本文選題：后期扶持移民　切入點：風(fēng)險評價　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：依據(jù)國務(wù)院文件[2006]17號文件《國務(wù)院關(guān)于完善大中型水庫移民后期扶持政策的意見》和2011年國家進(jìn)行的后期扶持移民人口的核定結(jié)果：我國水庫后期扶持移民的總數(shù)已經(jīng)達(dá)到2381萬人,我國自1949年建國以來,為了促進(jìn)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會發(fā)展,興建了一大批水庫,在防洪、發(fā)電、灌溉、供水和保護(hù)生態(tài)環(huán)境等多方面發(fā)揮了巨大效益。為了維護(hù)移民權(quán)益和庫區(qū)社會穩(wěn)定,國家先后設(shè)立了庫區(qū)維護(hù)專項基金、庫區(qū)建設(shè)專項基金建設(shè)、后期扶持專項基金。 但是,物價上漲過快、各個地方因為財政原因?qū)е碌囊泼窈笃诜龀终卟唤y(tǒng)一、移民直接受益不夠、與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不相符的扶持標(biāo)準(zhǔn)偏低等各方面原因,導(dǎo)致仍然有相當(dāng)數(shù)量的移民生活在貧困之中,可能面臨諸多來自經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會、生態(tài)環(huán)境等方面的風(fēng)險,例如經(jīng)濟(jì)收入低、收入來源單一、缺乏創(chuàng)業(yè)技能和發(fā)展致富渠道。 移民風(fēng)險是嚴(yán)重社會問題發(fā)生的前兆,如果不能妥善的安置和幫助扶持移民恢復(fù)到原來生活水平、發(fā)展生產(chǎn),必然會引發(fā)移民風(fēng)險,影響庫區(qū)和移民安置區(qū)的地區(qū)社會穩(wěn)定。因此,全面的研究后期扶持移民風(fēng)險,系統(tǒng)總結(jié)移民風(fēng)險管理與風(fēng)險防范、水庫移民風(fēng)險評價與風(fēng)險控制的方法和原理,是做好移民工作的前提條件,是水庫發(fā)揮經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和社會效益的重要保障。因此,對后期扶持移民風(fēng)險進(jìn)行評價和分析具有重要意義。 本文以風(fēng)險管理學(xué)、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、社會學(xué)等相關(guān)理論為基礎(chǔ),綜合應(yīng)用風(fēng)險管理理論、多方博弈理論、人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論和BP算法等理論研究方法,結(jié)合定性分析與定量評價方法,在大中型水庫移民后期扶持政策實施情況監(jiān)測評估的基礎(chǔ)上,對后期扶持移民風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)全面的分析和量化評價,提出了幾點后期扶持移民風(fēng)險評價和風(fēng)險防范的建議。具體研究內(nèi)容有： (1)結(jié)合我國水利水電工程移民風(fēng)險的相關(guān)理論,建立了后期扶持移民風(fēng)險基礎(chǔ)理論,根據(jù)我國后期扶持移民風(fēng)險的含義、特點及風(fēng)險類型,分析了后期扶持移民風(fēng)險的產(chǎn)生原因,運用演化博弈論分析了后期扶持移民風(fēng)險演化的原理。 (2)在大中型水庫移民后期扶持工作要求的基礎(chǔ)上,遵循指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建的完備性、科學(xué)性、可靠性、針對性、可行性和簡明性原則,參考國務(wù)院1033號文件《后期扶持政策實施情況監(jiān)測評估指標(biāo)體系》,建立了后扶移民風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系。 (3)應(yīng)用BP人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)原理,在大中型水庫移民后期扶持政策實施情況監(jiān)測評估數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,建立了后期扶持移民風(fēng)險評價模型。本文選取河南省淅川縣進(jìn)行了實例研究,對淅川縣后期扶持移民平均的風(fēng)險程度進(jìn)行量化評價,驗證了在后期扶持移民風(fēng)險評價中應(yīng)用BP人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型的合理性。 (4)提出了移民風(fēng)險防范的建議。依據(jù)后期扶持政策解決后期扶持移民溫飽問題和移民安置區(qū)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施薄弱的突出問題的近期目標(biāo)、加強庫區(qū)和移民安置區(qū)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和生態(tài)環(huán)境建設(shè),改善移民生產(chǎn)生活條件,促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,增加移民收入,使移民生活水平不斷提高到當(dāng)?shù)剞r(nóng)村居民的平均水平的遠(yuǎn)期目標(biāo),從后期扶持移民風(fēng)險控制的時間節(jié)點出發(fā),提出了幾點在移民風(fēng)險不同階段進(jìn)行風(fēng)險防范和控制的建議。
[Abstract]:According to the documents of the State Council document No. [2006]17 "State Council on supporting the immigrant population improvement of the large and medium-sized reservoir resettlement support policy opinions and the 2011 national of the approved results: the total number of China's support for reservoir resettlement period has reached 23 million 810 thousand people in China since 1949, in order to promote national economic and social development, the construction of a a large number of reservoirs in flood control, power generation, irrigation, play a huge benefits in various aspects of water supply and protection of the ecological environment. In order to maintain the reservoir immigrant rights and social stability, the state has set up a special fund for reservoir maintenance, reservoir construction special fund construction, late support special fund.
