新疆農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)林學(xué)與園藝學(xué)院;中國科學(xué)院新疆生態(tài)與地理研究所;新疆兵團(tuán)勘測設(shè)計(jì)院(集團(tuán))有限責(zé)任公司;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(41471099,31370551,31400466) 中國科學(xué)院“西部之光”人才培養(yǎng)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(XBBS-2014-13) 水利部公益性行業(yè)科研專項(xiàng)(201501060)~~
【分類號】：TV213.4
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本文編號：1863979