本文選題：水文氣象分區(qū) + 線性矩法�。� 參考：《水文》2016年06期

【摘要】：以淮河流域為研究區(qū),利用地區(qū)線性矩法進行站點極值降雨的頻率分析。研究結(jié)果表明:基于氣象成因和水文統(tǒng)計特性相結(jié)合的方法將研究區(qū)劃分為6個通過異質(zhì)性和不和諧性檢測的水文氣象一致區(qū)。在此基礎上,通過蒙特卡羅模擬、均方根誤差和線性矩系數(shù)的相關(guān)圖綜合判斷得出各時段下6個一致區(qū)下的最優(yōu)分布。其中,24h時段下的最優(yōu)分布分別為:GEV、GNO、GLO、GEV、GLO、GEV。利用最優(yōu)分布計算出淮河流域各站點一整套(多時段多重現(xiàn)期)的頻率估計值。其中,最大值分布在沂蒙山區(qū),這與站點的實際觀測相一致。水文氣象分區(qū)線性矩法是一種穩(wěn)健可靠的頻率分析方法,可應用于其它流域。
[Abstract]:Taking Huaihe River Basin as the study area, the frequency analysis of station extreme rainfall was carried out by using the linear moment method. The results show that the study area is divided into six hydrometeorological consistent areas by heterogeneity and disharmony detection based on the combination of meteorological origin and hydrological statistical characteristics. On this basis, through Monte Carlo simulation, the root mean square error and linear moment coefficient of the correlation diagram comprehensive judgment of the optimal distribution under the six consistent regions in each period of time. The optimal distribution of GLOV in 24 hours was: Glou Glou, GLOV, GLOGEV, GLOGEV, respectively. The optimal distribution is used to calculate the frequency estimates of a whole set of stations in the Huaihe River Basin. The maximum value is distributed in Yimeng Mountain area, which is consistent with the actual observation. Hydrometeorological zonal linear moment method is a robust and reliable method for frequency analysis, which can be applied to other watersheds.
【作者單位】： 南京信息工程大學應用水文氣象研究院;昆山氣象局;海門氣象局;
【基金】：江蘇省青年基金項目(BK20141001) 淮河流域氣象中心開放項目(HRM201502) 江蘇省氣象局青年科研基金項目(Q201602)
【分類號】：P333.1;P339

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