However, prices rose too fast, because each of the local finance causes the resettlement support policy is not uniform, immigrants directly benefit enough, support low standards and other reasons are not consistent with the result of economic development, there are still a considerable number of immigrants living in poverty, may face many from economic, social, ecological and environmental risk etc. for example, the low income, single source of income, lack of entrepreneurial skills and the development of the rich channels.
Immigration risk is a precursor to serious social problems, if not properly placed and help support the immigrants to restore the original living standards, the development of production, will inevitably lead to immigration risk, influence of reservoir area and resettlement area social stability in the region. Therefore, immigration risk comprehensive research support system, summarize the immigration risk management and risk prevention the method and principle of immigration control, risk assessment and risk of the reservoir, is a prerequisite for the resettlement work, is an important guarantee for reservoir play economic benefits and social benefits. Therefore, the latter support immigration risk evaluation and analysis has important significance.
In this paper, risk management, economics, sociology and other related theories as the foundation, the comprehensive application of risk management theory, game theory, research methods of artificial neural network theory and BP algorithm theory, combining qualitative analysis and quantitative evaluation method in large and medium-sized reservoir resettlement support policy implementation based on the monitoring and evaluation of the late. Support the immigration risk evaluation analysis and quantitative comprehensive system, put forward to support immigration risk assessment and risk prevention suggestions. The detailed contents are late:
(1) combining the theory of immigration risk of water conservancy and Hydropower Engineering in China, the establishment of late stage support immigration risk theory, according to the China post support immigration risk meaning, characteristics and types of risk, analyzes the causes of late stage support immigration risk, using evolutionary game theory to analyze the principle of late stage support immigration risk evolution.
(2) on the basis of resettlement support requirements of large and medium-sized reservoirs, completeness, following the establishment of index system of scientific, reliability, pertinence, feasibility and simplicity in principle, with reference to the State Council document No. 1033 "late stage support policy implementation monitoring and evaluation index system was established to help immigrants", after the risk evaluation index system.
(3) the application of BP artificial neural network principle, in large and medium-sized reservoir resettlement support policy implementation monitoring and evaluation based on the data set up immigration risk evaluation model of late stage support. This paper selects Xichuan County of Henan Province as a case study, the quantitative evaluation for Xichuan County, the average degree of late stage support immigration risk, verify the rationality application of BP artificial neural network model in the evaluation of late stage support immigration risk.
(4) the proposed immigration proposed risk prevention. According to late stage support policy to solve the short-term goal of late stage support immigration problem of food and clothing and resettlement areas with poor infrastructure problems, strengthen the reservoir and resettlement infrastructure construction and ecological environment, improve the people's livelihood shift production and living conditions, promote economic development, increase the income of migrants. Immigration and continuously improve the standard of living to the long-term goal of the local average level of rural residents, starting from the time the node migration late stage support of risk control, put forward several points in the immigration risk at different stages of risk prevention and control recommendations.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV62;D632.4;TP183

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