本文選題：產業(yè)結構　切入點：用水結構　出處：《合肥工業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：產業(yè)結構與用水結構是影響區(qū)域經濟發(fā)展的兩個重要因素，研究它們的關聯性與協調程度對于區(qū)域的經濟增長、人民生活水平的提高具有極為重要的意義。 為確定中國經濟發(fā)展與水資源之間的聯系，在中國經濟發(fā)展、產業(yè)結構及水資源的現狀分析基礎上，采用VAR模型對經濟增長與水資源進行協整分析、Granger因果檢驗及脈沖響應分析。為分析區(qū)域經濟發(fā)展與用水結構的協調性問題和響應關系，以產業(yè)結構高度化水平、區(qū)域科技發(fā)展水平、對外開放水平、能耗水平為參考建立產業(yè)結構評價指標，以各行業(yè)用水消耗水平、可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平、居民生活用水結構水平為參考建立用水結構評價指標，，構建區(qū)域產業(yè)結構與用水結構協調評價體系，建立區(qū)域產業(yè)結構與用水結構在時間和空間維度上的協調度評價模型。對全國經濟及水資源原始數據進行處理計算，用層次分析法和熵值法確定指標權重，代入協調度評價模型得到全國產業(yè)結構與用水結構協調度水平排名。結果表明，中國經濟增長與水資源之間存在長期穩(wěn)定聯系；經濟增長是工業(yè)用水、農業(yè)用水變化的原因，總用水量的增加可引起GDP的增長；工業(yè)用水及農業(yè)用水對于GDP均有約束作用，且工業(yè)用水對GDP的影響較大；全國產業(yè)結構與用水結構在時間上基本協調，且有向中度協調發(fā)展的趨勢；產業(yè)結構水平不容樂觀；最后提出了調整產業(yè)結構、優(yōu)化用水結構的相應政策建議。
[Abstract]:Industrial structure and water use structure are two important factors affecting the development of regional economy. It is of great significance to study their relevance and coordination for regional economic growth and the improvement of people's living standard. In order to determine the relationship between China's economic development and water resources, and on the basis of the analysis of China's economic development, industrial structure and current situation of water resources, VAR model is used for cointegration analysis of economic growth and water resources. In order to analyze the coordination problem and response relationship between regional economic development and water use structure, the industrial structure is of high level. The level of regional scientific and technological development, the level of opening to the outside world and the level of energy consumption are taken as the reference to establish the evaluation index of industrial structure, the level of water consumption in various industries, the level of sustainable development, the level of water use structure of residents as the reference to establish the evaluation index of water use structure. A coordinated evaluation system of regional industrial structure and water use structure is constructed, and the evaluation model of coordination degree between regional industrial structure and water use structure in time and space dimension is established. The raw data of national economy and water resources are processed and calculated. The index weight is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method, and the rank of coordination degree between industrial structure and water structure is obtained by adding the evaluation model of coordination degree. The results show that there is a long-term stable relationship between economic growth and water resources in China. The economic growth is the reason of the change of agricultural water use, the increase of total water consumption can lead to the increase of GDP, both industrial water and agricultural water have binding effect on GDP, and industrial water has a great influence on GDP. The national industrial structure and water use structure are basically coordinated in time and have the trend of moderate coordinated development; the level of industrial structure is not optimistic; finally, the corresponding policy suggestions for adjusting industrial structure and optimizing water use structure are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV213.4;F124

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