本文選題：汛期分期 + 效應(yīng)評(píng)價(jià)　； 參考：《廣西大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：論文以水庫洪水資源化為研究目標(biāo)、以洪水季節(jié)性變化為切入點(diǎn),對(duì)水庫汛期分期劃定、分期設(shè)計(jì)洪水、分期汛限水位以及水庫汛期分期效應(yīng)評(píng)價(jià)展開研究。論文以廣西澄碧河水庫為工程實(shí)證分析,取得有價(jià)值的研究成果： 論文對(duì)實(shí)例工程1963～2011年的來水量、棄水量、蓄滿率以及水庫大壩工程條件、庫區(qū)周邊供水要求和當(dāng)?shù)厣鐣?huì)發(fā)展需要進(jìn)行分析,論證其實(shí)施汛期分期調(diào)度的可行性和必要性。通過對(duì)水庫日均降雨量的分析,劃定水庫的汛期為4月13日～10月31日,共202天,非汛期為11月1日～次年4月12日,共163天。 論文以分形理論方法為基礎(chǔ),利用多年日均降雨量序列、多年最大降雨量序列、多年平均日徑流量序列、多年最大日徑流量序列進(jìn)行分維的計(jì)算與分析,最終確定分期結(jié)果為：前汛期4月13日-6月6日,主汛期6月7日～9月9日,后汛期9月10日～10月31日。 論文通過相關(guān)性分析和理論頻率曲線分析推求分期設(shè)計(jì)洪水,并將三次樣條插值函數(shù)應(yīng)用到調(diào)洪演算當(dāng)中,最終以不降低工程防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn)為原則,結(jié)合現(xiàn)實(shí)和相關(guān)要求,確定水庫各分期的汛限水位為：前汛期185m,主汛期185m、后汛期185m-187.5m。 論文利用“效益-風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”理論對(duì)實(shí)施汛期分期調(diào)度進(jìn)行效應(yīng)評(píng)價(jià),計(jì)算結(jié)果表明：水庫汛期分期調(diào)度后將年均增加效益88～162萬元,相應(yīng)的,年均期望風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為22.635萬元,效益遠(yuǎn)大于風(fēng)險(xiǎn),說明適當(dāng)抬高水庫后汛期的汛限水位是合理可行的。
[Abstract]:Taking reservoir flood resource as its research goal and flood seasonal variation as the breakthrough point, this paper studies the classification of reservoir flood season, the design flood by stages, the limited water level by flood season and the evaluation of reservoir flood season effect. This paper takes Chengbihe Reservoir in Guangxi as an example and obtains valuable research results. The paper analyzes the quantity of water coming from the project from 1963 to 2011, the quantity of water discarded, the rate of storage, the condition of dam project, the requirement of water supply around the reservoir area and the local social development, and proves the feasibility and necessity of carrying out the operation by stages in flood season. Through the analysis of the average daily rainfall of the reservoir, the flood season of the reservoir is determined to be from April 13 to October 31, totally 202 days, and the non-flood period from November 1 to April 12, for 163 days. On the basis of fractal theory, the fractal dimension is calculated and analyzed by using the series of annual average rainfall, the series of annual maximum rainfall, the series of annual average daily runoff and the series of years' maximum daily runoff. The final results are as follows: from April 13 to June 6, from June 7 to September 9 in the main flood season, and from September 10 to October 31 after the flood season. Through correlation analysis and theoretical frequency curve analysis, the paper deduces the design flood by stages, and applies cubic spline interpolation function to flood control calculation. Finally, the principle of not reducing the flood control standard of engineering is taken as the principle, combining with reality and relevant requirements. It is determined that the flood limit water levels in each stage of the reservoir are: 185m in the previous flood season, 185m in the main flood season and 185m-187.5m in the latter flood season. Based on the theory of "benefit and risk", this paper evaluates the effect of stage operation in flood season. The results show that the annual benefit will increase by 88 ~ 1.62 million yuan per year, and the average annual expected risk will be 226350 yuan. The benefit is far greater than the risk, which shows that it is reasonable and feasible to properly raise the flood limit water level of the reservoir in the later flood season.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV697.1

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