本文選題：梯級水庫 + 優(yōu)化調(diào)度　； 參考：《武漢大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：水庫洪水資源化可充分利用現(xiàn)有的水利工程條件,完善調(diào)度方案和操作規(guī)程,可達(dá)到防洪減災(zāi)、減少棄水、增加供水的目的,是實(shí)現(xiàn)水利發(fā)展的一條非工程措施,為加快水利發(fā)展提供“軟實(shí)力”。論文以三峽水庫、溪洛渡水庫、向家壩水庫、清江梯級水庫和丹江口水庫為研究背景,開展了水庫優(yōu)化調(diào)度規(guī)則和洪水資源調(diào)控技術(shù)研究與應(yīng)用,其中包括水庫群發(fā)電優(yōu)化調(diào)度不確定性分析、水庫群優(yōu)化調(diào)度函數(shù)研究、水庫群汛限水位聯(lián)合運(yùn)用和動態(tài)控制、梯級水庫汛末聯(lián)合蓄水調(diào)度研究和水庫多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化調(diào)度圖對氣候變化的自適應(yīng)研究。論文的主要工作和創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)如下： (1)闡述了洪水資源化研究目的和意義,綜述了水庫優(yōu)化調(diào)度規(guī)則提取、水庫中小洪水動態(tài)調(diào)度和水庫汛末提前蓄水調(diào)度的研究進(jìn)展,提出了現(xiàn)有相關(guān)研究存在的問題。 (2)探討了水文預(yù)報誤差、泄流能力、水位-庫容關(guān)系不確定性、汛限水位分期控制及不確定性組合情況對水電站群長期發(fā)電優(yōu)化調(diào)度的影響,采用隨機(jī)模擬法模擬不確定性因素,應(yīng)用逐次優(yōu)化法(POA)計算各種不確定性情況下的優(yōu)化調(diào)度結(jié)果。以三峽水庫與清江梯級水庫為例,計算結(jié)果表明,對水庫優(yōu)化調(diào)度的影響較顯著的為水文預(yù)報誤差、水位-庫容關(guān)系的不確定性和汛限水位的分期控制,影響較小的為水庫泄流能力的不確定性；汛限水位分期控制對水庫優(yōu)化調(diào)度的影響表明,挖掘水庫洪水資源化“潛力”的最佳時機(jī)為前汛期與后汛期。 (3)對三峽水庫與清江梯級水庫組成的混聯(lián)水庫群進(jìn)行結(jié)構(gòu)分析,其中單一水庫采用水量調(diào)度函數(shù)模擬指導(dǎo)水庫運(yùn)行,梯級水庫以時段末總蓄能最大為目標(biāo)函數(shù)將能量調(diào)度函數(shù)的因變量總出力在各庫水電站之間進(jìn)行優(yōu)化分配,指導(dǎo)梯級水庫調(diào)度運(yùn)行。實(shí)例應(yīng)用結(jié)果表明,相比常規(guī)調(diào)度方案,雙量調(diào)度函數(shù)能顯著增加混聯(lián)水庫群的興利效益,減少棄水,提高水資源的利用效率。 (4)建立了水庫群汛限水位聯(lián)合運(yùn)用和動態(tài)控制模型,在不降低水庫群防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的前提下,最大限度地發(fā)揮水庫群興利效益。以三峽梯級和清江梯級組成的混聯(lián)水庫群為例,分別按照原設(shè)計方案、梯級汛限水位單獨(dú)運(yùn)用方案、庫群汛限水位聯(lián)合運(yùn)用方案進(jìn)行調(diào)度運(yùn)行。應(yīng)用結(jié)果表明,開展混聯(lián)水庫群汛限水位聯(lián)合運(yùn)用調(diào)度,可顯著提高水庫的綜合利用效益,提高了洪水資源利用水平。進(jìn)一步建立了長期與短期調(diào)度規(guī)則耦合的梯級水庫汛限水位實(shí)時動態(tài)控制模型,在不降低原有防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的前提下尋求綜合利用效益最大的梯級水庫汛限水位實(shí)時動態(tài)控制方案。以清江梯級水庫為例,應(yīng)用結(jié)果表明,相比未耦合長期調(diào)度規(guī)則的梯級水庫汛限水位動態(tài)控制方案和原設(shè)計方案,提高了梯級水庫發(fā)電量和洪水資源利用率,為研究水庫群洪水資源化提供了一種新的思路和方法。 (5)建立了梯級水庫聯(lián)合蓄水調(diào)度模型。模型主要包括三個模塊：防洪風(fēng)險分析模塊、蓄水效益模塊和多目標(biāo)評價模塊。以溪洛渡-向家壩-三峽水庫為例,應(yīng)用結(jié)果表明,最優(yōu)同步蓄水方案和最優(yōu)異步蓄水方案,均可不降低原防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn),提高梯級水庫群的綜合效益,前者的發(fā)電效益較優(yōu),而后者的蓄水效益較優(yōu)。該模型可協(xié)調(diào)好防洪、發(fā)電、蓄水目標(biāo)之間的矛盾,為實(shí)現(xiàn)梯級水庫蓄水時機(jī)與蓄水進(jìn)程的協(xié)同優(yōu)選,提供了多目標(biāo)決策方案。 (6)建立了水庫調(diào)度圖對氣候變化的自適應(yīng)模型。該模型主要包括以下三個模塊：天氣發(fā)生器模塊；分布式可變下滲能力水文模擬模塊；優(yōu)化調(diào)度圖模塊。以丹江口水庫為例,多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化調(diào)度方式與常規(guī)調(diào)度方式相比,在不降低防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的前提下,生態(tài)供水保證率、多年平均生態(tài)供水量和多年平均發(fā)電量均得到了提高,且對下游供水量和南水北調(diào)工程調(diào)水量影響不大。
[Abstract]:The reservoir flood resource utilization can make full use of the existing water engineering conditions, perfect the scheduling scheme and operation regulations, and can achieve the purpose of flood control and disaster reduction, reduce the abandoning of water and increase the water supply. It is a non engineering measure to realize the development of water conservancy, and provides "soft power" for the development of water conservancy. Qingjiang cascade reservoir and Danjiangkou reservoir are the research background, and the research and application of reservoir optimal scheduling rules and flood resources regulation technology are carried out, including the uncertainty analysis of reservoir group power generation optimization scheduling, reservoir swarm optimization scheduling function research, reservoir group flood limit water level joint use and dynamic control, cascade reservoirs at the end of flood season combined storage. The main research work and innovations of the paper are as follows:
(1) this paper expounds the purpose and significance of the study of flood resource research, summarizes the research progress on the extraction of reservoir optimal scheduling rules, the dynamic scheduling of small and medium reservoirs and the advance storage scheduling of the reservoir at the end of the flood season, and puts forward the existing problems in the related research.
