本文選題：氣候變化 + 徑流量　； 參考：《四川師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文以松潘為研究對象,基于松潘氣象站1951-2014年近64a氣象觀測資料、紫坪鋪水文站1966-2001年近36a實測徑流數(shù)據(jù),采用線性傾向估計、小波分析法、曼-肯德爾突變檢驗法,詳細分析了研究區(qū)的氣溫、降水量、降水日數(shù)、極端氣溫的年際和季節(jié)變化趨勢、多時間尺度變化特征和突變性。并選用Pearson相關(guān)分析法進行氣候變化對徑流量的影響研究�？傮w而言,研究區(qū)氣候呈現(xiàn)“暖干化”趨勢,氣溫的突變比降水的突變頻繁,夏季降水對徑流量的影響最顯著。具體研究結(jié)果如下:(1)近64年以來,研究區(qū)年、四季平均氣溫均呈現(xiàn)出明顯波動上升趨勢,其中秋、冬季平均氣溫上升趨勢最顯著。春、夏、秋、冬四季平均氣溫長時間序列分別出現(xiàn)了 36a、9a、20a、28a的振蕩主周期。此外,研究區(qū)年平均氣溫、秋季和冬季平均氣溫在1993年均發(fā)生顯著突變;春季和夏季平均氣溫分別在1995年、1996年發(fā)生顯著突變。(2)近64年以來,研究區(qū)年平均降水量長時間序列呈現(xiàn)微弱的下降趨勢,并表現(xiàn)出以19a為主周期的強烈振蕩信號。該區(qū)春季和冬季平均降水量呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,夏季和秋季平均降水量則呈現(xiàn)微弱的下降趨勢。其中,春季、秋季和冬季分別表現(xiàn)出18a、9a、20a強烈的長周期振蕩信號,夏季表現(xiàn)出以5a為主周期的明顯振蕩信號。此外,除春季于1952年發(fā)生較顯著的突變,其它均無出現(xiàn)顯著突變點。(3)近64年以來,研究區(qū)年、四季平均降水日數(shù)長時間序列均呈現(xiàn)出微弱的波動下降趨勢,且年平均降水日數(shù)和冬季降水日數(shù)均表現(xiàn)出36a為主周期的明顯振蕩信號;春季、夏季、秋季分別表現(xiàn)出20a、2a、10a的振蕩主周期。其中,秋季在1957年出現(xiàn)顯著下降突變點,其它均無出現(xiàn)顯著突變點。(4)近64年以來,研究區(qū)年平均極端最低氣溫和極端最高氣溫長時間序列均呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,且年平均極端最低氣溫上升幅度較大,上升率為0.355℃/10a。年平均極端最低氣溫長時間序列表現(xiàn)出以3a、16a為主周期的微弱振蕩信號,且在1990年發(fā)生了突變;年平均極端最高氣溫長時間序列表現(xiàn)出以6a、17a、28a為主周期的強烈振蕩信號,并在1996年出現(xiàn)暖突變。(5)紫坪鋪水文站1966-2001年年徑流量與同期松潘各氣候要素的相關(guān)性都較弱,呈低度相關(guān)或弱相關(guān)。降水的變化對徑流量的影響要比氣溫的影響明顯,其中夏季降水及其變化的影響最顯著。并且只有松潘夏季降水量與紫坪鋪水文站年徑流量線性相關(guān)通過了顯著水平為0.05的顯著性檢驗。紫坪鋪水文站年徑流量與松潘年平均降水量、年平均降水日數(shù)、夏季和秋季降水日數(shù)的線性相關(guān)性都只通過了顯著水平為0.10的顯著性檢驗。而紫坪鋪水文站年徑流量與與松潘其它時間尺度的降水量、氣溫、降水日數(shù)的弱線性相關(guān)都未通過顯著水平為0.10的顯著性檢驗,不具有統(tǒng)計意義。這主要是由于松潘地區(qū)僅僅是岷江上游源頭區(qū)域,集水面積只是上游總集水區(qū)域中很小的部分,以及岷江源頭地區(qū)與岷江上游其它地區(qū)氣候相差十分懸殊。紫坪鋪水文站1966-2001年年徑流量與同期松潘年平均氣溫及秋、冬季平均氣溫均存在12a的一致性周期;紫坪鋪水文站年徑流量與松潘秋季平均氣溫,以及夏、冬季平均降水均存在5a的一致性周期;紫坪鋪水文站年徑流量與松潘春季平均降水則存在20 a的一致性長周期。
[Abstract]:Taking Songpan as the research object, based on the 1951-2014 year 64a meteorological observation data of Songpan meteorological station and 1966-2001 years' measured runoff data from Zipingpu hydrological station, the temperature, precipitation, precipitation days, interannual and seasonal extreme temperatures of the study area are analyzed in detail by linear tendency estimation, wavelet analysis and Mann Kendall mutation test. Pearson correlation analysis was used to study the influence of climate change on runoff. In general, the climate of the study area showed a "warm dry" trend, the abrupt change of temperature was more frequent than the precipitation, and the effect of summer precipitation on the runoff was the most significant. The specific results were as follows: 1 In the last 64 years, the annual average temperature of the four seasons has shown an obvious fluctuating trend. In autumn, the average temperature rising trend is the most significant in autumn. In spring, summer, autumn and winter, the long time series of mean air temperature in the four seasons is 36a, 9a, 20a, 28a, respectively, and the average temperature in the study area and the average temperature in autumn and winter are 1993 The average annual temperature in spring and summer had a significant sudden change in 1995 and 1996. (2) for the last 64 years, the long time series of annual mean precipitation in the study area showed a weak downward trend and showed a strong oscillating signal with 19A as the main cycle. The average precipitation in spring and winter in this area showed an upward trend in the spring and winter, in summer and in the summer. In autumn and winter, the average precipitation in autumn and winter showed a strong