本文選題：洪水預(yù)報(bào) + ECMWF集合預(yù)報(bào)�。� 參考：《河海大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版)》2016年06期

【摘要】：基于歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報(bào)中心(ECMWF)集合降水預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品(預(yù)見(jiàn)期為10 d),提取淮河蔣家集以上流域的預(yù)報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)并進(jìn)行降尺度處理,驅(qū)動(dòng)洪水預(yù)報(bào)模型,對(duì)2008年8月的一次洪水過(guò)程進(jìn)行模擬預(yù)報(bào)。為探討ECMWF集合降水預(yù)報(bào)驅(qū)動(dòng)洪水預(yù)報(bào)模型的應(yīng)用效果,將模擬預(yù)報(bào)的結(jié)果與僅采用地面降水觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動(dòng)模型的模擬結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析。結(jié)果表明:采用ECMWF集合降水預(yù)報(bào)后,洪水模擬預(yù)報(bào)精度有明顯改進(jìn),可使洪水預(yù)見(jiàn)期提前48 h;洪水模擬預(yù)報(bào)流量過(guò)程線能刻畫(huà)洪水預(yù)報(bào)的不確定性范圍,可為防洪減災(zāi)提供科學(xué)決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Based on ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Term Weather Forecast) aggregate precipitation forecast product (forecast period is 10 days), the forecast data of Jiangjia-Jiexiao watershed in Huaihe River are extracted and downscale processing is carried out to drive the flood forecasting model. A flood process in August 2008 was simulated and forecasted. In order to discuss the application effect of ECMWF aggregate precipitation forecast driven flood forecasting model, the results of simulation forecast are compared with those of surface precipitation observation data driven model. The results show that the precision of flood simulation and forecast can be improved obviously by adopting ECMWF aggregate precipitation forecasting, and the flood forecast flow process line can describe the uncertain range of flood forecast. It can provide scientific decision basis for flood control and disaster reduction.
【作者單位】： 淮河流域氣象中心;河海大學(xué)水文水資源學(xué)院;水利部綜合事業(yè)局;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金(41201028,41130639) 淮河流域氣象開(kāi)放研究基金(HRM201205)
【分類號(hào)】：P338

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