(2) the influence of the hydrological forecast error, discharge capacity, water level and reservoir capacity uncertainty, the influence of the instalment control and uncertainty combination of the flood limit water level on the long-term power generation optimization and dispatching of the hydropower station group is discussed. The stochastic simulation method is used to simulate the uncertain factors, and the optimal scheduling node is calculated by the successive optimization method (POA). Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir and the Qingjiang cascade reservoir as an example, the calculation results show that the influence of the reservoir optimization scheduling is more significant for the hydrological forecast error, the uncertainty of the water level and the reservoir capacity relationship and the instalment control of the limited water level of the flood season, and the indeterminacy of the reservoir discharge capacity is smaller, and the optimal dispatch of the limited water level of the flood water level to the reservoir is optimized. The influence shows that the best time to excavate the potential of reservoir flood is pre flood season and post flood season.
(3) structural analysis of the mixed reservoir group of the Three Gorges Reservoir and the cascade reservoir in Qingjiang, in which a single reservoir is used to simulate the operation of the reservoir by the water dispatching function, and the cascade reservoir takes the total energy of the energy dispatch function as the objective function to optimize the distribution of the energy dispatch function between the reservoirs and the hydropower stations. The practical application results show that, compared with the conventional scheduling scheme, the dual quantity dispatching function can significantly increase the benefit benefit of the mixed reservoir group, reduce the abandoning water and improve the utilization efficiency of the water resources.
(4) a model of limited water level joint use and dynamic control of reservoir flood is set up. The reservoir group benefit benefit is maximally exerts under the premise of not reducing the flood control standard of the reservoir group. Taking the Three Gorges cascade and the cascade reservoirs of Qingjiang as an example, according to the original design scheme, the cascade flood limit water level is used separately and the reservoir group is limited to the water. The application results show that the comprehensive utilization efficiency of the reservoir can be improved significantly and the utilization level of the flood resources is improved. The real-time dynamic control model of the cascade reservoir flood limit water level coupled with the long-term and short-term scheduling rules is further established. On the premise of reducing the original flood control standard, we seek the real-time dynamic control scheme of the flood limit water level of the cascade reservoir with the maximum benefit. Taking the Qingjiang cascade reservoir as an example, the application results show that the dynamic control scheme and the original design scheme of the cascade reservoir flood limit water level are improved compared with the uncoupled long-term scheduling rules, and the power generation and flood of the cascade reservoirs are improved. The utilization rate of water resources provides a new idea and method for the study of flood resource utilization of reservoirs.
(5) the model of cascade reservoir joint water storage scheduling is established. The model mainly includes three modules: flood control risk analysis module, water storage benefit module and multi target evaluation module. The example of Xiluodu Xiangjiaba Three Gorges reservoir shows that the optimal synchronous storage scheme and the optimal water storage scheme can not reduce the original flood control standard. The comprehensive benefit of the high cascade reservoir group is that the former has a better power generation benefit and the latter has a better water storage benefit. This model can coordinate the contradiction between flood control, power generation and water storage targets, and provides a multi-objective decision scheme for the coordinated optimization of the timing of the cascade reservoir storage and the process of storage.
(6) the adaptive model of the reservoir scheduling map to climate change is set up. The model mainly includes the following three modules: the weather generator module, the distributed variable infiltration capacity hydrologic simulation module and the optimal scheduling diagram module. The Danjiangkou reservoir is taken as an example, and the multi target optimization scheduling method is not reduced to the flood control standard compared with the conventional scheduling method. Under the premise, the guarantee rate of ecological water supply, the average annual ecological water supply and the average generation of electricity generation have been improved, and the water supply and water transfer in the south to North Water Diversion Project have little influence.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV697.12

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