oscillation signal of 18a, 9a, 20a, and in summer, the obvious oscillation signal was shown as the main cycle of 5A. In addition, there was a significant mutation in spring in 1952, and no significant mutation was found in the rest of the year. (3) since the last 64 years, In the year of the study, the long time series of average precipitation in the four seasons showed a weak trend of fluctuation, and the annual average precipitation days and the days of winter precipitation showed the obvious oscillation signal of the 36a main cycle. In spring, summer and autumn, the main oscillation period of 20a, 2a, 10A was shown respectively. No significant mutation points were found in all the others. (4) for the last 64 years, the average annual mean extreme minimum temperature and the extreme maximum temperature in the study area were rising, and the annual mean extreme minimum temperature increased greatly. The increase rate of the average extreme lowest gas temperature in the /10a. year was in the 3a and 16A period. The weak oscillation signal was changed in 1990, and the long time series of the annual mean extreme maximum temperature showed a strong oscillation signal with 6a, 17a, 28a as the main cycle, and there was a warm sudden change in 1996. (5) the annual runoff of Zipingpu hydrological station was weak in relation to the climatic factors of Songpan at the same time in 1966-2001, and showed low correlation or weak correlation. The influence of the change of precipitation on the runoff is more obvious than that of the temperature, in which summer precipitation and its changes have the most significant influence. Only the linear correlation between summer precipitation in Songpan and the annual runoff of Zipingpu hydrological station has passed the significant test of a significant level of 0.05. The annual runoff of Zipingpu hydrological station and the annual average precipitation in Songpan, and the annual precipitation, and the annual precipitation of Zipingpu hydrological station The linear correlation of average precipitation days, summer and autumn precipitation days only passed the significant test of significant level of 0.10, while the annual runoff of Zipingpu hydrological station and the weak linear correlation with the other time scales of Songpan, the temperature and the number of precipitation days did not pass the significant level of 0.10, which did not have statistical meaning. The main reason is that the Songpan area is only the source area of the upper reaches of the Minjiang River, the water collection area is only a small part of the upstream total water collection area, and the difference between the source area of the Minjiang River and the other areas in the upper reaches of Minjiang River is very different. The annual runoff of the Zipingpu hydrological station in 1966-2001 and the average annual temperature and autumn of the same period and the average winter temperature in the winter and winter in the same period of Songpan. The consistency period of 12a exists, and the annual runoff of Zipingpu hydrological station, and the average temperature in autumn in Songpan, and the average precipitation in summer and winter have a consistent period of 5A. The annual runoff of Zipingpu hydrological station and the average precipitation in the spring of Songpan have a consistent long period of 20 A.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：四川師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：P467;P333.1

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