本文選題：突變點(diǎn) + TOPMODEL模型��； 參考：《西安理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：西安市作為我國西部中心城市,供水安全與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會可持續(xù)發(fā)展密切相關(guān)。黑河金盆水庫作為西安市主要供水工程,全球變化條件下水庫入庫水量的變化將直接影響城市供水保證程度。開展黑河金盆水庫水源區(qū)的徑流變化特征分析,在此基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行徑流序列的修正計(jì)算,可為當(dāng)?shù)卣谖靼彩泄┧踩确矫嫣峁﹨⒖�。根�?jù)本文的分析計(jì)算,得到如下結(jié)論:(1)徑流變化特征:運(yùn)用有序聚類分析法和滑動T檢驗(yàn)法得出突變年份為1990年;徑流年內(nèi)分配極不均勻,其中6～10月份,占年徑流量的73.8%;運(yùn)用Kendall秩次檢驗(yàn)法,驗(yàn)證了黑峪口徑流總體上呈減少趨勢,且年、春、夏、冬各徑流序列的減小趨勢顯著,而秋季的徑流序列減小趨勢不顯著;用R/S分析法得出徑流序列(年、春、夏、秋、冬)的持續(xù)性較強(qiáng),即未來徑流量依然處于減小的狀態(tài)。(2)降水變化特征:研究區(qū)的降水量整體變化趨勢不明顯;年內(nèi)分配,降水量非常不均勻,其中6～10月份,占年降水量的75.8%;研究區(qū)的降水沒有與徑流一致的突變點(diǎn),也不存在明顯的遞減趨勢,故研究區(qū)徑流遞減的主因不是降水。(3)蒸發(fā)變化特征:研究區(qū)內(nèi)蒸發(fā)總體上呈減小趨勢,年、春、夏、秋、冬蒸發(fā)系列減小趨勢由大到小依次是年、冬、夏、秋、春;蒸發(fā)量在年內(nèi)分配中不均勻,其中6～10月份,占年降水量的53.5%;研究區(qū)的蒸發(fā)與徑流沒有相反的變化趨勢,故研究區(qū)徑流遞減的主因不是蒸發(fā)。(4)地形信息提取:基于Arcgis軟件,利用DEM提取研究區(qū)的流向矩陣、匯流累積量、河網(wǎng)、匯流長度、自然子流域、地形指數(shù)等地形信息。(5)徑流修正計(jì)算:將研究區(qū)劃分為6個子流域,研究期徑流系列分為突變點(diǎn)前與突變點(diǎn)后系列,利用遺傳算法優(yōu)選參數(shù),驗(yàn)證TOPMODEL模型在研究區(qū)的適用性;經(jīng)模型計(jì)算,研究期內(nèi)金盆水庫入庫水量的還原/還現(xiàn)修正值分別為5.500億m3、3.958億m3。
[Abstract]:Xi'an, as the central city in the west of China, is closely related to the sustainable development of economy and society. As the main water supply project in Xi'an Heihe Jinpan Reservoir will directly affect the guarantee degree of urban water supply under the condition of global change. Based on the analysis of runoff variation characteristics of Heihe Jinpan Reservoir water source area, the modified calculation of runoff sequence can be used as a reference for local government in Xi'an water supply security. According to the analysis and calculation of this paper, the following conclusions are obtained: the variation characteristics of runoff are as follows: by using ordered cluster analysis and sliding T test, it is concluded that the abrupt change year is 1990, and the runoff distribution is extremely uneven in October. Using Kendall rank test method, it was verified that the runoff of Heiyukou had a decreasing trend in general, and the decreasing trend of runoff series in spring, summer and winter was significant, but that in autumn was not significant. The precipitation variation characteristics of runoff series (year, spring, summer, autumn, winter) are obtained by using R / S analysis, that is, runoff is still in a decreasing state in the future. The precipitation variation trend in the study area is not obvious, and the distribution in the year is not obvious. The precipitation in the study area is very uneven. In October, 75.8 percent of the annual precipitation. The precipitation in the study area is not consistent with the sudden change point of runoff, and there is no obvious decreasing trend. Therefore, the main cause of runoff decline in the study area is not precipitation. (3) evaporation in the study area generally shows a decreasing trend, and the decreasing trend of evaporation series in year, spring, summer, autumn and winter is year, winter, summer, autumn and spring in order of year, winter, summer, autumn and spring; Evaporation was not evenly distributed in the year. In October, it accounted for 53.5% of the annual precipitation. There was no reverse trend between evaporation and runoff in the study area, so the main cause of runoff decline in the study area was not evaporation. 4) topographic information extraction: based on Arcgis software, Using DEM to extract the flow matrix, accumulation of runoff, river network, confluence length, natural subbasin, topographic index and other topographic information. 5) runoff correction calculation: the study area is divided into 6 subbasins. The runoff series in the study period can be divided into the series before and after the catastrophe point. The applicability of the TOPMODEL model in the study area is verified by genetic algorithm. During the study period, the reduction / reversion values of the water quantity in Jinpan reservoir are 550 million m ~ 3 and 395.8 million m ~ 3 respectively.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV697

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