本文選題：吉林市城區(qū) + 降水徑流模型�。� 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文以可持續(xù)發(fā)展的水資源配置理論為基礎(chǔ)，在對吉林市城區(qū)第二松花江流域水資源現(xiàn)狀的調(diào)查與分析基礎(chǔ)上，進行流域地表水與地下水聯(lián)合調(diào)度模擬研究。主要從需水、供水和缺水等方面進行分析，在水資源供需平衡分析基礎(chǔ)上進行水資源配置，提出水資源合理配置方案。 以2010年為現(xiàn)狀年，分別選取2015年、2020年、2030年為近期、中期、遠期規(guī)劃水平年。采用定額法和萬元增加值法進行不同保證率下的需水預(yù)測。根據(jù)《吉林市2010年水資源公報》和《吉林市水利發(fā)展“十二五”規(guī)劃》進行不同保證率下的供水預(yù)測。在現(xiàn)狀水平年的情況下，，供水量能夠滿足需水要求，而在規(guī)劃水平年2015年、2020年和2030年，在95%保證率下出現(xiàn)供水量不能滿足需水要求的情況，缺水量分別為0.63億m3、1.32億m3、0.07億m3。 以水資源較突出的吉林市城區(qū)第二松花江流域為應(yīng)用實例研究區(qū)域，通過MIKE BASIN在吉林市地表水地下水聯(lián)合調(diào)度水資源規(guī)劃修編中的應(yīng)用，利用MIKE軟件建立了吉林市降雨徑流模型、地表水地下水聯(lián)合調(diào)度模型，模擬計算了1956~2010年降雨、徑流、供水及水庫調(diào)度等過程。預(yù)測了2015年、2020年、2030年水資源存在的問題和矛盾，包括缺水程度及地點，用水戶地下水地表水用水量、缺水量，工程布局合理性等。通過對模型的率定和驗證，得到精度較高的水資源網(wǎng)絡(luò)模擬模型。 根據(jù)研究區(qū)水資源特點，設(shè)計了基礎(chǔ)方案和改進方案，由配置結(jié)果可知，基礎(chǔ)方案中二松干流流域和溫德河流域在豐枯水月份均不缺水。鰲龍河流域、團山子流域和rd牛河流域在農(nóng)耕期有較大程度的缺水。改進方案中利用MIKE BASIN地下水模塊，調(diào)整地下水參數(shù)直到達到地下水限制開采量為止，發(fā)揮地下水與地表水相互補償作用，最終缺水問題得到很大程度的改善。因此所建立的地下水地表水聯(lián)合調(diào)度可以為吉林市水資源合理配置和經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Based on the theory of water resources allocation in sustainable development and the investigation and analysis of the present situation of water resources in the second Songhua River basin of Jilin City, this paper makes a simulation study on the joint operation of surface water and groundwater in the basin.Based on the analysis of water demand, water supply and water shortage, the water resources allocation is carried out on the basis of the analysis of water supply and demand balance, and the rational allocation scheme of water resources is put forward.Take 2010 as the current year, select 2015, 2020, 2030 respectively as the short term, medium term, long term planning level year.Quota method and ten thousand yuan added value method are used to forecast water demand under different guarantee rates.According to the Water Resources Bulletin of Jilin City in 2010 and the 12th Five-Year Plan of Water Conservancy Development in Jilin City, the water supply forecast under different guarantee rates is carried out.In the current level year, the water supply can meet the requirement of water demand, but in the planning level year of 2015, 2020 and 2030, the water supply can not meet the requirement of water demand under 95% guarantee rate, the water shortage is 63 million m33,#number1# m3,#number2# m3respectively.Taking the second Songhua River Basin of Jilin City, which has prominent water resources, as an example, the application of MIKE BASIN in water resources planning and revision of surface water and groundwater joint operation in Jilin City is discussed.The rainfall runoff model and surface water and groundwater combined operation model were established by using MIKE software, and the rainfall, runoff, water supply and reservoir operation process from 1956 to 2010 were simulated and calculated.The problems and contradictions of water resources in 2015, 2020 and 2030 are forecasted, including the degree and location of water shortage, water consumption of groundwater surface water, water shortage, rationality of project layout and so on.Through the rate determination and verification of the model, a water resources network simulation model with high accuracy is obtained.According to the characteristics of water resources in the study area, the basic scheme and the improved scheme are designed. According to the results of the allocation, the water shortage in both the Ersong main river basin and the Wende river basin is not limited in the month of abundant and dry water.Aolong River Basin, Tuanshanzi Basin and Rd Niu River Basin are short of water in farming period.In the improved scheme, MIKE BASIN groundwater module is used to adjust the groundwater parameters until the limit of groundwater exploitation is reached, and the mutual compensation between groundwater and surface water is brought into play. Finally, the problem of water shortage is greatly improved.Therefore, the combined operation of groundwater and surface water can provide decision basis for rational allocation of water resources and sustainable development of economy in Jilin City.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV213.4;P641.8

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