本文選題：導(dǎo)流工程　切入點(diǎn)：多目標(biāo)決策　出處：《西南石油大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：施工導(dǎo)流貫穿水電站建設(shè)全過(guò)程,涉及到電站整體的規(guī)劃、投資、進(jìn)度、后期效益的實(shí)現(xiàn)等,其地位可謂是重中之重。因而在選擇導(dǎo)流工程方案時(shí),使其達(dá)到安全可靠、工期短、投資省、效益高顯得尤為重要�；诖�,論文對(duì)施工導(dǎo)流方案的多目標(biāo)比選決策進(jìn)行了研究,提出了基于網(wǎng)絡(luò)層次分析(ANP)的比選決策模型。 本文首先從導(dǎo)流工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要來(lái)源,自然因素、施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行了分析總結(jié),對(duì)全年導(dǎo)流圍堰的堰前水位超過(guò)圍堰設(shè)計(jì)擋水位的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率進(jìn)行了計(jì)算,采用決策樹(shù)法對(duì)自然因素和施工因素風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)求和,得到全年導(dǎo)流方案和枯期導(dǎo)流方案的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 其次,在工程安全、質(zhì)量、環(huán)保水保達(dá)到相應(yīng)國(guó)家標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的前提下,分析了導(dǎo)流工程多目標(biāo)比選決策通常采用的四個(gè)元素：工期、費(fèi)用、施工難易度以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率,并結(jié)合工程實(shí)踐增加了“工程效益”元素,對(duì)增加“工程效益”元素后構(gòu)成的五個(gè)元素的相關(guān)性進(jìn)行了進(jìn)一步的分析論證。 通過(guò)對(duì)層次分析法(AHP)、網(wǎng)絡(luò)層次分析法(ANP)、理想點(diǎn)法(TOPSIS)、主成分分析法(PCA)和因子分析法(FAM)的原理、適用范圍分析,基于導(dǎo)流工程方案決策元素的分析,針對(duì)元素之間的相關(guān)性以及定量指標(biāo)不易量化的特點(diǎn),采用網(wǎng)絡(luò)層次分析法(ANP)建立多目標(biāo)決策模型。模型求解過(guò)程中選擇定性與定量相結(jié)合的方式,運(yùn)用三標(biāo)度法構(gòu)造判斷矩陣,并通過(guò)最優(yōu)傳遞矩陣計(jì)算方式替代一致性檢驗(yàn),減少了工作量。 最后,將以上研究成果應(yīng)用于作者工程實(shí)踐的李家灣水電工程導(dǎo)流方案的比選中,建立李家灣水電工程導(dǎo)流方案ANP決策模型,得到方案的比選決策結(jié)果。此結(jié)果與各參建單位推薦的最終方案一致,說(shuō)明運(yùn)用ANP決策模型對(duì)導(dǎo)流方案進(jìn)行比選,貼合實(shí)際,具有簡(jiǎn)潔性、可操作性和使用性。
[Abstract]:Construction diversion runs through the whole process of hydropower station construction, which involves the whole planning, investment, progress and realization of later benefit of the hydropower station, and its status is the most important one. Therefore, when selecting diversion project, the project is safe and reliable. Because of the short construction period, low investment and high efficiency, this paper studies the multi-objective selection decision of construction diversion scheme, and puts forward a decision-making model based on network hierarchy analysis (NAHP). In this paper, the main risk sources, natural factors and construction risk factors of diversion engineering are analyzed and summarized, and the risk rate of water level in front of diversion cofferdam exceeding the designed water level of cofferdam is calculated. The decision tree method is used to sum up the risks of natural factors and construction factors, and the comprehensive risk of annual diversion scheme and dry period diversion scheme is obtained. Secondly, on the premise that the project safety, quality and environmental protection reach the corresponding national standard, the paper analyzes the four elements commonly used in the multi-objective selection decision of diversion engineering: time limit, cost, construction difficulty and risk rate. Combined with engineering practice, the element of "engineering benefit" is added, and the correlation of five elements after adding "engineering benefit" element is further analyzed and demonstrated. Based on the analysis of the principle and scope of application of Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), Network Analytic hierarchy process (NPP), ideal Point method (TopSISN), Principal component Analysis (PCA) and Factor Analysis (FAM), based on the analysis of decision elements of diversion project, In view of the correlation between elements and the difficulty of quantifying quantitative indexes, a multi-objective decision-making model is established by using the network analytic hierarchy process (ANPs). In the process of solving the model, a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods is chosen. The three-scale method is used to construct the judgment matrix, and the consistency test is replaced by the optimal transfer matrix calculation method, which reduces the workload. Finally, the above research results are applied to the comparison and selection of the diversion scheme of Lijiawan hydropower project in the author's engineering practice, and the ANP decision-making model of the diversion scheme for the Lijiawan hydropower project is established. The result is consistent with the final scheme recommended by the participating units. It shows that the application of ANP decision model to the comparison and selection of diversion schemes is practical, concise, operable and practical.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TV551.1

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 王育禮;王p，

本文編號(hào)：1647128