本文選題：社會經濟干旱　切入點：分布特征　出處：《人民長江》2016年S1期

【摘要】：根據(jù)廣西1990~2007年18 a的統(tǒng)計資料,采用頻率計算和等級劃分的方法分析了廣西干旱分布特征,并對因旱造成的人畜飲水困難、糧食減產和經濟損失等社會經濟影響,以及抗旱后解決人飲困難、減少農業(yè)經濟損失的情況進行了較為詳盡的分析。結果表明,受地形和降雨的影響,百色市和河池市等地區(qū)是旱災易發(fā)區(qū),且干旱程度較嚴重,因旱導致大量人口飲水困難,造成農田減產和巨額經濟損失。采取抗旱措施后,抗旱投入產生了明顯的社會和經濟效益。抗旱的效益費用比多年平均值為24.3,對于嚴重旱災為12.4,而對于中度旱災甚至達到70以上,抗旱效益顯著。通過水資源承載力分析和預測,到2020年廣西水資源人口承載力和水資源GDP承載力均大于預測規(guī)模,水資源量可滿足廣西社會經濟發(fā)展需求,跨區(qū)、跨流域調水是減少因水資源時空分布差異導致的社會經濟干旱損失的重要途徑。
[Abstract]:Based on the statistical data of 18 years from 1990 to 2007 in Guangxi, the distribution characteristics of drought in Guangxi were analyzed by the method of frequency calculation and grade classification, and the social and economic effects of drought on the difficulty of drinking water for people and livestock, the reduction of grain production and economic losses were also analyzed.And after drought relief, the situation of reducing agricultural economic losses is analyzed in detail.The results show that affected by topography and rainfall, Baise City and Hechi City are drought-prone areas, and the drought degree is more serious. Because of drought, a large number of people have difficulty drinking water, resulting in a reduction in farmland production and huge economic losses.After adopting drought-resistant measures, drought-resistant input has produced obvious social and economic benefits.The average cost of drought resistance is 24.3for severe drought, 12.4for severe drought, and more than 70 for moderate drought.Through the analysis and prediction of water resources carrying capacity, the population carrying capacity of water resources and GDP carrying capacity of water resources in Guangxi will be larger than the predicted scale by 2020, and the amount of water resources can meet the needs of Guangxi's social and economic development and cross regions.Interbasin water transfer is an important way to reduce the loss of socio-economic drought caused by the difference of temporal and spatial distribution of water resources.
【作者單位】： 廣西壯族自治區(qū)水利電力勘測設計研究院;
【基金】：廣西水利科技基金項目“廣西城市水生態(tài)文明建設及典型應用研究(2014) 南流江水資源三條紅線管理與控制制度研究(2014)”
【分類號】：P426.616;TV213.4

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本文編號：1693161