本文選題：不確定性 + 風(fēng)險規(guī)避��； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2015年博士論文

【摘要】：長久以來,人類社會、經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展一直得益于水資源合理規(guī)劃管理,持續(xù)的高強(qiáng)度人類活動增加了水資源系統(tǒng)不確定性因子并加劇了水資源水環(huán)境危機(jī),不能實現(xiàn)預(yù)期目標(biāo)的水資源系統(tǒng)已反映出規(guī)劃和決策的失誤以及有效處理水資源水環(huán)境系統(tǒng)不確定性的重要性。并且,水資源系統(tǒng)中不確定性因素也將進(jìn)一步引發(fā)管理決策風(fēng)險,系統(tǒng)表征水資源系統(tǒng)中存在的不確定性因素以及規(guī)避系統(tǒng)決策風(fēng)險,并將其融入到水資源水環(huán)境優(yōu)化模型中已成為實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)水資源系統(tǒng)管理的關(guān)鍵。在全面辨識水資源系統(tǒng)特征及其復(fù)雜性的基礎(chǔ)上,本研究旨在開發(fā)能夠表征水資源水環(huán)境系統(tǒng)復(fù)雜性以及規(guī)避系統(tǒng)決策風(fēng)險的不確定優(yōu)化方法體系,構(gòu)建基于風(fēng)險規(guī)避的不確定性水資源優(yōu)化配置模型以及水量水質(zhì)聯(lián)合調(diào)控模型,反映風(fēng)險和系統(tǒng)收益之間的權(quán)衡關(guān)系,表征流域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、水資源開發(fā)利用、水環(huán)境污染保護(hù)之間的復(fù)雜關(guān)系,以流域水資源水環(huán)境系統(tǒng)為案例來驗證模型的科學(xué)性以及在實際水量水質(zhì)調(diào)控決策中的有效性。具體研究內(nèi)容包括：(1)針對水資源系統(tǒng)中信息的不確定性和隨機(jī)性等特點,在已有的不確定隨機(jī)理論方法基礎(chǔ)上,考慮目標(biāo)函數(shù)中隨機(jī)參數(shù)對風(fēng)險的影響,以區(qū)間數(shù)學(xué)規(guī)劃、隨機(jī)方法和條件風(fēng)險理論為基礎(chǔ),建立基于風(fēng)險規(guī)避的區(qū)間兩階段隨機(jī)水資源優(yōu)配置化模型；(2)針對流域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、水資源及水環(huán)境系統(tǒng)之間的互動性,基于不確定性隨機(jī)理論和下方風(fēng)險控制理論,建立隨機(jī)下方風(fēng)險水質(zhì)水量聯(lián)合調(diào)配模型,以處理水資源系統(tǒng)不確定性,平衡區(qū)域發(fā)展目標(biāo),規(guī)避水資源配置不均衡風(fēng)險；(3)以南四湖流域為案例,驗證模型的有效性。分析南四湖流域水資源水環(huán)境系統(tǒng)特征,針對流域水資源供需不平衡壓力,建立南四湖流域多水源多區(qū)域多用戶區(qū)間兩階段隨機(jī)水資源優(yōu)化配置模型,實現(xiàn)水資源合理規(guī)劃；針對流域水環(huán)境壓力日益突出的問題,基于不確定性隨機(jī)規(guī)劃及下方風(fēng)險控制理論,構(gòu)建南四湖流域水量水質(zhì)聯(lián)合調(diào)控模型,均衡區(qū)域發(fā)展目標(biāo),指導(dǎo)流域污染控制政策下水資源水環(huán)境優(yōu)管理�？傮w來看,本研究在對系統(tǒng)不確定性信息表征以及系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險規(guī)避等方面較之傳統(tǒng)確定性及不確定模型有一定的改善,同時提出基于風(fēng)險規(guī)避的水資源優(yōu)化配置及水量水質(zhì)聯(lián)合調(diào)配模型豐富了不確定性水資源水環(huán)境系統(tǒng)優(yōu)化理論,為實現(xiàn)社會、經(jīng)濟(jì)和水環(huán)境的協(xié)調(diào)、可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供理論和方法支撐。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the coordinated development of human society, economy and environment has benefited from the rational planning and management of water resources.The failure of water resources systems to achieve the expected objectives has reflected the failure of planning and decision-making and the importance of effectively dealing with the uncertainties of water resources and environment systems.Moreover, the uncertainty factors in water resources system will further lead to the risk of management decision, and the system represents the uncertainty factors in water resources system and avoids the system decision-making risk.It has become the key to realize the sustainable water resources system management by integrating it into the water resources environment optimization model.Based on the comprehensive identification of the characteristics and complexity of water resources systems, this study aims to develop an uncertain optimization method system that can represent the complexity of water resources and water environment systems and avoid the risk of system decision-making.The optimal allocation model of uncertain water resources based on risk aversion and the joint regulation model of water quantity and water quality are constructed to reflect the trade-off relationship between risk and system income and to characterize the economic development of river basin and the exploitation and utilization of water resources.The complex relationship between water environment pollution protection and water environment system of river basin is taken as an example to verify the scientific nature of the model and the validity of the model in the actual water quantity and water quality control decision.The specific research contents include: (1) considering the characteristics of uncertainty and randomness of information in water resources system, considering the influence of random parameters in objective function on risk, and taking into account the influence of random parameters in objective function on risk, the interval mathematical programming is used.Based on stochastic method and conditional risk theory, an interval two-stage stochastic water resources optimal allocation model based on risk aversion is established.Based on the uncertainty stochastic theory and the lower risk control theory, the joint allocation model of water quality and quantity is established to deal with the uncertainty of water resources system and to balance the regional development objectives.To avoid the risk of unbalanced allocation of water resources, the effectiveness of the model is verified by taking the Nansihu Basin as a case.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of water resources environment system in Nansi Lake basin, a two-stage stochastic water resources optimal allocation model for multi-source, multi-region and multi-user areas in Nansi Lake basin is established to realize the rational planning of water resources.In view of the increasingly prominent problem of water environmental pressure in the basin, based on the uncertainty stochastic programming and the theory of risk control under the basin, the model of joint regulation and control of water quantity and water quality in the basin of Nansihu Lake is constructed to balance the regional development objectives.To guide the optimal management of water resources and water environment under the policy of river basin pollution control.In general, this study has some improvements on the representation of system uncertainty information and system risk aversion, compared with the traditional deterministic and uncertain models.At the same time, the model of optimal allocation of water resources based on risk aversion and joint allocation of water quantity and water quality enriches the optimization theory of uncertain water resources and water environment system, in order to realize the coordination of society, economy and water environment.Sustainable development provides theoretical and methodological support.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X52;TV213.4

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